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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: ***GWarner27's 11/15 NCAAB Picks (5-1 83.3% YTD)***
GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#1
Posted: 11/15/2012 8:16:18 AM

+3.95

Dogs 4-1 +2.95
Faves 1-0 +1.00
Over 0-0 +0.00
Under 0-0 +0.00
1st Half 0-0 +0.00
Halftimes 0-0 +0.00
Team Totals 0-0 +0.00
Buybacks: 0 +0.00


Posted records:
2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657
2009-10: 141-136-4 (50.9%) +1.294
2010-11: 114-79-4 (59.1%) +31.085
2011-12: 91-61-3 (59.9%) +23.88

Futures:
2010-11: 2-6-1 -1.08
2011-12: 2-2 +0.529

2012-13: 0-0 +0.00

November 5-1 +3.95
December 0-0 +0.00
January 0-0 +0.00
February 0-0 +0.00
March 0-0 +0.00
April 0-0 +0.00
quote
GWarner27
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#2
Posted: 11/15/2012 8:20:31 AM
SU winners: 1
OT record: 0-0

notes:
-Got my first SU dog win of the year as 12-point underdog Santa Clara won @SLU
-Didn't see as much of the game as I'd like, but it appears SC 2-guard Kevin Foster may not be crazy anymore dropping 30 in a tough game against a team that won a game in the tournament last year
-Tons of points were scored so I wonder what's going on with SLU's interim coach because they're not playing like Majerus would have them play

Guesses:
OSU 3.5
COL 5.5
BAY 15
NCSU 14
St. John 2
Bama 2.5
DREX 7
UMass 6
Murray 5
UGA 7
TCU 3
NEB 3
SMC 2
Nova 2
ARI 14

Leans:

on the radar:
Nova +2

...going to be looking at 2Hs most likely because nothing is lining up at the moment
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#3
Posted: 11/15/2012 8:33:08 AM
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GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#4
Posted: 11/15/2012 11:54:06 PM
Friday guesses:
UConn 5.5
FSU 4
PRIN 1
Cal 4.5
ND 4
Wazzu 2.5
UNC 6
ORE 5
ILL 2
TENN 3.5
BAY 6
DAY 4
PSU 2
NCSU 6

leans:
Hawaii +7

on the radar:
FSU +2
ND -3

locked in:
Wake Forest +12 (-110) vs. Connecticut
-Circled this one when I was prepping and it came out a touchdown higher than i had it. UConn had the huge win in Germany against Michigan State and I suspected that might give them an extra bump in the number but not this much. They are very talented in the backcourt, but let's not forget they have two water bugs. I think that benefits WFU's C.J. Harris who could lead the ACC in scoring this year because he won't have hands in his face. The UConn frontcourt is a disaster returning a pick-n-pop 5 man and a grossly undersized 4. Wake doesn't have Tim Duncan inside anymore, but Bzdelik did all he could to grab stocky big men who will make it difficult for a team like UConn to rebound. Extra possessions means extra scoring opportunities and that will tire a thin Huskies squad and possibly put the result in doubt.

...i would play WFU at the current number of 10
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#5
Posted: 11/16/2012 5:32:52 AM
GWarner,   Nice grab on the early line.  Seems that UConn almost always has great guard play and after watching them in Germany think again that is what will  drive this squad.  I don't see as big a difference in overall size that I think you inferring (water bugs )  in regards to the 6'3" Harris.   Granted the two starters are a couple inches shorter, but all the other guards are as tall or taller.  If it becomes an obvious problem I could see Boatwright and Napier splitting duties with other players or even going three guards, like they occasionally did in Germany. It will be interesting to see as the year progresses how the 6'7" German kid Neilz I think, turns out contributing. I'm wondering if the guard heavy roster lends itself to a lot of 3 guard sets similar to the way Novas recently played.  Not saying by any means that at +12 you don't have a good bet, just saying Harris's size factor may not play as big a role as you think.  I'll probably be seeing a number south of 10 and will probably sit this one out.

     I watched the entire Friar/UMass game last night and came away impressed how hard Cooley has those guys playing.  They'll struggle again this year because of depth ( Council's injury has killed them early) but will be competitive and worth an occasional look see, and spot play. I know they're not your favorite squad but value is value no matter who it is. Think they'll play well against teams that will allow or force pace, like UMass.  Mid season re-enforcements will only help.

