Want the Derby winner ?

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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Want the Derby winner ?
Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 2:30:56 PM
Focus more on the jockey than the horse.
Last 30 Derby winners had only 4 "no name" jockeys riding the winner and funny they did it 4 years in a row.

Chavez 2001
Espinoza 2002
Santos 2003
Elliott 2004

Most if not all the others are will be or are Hall of Fame Jocks.
Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 2:34:33 PM
That is why I like Bode/ Union Rags for the time being. Smith and Leparoux.
Chicapper PM Chicapper
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Posted: 4/25/2012 2:39:47 PM
Thats a terrible suggestion
Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 2:42:50 PM
Borel is money too, but I don't like Take Charge Indy at all.
Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 2:46:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Chicapper:

Thats a terrible suggestion

who cares what you think.
Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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Posted: 4/25/2012 2:54:12 PM
Well what about Johnny V, Garret Gomez, Javier Castellano, etc. Those guys must be chopped liver.
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/25/2012 3:02:36 PM
Imo, Leparoux will never win the KD.............
Chicapper PM Chicapper
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Posted: 4/25/2012 3:07:48 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Roused:


who cares what you think.

No one gives a garbage what yout think but you post ALL THE TIME.

The best jockeys in the country ride in the derby, and the ones who aren't the track leaders are all there for a reason.

Roused, you should be on the corner begging for change so you can pay off you debts!

Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 3:12:47 PM
Johnny V won it last year and he counts too. Just don't think his horse has a shot at all.
Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 3:13:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Imo, Leparoux will never win the KD.............


OK, so exchange wager me Union Rags. 6-1 ?
Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/25/2012 3:13:42 PM

Mario Gutierrez    



If you were the owner of a thoroughbred good enough to possibly win the Kentucky Derby,  why on earth would you put a jockey on him who has never even ridden one time at Churchill Downs.   And in one of the toughest race for any jockey to ride in?   



Makes no sense.    Unless he thinks he can get a horse to the Derby every year.   

Hell if I owned a Derby horse, much less one that could possibly win the race, I would never even consider Mario Gutierrez.    There's tons of better, more experienced jockeys out there he could have chosen.    


Can almost guarantee you he's going to regret that decision.   You can't learn to ride in the Derby by riding in a couple races before the actual race.   Gimme a break with that nonsense.     

Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 3:16:27 PM
No loyalty ?
Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/25/2012 3:24:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roused:

No loyalty ?



darn loyalty when it comes to more often than not a once in a lifetime chance at winning this race.   

Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:00:38 PM

I guess I can't bet on Daddy Long Legs for the same reason.    

Colm O'Donoghue has never ridden in the Derby or at Churchill either.

LINK    (click on the drop down menu "course".    It lists all the tracks he's ridden at since 2000).  Churchill isn't one of them.  


He's not that great of a jockey anyway.   7% for 3568 races?   



Here's an article about Daddy Long Legs by the way.   ARTICLE


It talks about his problems coming out of the gate in the BC Juvenile that I posted about previously on here.   He also jumped some shadows in the run to the turn.     But with this jockey, can't bet him to win at least.       


I kind of thought he might have a chance but forget it now.   

Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:06:06 PM

Sheldon Russell on Done Talking    


Forget about him too.   

Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:08:19 PM
You crack me up
Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:11:26 PM

ARTICLE about Sheldon Russell and Hamilton Smith   



I watched this horses videos of the Remsen and the Illinois Derby.     Saw some interesting things.    Something weird happened to him when they were entering the far turn at Hawthorne.   He was making a strong move and it looked like he had to slam on the brakes hard for some reason.  Maybe a horse outside him took his opening or something.   The charts don't mention it.

And in the Remsen he almost caught El Padrino and was 1 length from winning the race even though he had to come from last against a very slow pace.


Another one I was looking at who I thought had a chance but a no experience jockey is the end of that for me at least.   

Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:14:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roused:

You crack me up



I'm dead serious.   These horses are out for me.       You're the one who made the thread man.   You should be agreeing with me.     

Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:24:00 PM
I guess you had Alydar for all three Triple Crown races
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:27:27 PM
Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:34:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roused:

I guess you had Alydar for all three Triple Crown races




There's exceptions to every stat.   That doesn't mean you go against the percentages.    This is a tough race for a jockey with no experience.    That's a fact.    If you want your money riding on Mario Gutierrez, Sheldon Russell, and Colm O'Donoghue, go right ahead.   

Roused PM Roused
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:42:28 PM
Just playing Grey. I agree with you 100%
Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/25/2012 4:43:25 PM

DRF Article about jockeys with no experience in the Derby.   


ARTICLE

Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/25/2012 5:04:50 PM

I am going a little overboard though by tossing those horses just based on the jockey.     The jockey is only part of the handicapping equation.  Depends on how much importance you put on it I guess.   5%, 10%, 15%, 20% of your line?    


So without having made a line myself,  I'm going to take back the statement that I'm tossing them out and they have no chance.     Could be that despite the no experience jockey those horses turn out to be good value bets.    


Those horses aren't getting any points for the jockey factor though from me.   They are getting 0% in that category or maybe negative points.   

 Mario Gutierrez

CleeK111 PM CleeK111
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Posted: 4/25/2012 5:31:17 PM
Remember it has a lot to do with how well the track is playing that day...how the jockey adjusts to the track later in the day....which jockey is having the better finishes for the entire racecard..

I bring up all of those points because its not like these jockeys are just saddling up for one race.
I have changed my mind in the races leading up to the derby because of how well and poorly the jockey of the horse I liked was doing
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