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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: My personal POY is tonight, and I have been waiting for this for a while now...
EX4life send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 3/3/2012 6:49:26 PM
I do not recall ever posting a comment on Covers labeling a certain play of mine being a "POY,"or "POM," but that is going to change tonight... As I said in my regular Saturday Thread, I was planning on making my POY play on the UNC/Duke game... I have already seen mannnnnny threads stating that their play on the game is their POY, and that there's no way UNC can lose, or that there is no way Duke can lose at home, and there's nothing wrong with any of those threads... I am just going to give my opinion on why I am choosing this particular play as "POY" worthy, at least to me 

BUT FIRST, I will be completely honest and tell you that I am obviously sommmmewhat biased, as I have been a Carolina fan my whole life, and am an absolutely huge Tarheel Basketball Fan... so, with that being said, please do not pass over what I am saying JUST because I am a Tarheel fan... Just because I am a fan doesn't mean I bet on them everytime. In fact, I rarely made a bet for/against UNC this year (made a couple 1H spread bets), but if I was gonna make a play on one of their games, I would generally try to stick to a total... What I am trying to say here, is that if I truly did not think my play was the best play, then I would simply just pass on it... Just wanted to set the record straight before I go into the game 

Pick: UNC -2 (20u) POY

UNC @ Duke:
The biggest rivalry in college basketball has plenty riding on it in tonight's match-up.  The winner of tonight's game will take home the ACC regular season championship and will earn a #1 seed for the upcoming ACC tournament. Both teams are also in the hunt for a #1 NCAA tournament seed. Unfortunately for Duke, IMHO of course, tonight's match-up will be a little more personal. Despite everything that's on the line tonight, the Tarheels are more ready than they'll ever be for the rematch. The Tarheel player's are still stinging from that amazing shot by Rivers (It was definitely beautiful, freakin hated it though lol), and Harrison Barnes recently commented and said the Tar Heels have paid close attention to make sure that doesn NOT happen again.

It's easier said than done, of course, but I would strongly urge you to agree on that point... so let's take a look at the match-up in depth.

I am going to split up my write-up into different "sections,"hopefully keeping it all organized. The first section I will cover are the trends, both ATS and O/U, etc...
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#2
Posted: 3/3/2012 6:51:00 PM
(1) Trends:

UNC:
-5-1 ATS L6 Overall (Or since the loss to Duke).
-9-4 ATS L13 vs a team with a win % > than .600
-O/U: 10-22 L32 Road Games vs a team with a Home win % > than .600
-O/U: 11-23 L34 Road Games.
-O/U: 17-35 L52 vs ACC.

Duke:
-2-6 ATS L8 Home Games vs a team with a Road win % > than .600
-1-7 ATS L8 Home Games.
-O/U: 5-2 L7 Home Games.

H2H:
-UNC is 5-1 ATS L6 @ Duke (But 2-5 ATS L7 vs Duke overall).
-Road team is 8-2 ATS L10 meetings.
-O/U: 1-6 L7 meetings (1-3 L4 @ Duke).

(2) National Rankings:

(Offense)                           UNC:                                 Duke:
PPG                                  2nd (82.1)                           11th (79.0)
FG%                                   71st (45.9%)                     54th (46.5%)
3Pt%                                  167th (34.4%)                  22nd (39.0%)
Reb                                     1st    (45.8)                         55th (37.1)

(Defense)                          UNC:                                  Duke:
PPG                                  148th (66.1)                      220th (68.4)
FG%                                  12th (38.6%)                    188th (43.3%)
3Pt%                                 57th (31.4%)                     56th (31.3%)
Reb                                   206th (31.4)                      200th (31.3)


(3) Notes:

-I was reading an article by Seth Davis the other day, and he was talking about this game, and about how neither team has lost since they last played each other, and both have gotten better. He actually went on to predict Duke winning this one, but I want to point out some things here... Yes, both teams have gone 6-0 since their first match-up, but let's dig into these 6 games that each team has played.


