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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: 2012 Kempom System
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#1101
Posted: 3/4/2012 10:28:38 AM
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#1102
Posted: 3/4/2012 10:39:26 AM
KP, sorry if I missed it but you alluded to providing some guidance around how you move your betting levels for plays. Without throwing you into some arthritic novel, can you highlight or point me to the post I may have missed?
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#1103
Posted: 3/4/2012 10:44:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mickalicious:

KP, sorry if I missed it but you alluded to providing some guidance around how you move your betting levels for plays. Without throwing you into some arthritic novel, can you highlight or point me to the post I may have missed?
  i believe kp said he is not going to discuss his personal money amounts - rather he's providing his insight and you can do whatever you want with that insight - gl mick - clem1
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#1104
Posted: 3/4/2012 10:52:21 AM

Ok, my apologies if 14-10 is the YTD updated record for the system plays and it went 2-1 yesterday.

I noticed a large amount of personal playes being made and just wanted to throw that out there!

At any rate, the moral of the story is the same...if it ain't broke, don't fix it! LOL

The system has been tested and time proven and seems to be of less risk with much more value.

With all do respect, I do not care to go back and search through the thread for Kine's personal plays yesterday and update his personal record from yesterday, but I do know this that in the long run playing a large amount of games never seems to work out for the majority of gamblers and I will say that most seasoned or veteran gamblers would have to agree!

The post was still an excellent example of this discussion and should certainly be considered when there are a large amount of personal plays being thrown out there.

Again, my apologies, and good luck to all today!

FUPM

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#1105
Posted: 3/4/2012 11:33:03 AM
Interesting day yesterday....We sneek UCLA, No ill, Cal Irv, N Mex and Dartmouth does not fold like a cheap suit again,,,UTAH ST last second 1 pt win........But..Pacific  is only real disappointment that never showed up...And st8 let down Wyoming,,

Good day KP..Lets roll Today 
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#1106
Posted: 3/4/2012 11:39:22 AM
Just read this entire string this morning, not bad guys... if I did this correctly, there is not a system play today, right?

Thanks for all your work on this, GL.
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#1107
Posted: 3/4/2012 11:40:44 AM
i dont see any system play for sunday
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#1108
Posted: 3/4/2012 11:52:22 AM
AGREE! - RISK LESS, WIN MORE.
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#1109
Posted: 3/4/2012 12:58:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MidniteWriter:

AGREE! - RISK LESS, WIN MORE.


How do you associate betting 330 a game vs 110 a game with less risk? 

And the more games bet, the more the risk is spread out to provide a level of protection from anomalies that occur during games.

 How many times have you had the right side of a game and lost the bet?  Washington / UCLA is a great example.  Washington was at +5 across basically every book.  Washington dominated the game and let it slip away, down 2 with 3.4 seconds left.  UCLA hits both free throws.  Instead of passing the ball in and shooting a desperation half court three while trying to draw a foul - they throw the ball out of bounds...untouched!  UCLA passes the ball in (under their own basket) and Washington decides to foul again (even though they are down four) and UCLA sinks both free throws for a ridiculous cover. (sorry to anybody betting Washington!) 

If Washington was your third game on your 3 team card - you've now gone 1-2 and now you have lost -330, even though you did your homework and had picked the right side. 


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#1110
Posted: 3/4/2012 1:29:09 PM

Please read post 1096 and if you don't understand the logic behind the statements being made than maybe we should dig a little deeper and sit down w a cup of hot coffee for this conversation

FUPM

good luck today!

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#1111
Posted: 3/4/2012 2:42:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mickalicious:

KP, sorry if I missed it but you alluded to providing some guidance around how you move your betting levels for plays. Without throwing you into some arthritic novel, can you highlight or point me to the post I may have missed?


Throughout the regular season I normally have around one play a day (sometimes zero, sometimes two, rarely more unless I find crazy value). 

There are numerous reason, but the main reason is we don't know who these teams are (most people's analysis is based strictly off blue ribbon and other pre-season publications). 

Go back and look at some of the lines from November and then try to imagine what the line would be now that we know who those teams are.  For example, Boston College opened as a pick-em at home against UMass back on Nov 21st, what would that line be now?  Umass would probably open as 6 to 10-pt favorite I would imagine. 