   BOL  tonight and in the season ahead.
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Orangemen44
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#6
Posted: 11/16/2012 5:45:54 AM
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#7
Posted: 11/16/2012 6:24:05 AM
Bol...on wf myself
Posted using a mobile device.
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#8
Posted: 11/16/2012 7:01:25 AM
   My bad GWarner,  the German kids name's Neils Giffey.   A couple other German players on the roster, as we saw when the sang the National Anthems of both countries in the MSU tilt.  BOL
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GWarner27
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#9
Posted: 11/16/2012 9:26:24 AM
Quanza, orange-- thanks

add
Tennessee -1 (-110) vs. Oklahoma State
-OSU has been a preseason darling this year due to super-recruit Marcus Smart, but we have heard this before. The Pokes look better but still aren't a team i see winning tough games away from Gallagher-Iba Arena. Yesterday they were great in transition, mainly because Akron was terrible and transition limits what their big shotblocker can do. UT is banged up missing stud F Jeronne Maymon, but they should be able to capitalize on the gap in OSU's frontcourt which gave up a ton of offensive rebounds yesterday to a far from strong team on the boards. I would probably give OSU the advantage if this is an up-and-down game, but I don't expect it to be especially when we are looking at a rare college b2b. Trae Golden's experience is huge for the Vols, but the interior is where they will win this game.
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#10
Posted: 11/16/2012 10:04:18 AM
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#11
Posted: 11/16/2012 10:05:37 AM
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TRoe15
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#12
Posted: 11/16/2012 10:34:03 AM
Look who's off to a hot start...


quote
GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#13
Posted: 11/16/2012 11:39:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRoe15:

Look who's off to a hot start...



Tennessee tryin to ruin it, completely outplayed so far. Thanks for noticing!!!!

Gallo, dogg-- thanks 
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GWarner27
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#14
Posted: 11/16/2012 11:58:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 222bad:

GWarner,   Nice grab on the early line.  Seems that UConn almost always has great guard play and after watching them in Germany think again that is what will  drive this squad.  I don't see as big a difference in overall size that I think you inferring (water bugs )  in regards to the 6'3" Harris.   Granted the two starters are a couple inches shorter, but all the other guards are as tall or taller.  If it becomes an obvious problem I could see Boatwright and Napier splitting duties with other players or even going three guards, like they occasionally did in Germany. It will be interesting to see as the year progresses how the 6'7" German kid Neilz I think, turns out contributing. I'm wondering if the guard heavy roster lends itself to a lot of 3 guard sets similar to the way Novas recently played.  Not saying by any means that at +12 you don't have a good bet, just saying Harris's size factor may not play as big a role as you think.  I'll probably be seeing a number south of 10 and will probably sit this one out.

     I watched the entire Friar/UMass game last night and came away impressed how hard Cooley has those guys playing.  They'll struggle again this year because of depth ( Council's injury has killed them early) but will be competitive and worth an occasional look see, and spot play. I know they're not your favorite squad but value is value no matter who it is. Think they'll play well against teams that will allow or force pace, like UMass.  Mid season re-enforcements will only help.

   BOL  tonight and in the season ahead.

Boatwright & Napier are both really short and both will be out there as close to 40 minutes as possible. The team isn't deep enough to keep the best players on the bench and even with them on the floor they still aren't up to par to lay this kind of number. Harris isn't going to post them up, but shooters being taller than defenders is underrated.

I also watched the pc-umass game, unfortunate that the hometown team couldnt pull it out though I still don't know how they were in it. Part of me wants Council to redshirt so PC can have him + Ledo + Dunn on the floor all at once. Doubt that happens and it could really hurt recruiting if they have another awful year
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#15
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:12:43 PM


[Quote]locked in:
Wake Forest +12 (-110) vs. Connecticut...i would play WFU at the current number of 10

 

Can you advise where you got the line at +12 and the approx. time?  I want to bet where you do,

quote
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#16
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:13:46 PM
Tenn is terrible on defense, gotta remember this. Can't guard a friggin lick.
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#17
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:16:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jrivers:


[Quote]locked in:
Wake Forest +12 (-110) vs. Connecticut...i would play WFU at the current number of 10

 

Can you advise where you got the line at +12 and the approx. time?  I want to bet where you do,



betonline had it for 17 minutes yesterday

11/15/12 01:28:02pm +11-10 -11-10
11/15/12 01:11:54pm +12-10 -12-10

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#18
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:23:10 PM
Time to open at Betonline. :)  Thanks Jefff
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GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#19
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:54:27 PM
Counting Tennessee as a loss, 0-1 so far...

Updated leans:
Hawaii +8.5
Auburn +7.5
Oregon St +1
Nova +3.5

On the radar:
Penn St 1
FSU +2
ND 4
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GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#20
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:56:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jrivers:


[Quote]locked in:
Wake Forest +12 (-110) vs. Connecticut...i would play WFU at the current number of 10

 

Can you advise where you got the line at +12 and the approx. time?  I want to bet where you do,


I would suggest using them, they come out with some very soft openers and I have not had an issue getting paid to date
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GWarner27
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#21
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:59:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TurnstoneMoney:

Tenn is terrible on defense, gotta remember this. Can't guard a friggin lick.

I almost want to blame their offense for what happened here, think not being able to score really affected their defense and even then it could have been way worse if OSU made their shots in the first half. They had plenty of them...

If trae golden ever gets injured and has to miss a game I have no clue how they will compete
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