|Kansas vs UNC: U144
Posted: 3/25/2012 12:41:05 PM
Again, I honestly like UNC ATS, ML, whatever... but if they win this game today, then I will win my futures bet anyways, so will hold off on the side and ML... Marshall will be a game-time decision, and even if he does play, he will be very limited and I would argue he would obviously not be AS effective as he has been in recent games...
First off, Kansas O/U on the road, or neutral is 2-15 on the year. If you take away the game they lost to Baylor in the conference tournament, Kansas has only allowed 57 ppg away from home, allowing 61+ points in only 1 game away from home since February 4th... Kansas has averaged 67.5 ppg away from home since January 21st (12 games), and has only cracked 70+ points in 4 of those games. In their last 3 games, they have averaged 62.7 ppg... I actually lean Kansas TT U72 (5Dimes).
No doubt UNC will be hindered by the lack of Marshall's playing ability, even if he plays today. Kansas is not like Ohio; Carolina has had problems in the past guarding the 3, but still rank 72nd in 3pt% allowed, at 32%... Kansas, offensively, ranks 152nd in 3pt%, and hit only ONE three pointer against NCST... Kansas defense ranks 2nd in FG%, while Carolina ranks 17th in FG%. It will be interesting to see how the rebounds match-up, but still have to give UNC the edge on that... Other than Marshall possibly not playing, I do not see any reason to back Kansas... and I even still like UNC without Marshall (obvious bias, but still...)... I see the final score being UNC 68, Kansas 63.