Until we have adequate sample size for stats and teams, its very hard to justify making "value" plays as we still don't know where the "value" truly is (hence playing the system at the end of the year). 

Also, I choose to bet a higher percentage of my bankroll per play in an effort to limit my plays as well (normally around 4-5% of my bankroll is one unit.)  Even one loss "hurts" and makes me reevaluate the play, study the game and what happened and makes me reassess the trends, stats and angles I used to make that play (also why I rarely watch a game live that I have money on, no objectivity). 

Now this number trends up or down based on how I'm doing.  If I have being winning and my bankroll is higher, the 1-unit play becomes a higher amount (Lets say for simple numbers I have a 10,000 bankroll, 5% would be 500 a play, if I have a good run and my bankroll is up to 15,000, then my 1-unit play now becomes 750), if I'm trending downward and my bankroll shrinking, the 1-unit play becomes a smaller amount (In the above example, lets say I lose six straight games when I have 10,000, now I'm down to 7,000 and my new 1-unit play becomes 350 instead of 500).  If you notice, this is exactly opposite of how most people do it.  Most gamblers, when they get hot, start to be even more selective of their bets as their bankroll hits new heights and right when they hit a rough patch, they start betting everything in sight in a misguided attempt to get back to the bankroll they had built up in the first place (we have all been there). 

Right now, I've have slightly "doubled" my bankroll since the beginning of college hoops season, so following the above logic, a 1-unit play for me now would be "double" what it was in the beginning of the season. 

Now this changes at the very end of the season for me as we will never have as much data on these teams as we do right now.  It my belief that you should trust what you know (believe) about these teams - who you like and play hard: Citadel, Marist, EMU and a few others for the last few weeks and the teams you think suck (or coach sucks or players quit etc.). 

I play many more games during the last week or so of the regular season/conference tourney based on the abundance of data that we now how and based on what I believe about these teams.  The only adjustment I make for having so many more plays is that I revert back to my original 1-unit play (so technically now 1-2% of my bankroll). 

This is why I found fupm's post so funny.  First, he didn't take the time to even understand the system or know how many plays there were before writing that huge post on how many games I should be playing.  Secondly, I literally play fewer games than almost any regular poster on this site (with the exception of the last week of the season which we are in right now) so he is "preaching to the choir". 
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#1112
Posted: 3/4/2012 2:43:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clem1:

  i believe kp said he is not going to discuss his personal money amounts - rather he's providing his insight and you can do whatever you want with that insight - gl mick - clem1


Thanks bud, just posted a bit more about this in post 1112 above
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#1113
Posted: 3/4/2012 2:47:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dr_Boilermaker:



How do you associate betting 330 a game vs 110 a game with less risk? 

And the more games bet, the more the risk is spread out to provide a level of protection from anomalies that occur during games.

 How many times have you had the right side of a game and lost the bet?  Washington / UCLA is a great example.  Washington was at +5 across basically every book.  Washington dominated the game and let it slip away, down 2 with 3.4 seconds left.  UCLA hits both free throws.  Instead of passing the ball in and shooting a desperation half court three while trying to draw a foul - they throw the ball out of bounds...untouched!  UCLA passes the ball in (under their own basket) and Washington decides to foul again (even though they are down four) and UCLA sinks both free throws for a ridiculous cover. (sorry to anybody betting Washington!) 

If Washington was your third game on your 3 team card - you've now gone 1-2 and now you have lost -330, even though you did your homework and had picked the right side. 




There is truth to both arguments to be sure.  First, I'm the very picture of limited plays so obviously I agree with that.  But, if you are a flat 1-unit bettor like me, than you can definitely feel more comfortable betting more games (check JFen, Harvey, Riccio and others for good examples of this as well). 

