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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Postseason Tournament Totals
riccio14 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
riccio14
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#26
Posted: 3/27/2012 10:36:09 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by EASYGOING:

As a predicted, total has gone up.  U still play at 150/150.5 ?  thanks...

I would, but obviously it has lost some of the initial value from the opening #

Stanford has averaged 70.2 possessions and 78.8 points in regulation in its 5 postseason games this year. This is despite 4 of their opponents ranked #213 or lower with respect to adjusted tempo.

GL

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#27
Posted: 3/27/2012 11:08:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by riccio14:

I would, but obviously it has lost some of the initial value from the opening #

Stanford has averaged 70.2 possessions and 78.8 points in regulation in its 5 postseason games this year. This is despite 4 of their opponents ranked #213 or lower with respect to adjusted tempo.

GL

   Those numbers are an obvious concern for us under backers, but what should concern you guys on the over is that Stanford put up those numbers in the comfort of home, and now go to Madison Square Garden.  Jump shooting team after team's been brought back to earth with the cavernous sight lines,and lighting, at that venue. The earlier starting time may also throw off their scoring, with the coast to coast travel another possible factor against them scoring.  As much as UMass likes to force pace, we've seen they can in fact play either way, and I'm not expecting them to force a track meet, but will take what's given to them.  I could easily be wrong, but I'm willing to pay to find out.  BOL 
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#28
Posted: 3/27/2012 11:53:30 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by 222bad:

   Those numbers are an obvious concern for us under backers, but what should concern you guys on the over is that Stanford put up those numbers in the comfort of home, and now go to Madison Square Garden.  Jump shooting team after team's been brought back to earth with the cavernous sight lines,and lighting, at that venue. The earlier starting time may also throw off their scoring, with the coast to coast travel another possible factor against them scoring.  As much as UMass likes to force pace, we've seen they can in fact play either way, and I'm not expecting them to force a track meet, but will take what's given to them.  I could easily be wrong, but I'm willing to pay to find out.  BOL 

I appreciate your post and always welcome a different viewpoint. But I do need to disagree with some of the points in your post.

1. 2 of the 5 games referenced were not at home, rather they were played on at the Staples Center in LA as part of the PAC12 tournament

2. This is the not the first trip to MSG for Stanford this year, they already played Oklahoma St and Syracuse there back in November. And in those two games, they shot 16-37 (43.2%) from behind the arc....which is actually 5.1% better than they shoot on the year on 3PA. This is quite significant when you consider Stanford is #30 in the nation in 3P FG%.

3. UMass only plays one pace....and that is FAST. The national average of adjusted possessions per game is 66. Do you know how many games the Minutemen have played this year that went below the national average -- only ONE. And that was in their last game vs Drexel that saw 62 possessions.

Best of luck with your card tonight, but I wanted to be able to clarify too many of the generalities that I'm seeing in today's forum that are being applied to this match-up tonight

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#29
Posted: 3/27/2012 11:55:58 AM

And this is not to say that the game can't go under because it certainly can -- especially due to some of the situational factors you mention (travel, start time, etc.). It's just that I am very comfortable with my over ticket in my pocket in this game.

BOL

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#30
Posted: 3/27/2012 12:09:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by riccio14:

And this is not to say that the game can't go under because it certainly can -- especially due to some of the situational factors you mention (travel, start time, etc.). It's just that I am very comfortable with my over ticket in my pocket in this game.

BOL

You do well at this and know your totals. BOL!

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#31
Posted: 3/27/2012 12:21:00 PM
What a surprise you playing the over???????
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#32
Posted: 3/27/2012 12:49:12 PM
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Originally Posted by SammyX:

What a surprise you playing the over???????

Would you prefer I post predominantly "unders" next year and have a 40% winning percentage?

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#33
Posted: 3/27/2012 3:14:12 PM
Nice to see you again!.  Bol
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#34
Posted: 3/27/2012 3:26:26 PM
Just kidding buddy you do a good job of analyzing
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#35
Posted: 3/27/2012 4:40:57 PM
Lets get it ricco-I put this in the day you posted it$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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#36
Posted: 3/27/2012 6:56:02 PM
Looks like its going to close in the 149/149.5 range. 

Good luck to those that made a play



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#37
Posted: 3/27/2012 8:00:07 PM
36-33 HT

Blistering pace with ~40 possessions. Unfortunately both teams shooting under 37%

Adjusted game total is 148

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#38
Posted: 3/27/2012 8:05:37 PM
its gonna be close...GL (even though im on the other side)

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#39
Posted: 3/27/2012 8:18:01 PM
2 points first 3 minutes of the 2h 
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#40
Posted: 3/27/2012 8:21:10 PM
nice over get the dart board out tomorrow
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#41
Posted: 3/27/2012 8:31:10 PM

why do u idiots come in here hating on a play? geez, did anyone force u to play it?

grow up...

 

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#42
Posted: 3/27/2012 8:35:31 PM
the pace is incredible.   maybe 80 shots per team.  but they cant hit the ocean.  seems to happen to unfamiliar teams in the Garden.  not sure if the just take NBA 3s or they dont see as well.

7 of 40 from 3 point land combined....

if these teams shot 40% like they normally would it'd be a good over.

lets root for a 2 OT game :-)
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#43
Posted: 3/27/2012 8:44:05 PM
lots of possession....lots of BAD shots...umass is in the bonus so you still have a shot...hopefully it lands on 149 and we both win.
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#44
Posted: 3/27/2012 9:16:55 PM
I am waiting next season and of course riccios picks
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#45
Posted: 3/27/2012 9:25:59 PM
gl with the next play bud
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#46
Posted: 3/27/2012 9:33:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SammyX:

nice over get the dart board out tomorrow

you are an idiot. do you see his record? i hope you fade him all next year and get killed, losing your $200 bankroll. 
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#47
Posted: 3/27/2012 9:47:09 PM
UMass / Stanford Over 147.5 

Game sees 80+ possessions (fastest paced game for Stanford this season), but unfortunately both teams shoot under 37% for the game and missed a combined 86 shots

YTD: 34-23 (59.6%)

2009-'10: 14-7

2010-'11: 2-3-1


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