We can all agree that the problems occur when gamblers go "on tilt" and start betting BIGGER to recover loses and start "chasing" by just tailing over cappers and/or betting games because its the last game of the night etc. etc. etc.
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#1114
Posted: 3/4/2012 3:14:47 PM
anything your going on today?
I have ILL St+6 so far and an NBA play going,
what say you,lol.
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#1115
Posted: 3/4/2012 3:16:09 PM
Also riccios over,lol.
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#1116
Posted: 3/4/2012 3:29:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEG53:

anything your going on today?
I have ILL St+6 so far and an NBA play going,
what say you,lol.


Definitely Greensboro, might have a writeup later
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#1117
Posted: 3/4/2012 4:00:49 PM
KP, any thoughts on south alabama+9, elon+13.5 or ark. st.+10.5?
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#1118
Posted: 3/4/2012 5:12:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tonislug:

KP, any thoughts on south alabama+9, elon+13.5 or ark. st.+10.5?


Sorry, just saw this - Don't like any of them actually - gave South Alabama and Elon strong looks and while I like getting points, couldn't justify making either play
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#1119
Posted: 3/4/2012 5:12:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

 


Now this number trends up or down based on how I'm doing.  If I have being winning and my bankroll is higher, the 1-unit play becomes a higher amount (Lets say for simple numbers I have a 10,000 bankroll, 5% would be 500 a play, if I have a good run and my bankroll is up to 15,000, then my 1-unit play now becomes 750), if I'm trending downward and my bankroll shrinking, the 1-unit play becomes a smaller amount (In the above example, lets say I lose six straight games when I have 10,000, now I'm down to 7,000 and my new 1-unit play becomes 350 instead of 500).  If you notice, this is exactly opposite of how most people do it.  Most gamblers, when they get hot, start to be even more selective of their bets as their bankroll hits new heights and right when they hit a rough patch, they start betting everything in sight in a misguided attempt to get back to the bankroll they had built up in the first place (we have all been there).  . 

IMO, this is great money mgmt!!!!!     Too bad that i didn't use this for the last 30 years. It would have saved me a large yacht or a small lear jet....literally. So, to all you young guns, remember this if nothing else.  Also, do not chase....accept a losing day. And heaven forbid-------NO parlays or teases (if you must, only use .25 % of your bankroll). Remember, it is a grind, not a way to get rich over summer vacation.

I do not follow these rules......but, that is what it takes to be in the 3 out of 100 that BEAT sports.

Sports 

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#1120
Posted: 3/4/2012 5:14:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Sorry, just saw this - Don't like any of them actually - gave South Alabama and Elon strong looks and while I like getting points, couldn't justify making either play

 

thanks!

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#1121
Posted: 3/4/2012 5:15:12 PM
Greensboro +2.5 is the only play I'm on today and its a slightly larger than normal play.  In a nutshell, I like the matchup for Greensboro with Trev Simpson back and I question the legs of the starters for Western who have logged some serious minutes these last few days. 
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#1122
Posted: 3/4/2012 5:18:53 PM
@Kine

Do you use this system in March madness or do the capping yourself? What was your record for tournament last season if you remember?
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#1123
Posted: 3/4/2012 6:02:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaka123:

@Kine

Do you use this system in March madness or do the capping yourself? What was your record for tournament last season if you remember?


No, no system plays for March Madness.  I go back to my tried and true old-school numbers crunching analysis.  I only bet a few NCAA tourney games last year (should be no surprise to people who read my threads - I bet more on the CIT and NIT), but I did hit my biggest play of the year, Ohio St minus the points against my UTSA team.  Its back to matchup based breakdowns and reading on the mindset and energy of the teams playing in post-season games. 
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#1124
Posted: 3/4/2012 6:04:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HiHoldem:

IMO, this is great money mgmt!!!!!     Too bad that i didn't use this for the last 30 years. It would have saved me a large yacht or a small lear jet....literally. So, to all you young guns, remember this if nothing else.  Also, do not chase....accept a losing day. And heaven forbid-------NO parlays or teases (if you must, only use .25 % of your bankroll). Remember, it is a grind, not a way to get rich over summer vacation.

I do not follow these rules......but, that is what it takes to be in the 3 out of 100 that BEAT sports.

Sports 



Perfect advice from Texas Dolly!  Now the only hard part is following it
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#1125
Posted: 3/4/2012 6:09:40 PM
Kine, do you cap MLB.
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