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#3
Posted: 3/3/2012 6:51:23 PM
-Duke: 6-0 SU since their win @ UNC... but 2 of those wins have been due to 2H rallies AT HOME vs NCST and VT.
-Have lost 2 games at home this year for the first time since 2006/07... That year, guess who Duke's 3rd home loss was to  Yep, Duke lost their 3rd home game to UNC 73-79.
-Have outscored their opponents 60-29 in the last 4 minutes of regulation and/or OT in 3-Possession Games (9 points or fewer):
1) @ UNC: Trailing 68-79, won 85-84.
2) vs NCST: Trailing 66-69, won 78-73.
3) @ FLST: Led 61-58, won 74-66.
4) vs VT: Trailing 52-53, won 70-65
-Duke, if you recall, was trailing NCST by 20 before they ended up rallying for the win... And also blew a 23 point lead to WF last week, only to win by 8 points... Mark my words, that will NOT happen tonight if this continues. The Tarheels were on the verge of a very solid victory in the first game, but just became out of their element, playing to Duke's strategy, and the Heels were just overcome in the end. I mean, my hat's off to Duke in that game. They never gave up, and they just proved to everyone that you are never out of a game until the buzzer sounds. But as I stated at the beginning, the Tarheels have learned from that, and it has shown since that game.

-UNC: Have also gone 6-0 since the loss to Duke, but in fairly easy fashion. Aside from their 3 point win @ Virginia (which isn't absolutely horrible either, considering the talent Virginia has, on top of the fact that Duke only beat Virginia by 3 at Cameron Indoor earlier this season), the Heels have won by 9 points or more in the other 5 games (scoring 78.2ppg, allowing only 61.2ppg)
-Not to mention that the last 6 games UNC has played (vs Vir, @ Mia, vs Clem, @ NCST, @ Vir, and vs MD) vs the 6 teams Duke has played (vs MD, vs NCST, @ BC, @ FSU, vs VT, @ WF); it can be agreed on that the way UNC has handled their 6 teams has been better than the way Duke has handled their 6 teams.

(4) Interesting Facts:

-Looking back as far as I could on Covers, since the 97/98 season, Duke has only been an underdog at home 3 times! And all 3 times have been to UNC (Carolina covering the last 2).


(4) Final Thoughts:

-This is going to be a great game, I can feel it. I have been waiting for this game since the loss a few weeks back. But what is interesting about this game tonight, is that even though UNC lost @ home to Duke, they are now favorites @ Cameron Indoor. Reminds me of when FSU beat Duke @ Duke, then when Duke traveled to FSU, they were the favorites, and covered.

The way the Tarheel players have responded since the lost has been very encouraging. In my opinion, there is no doubt in my mind that UNC is the better team, whether playing @ Chapel Hill or Cameron Indoor. They have the talent, experience, and leadership to take care of Duke tonight. I am very confident that Carolina will win and cover the spread. I had originally wanted to also take UNC 1H; but I could possibly see Duke surging out in the 1H... sort like how it started @ Chapel Hill. But I am very confident that, even if UNC is down at HT, that they will comeback in the 2H to cover. 

I hope this has helped a little bit... I did a tonnn of research the studying for this game, and I sure hope it pays off.

If I win this bet, then obviously I will continue to post from here on out... but if this play loses, I will be done with NCAAB for the season... if it happens to lose, I appreciate all of you guys in this forum for being cool as garbage, and commenting in my threads and stuff... most of you are class acts, and I wish nothing but the best for you... But if this play hits, see ya tomorrow 
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#4
Posted: 3/3/2012 6:54:17 PM
You had me at "I do not"
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#5
Posted: 3/3/2012 6:57:21 PM
GL EX...


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triplee2385
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#6
Posted: 3/3/2012 7:03:02 PM
TAAR  


























HEEEEELSSS!
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wmi799
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#7
Posted: 3/3/2012 7:15:13 PM

All trends, etc go out the window for me in this game. No play!

BOL though

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#8
Posted: 3/3/2012 8:01:50 PM
I had originally wanted to also take UNC 1H; but I could possibly see Duke surging out in the 1H... sort like how it started @ Chapel Hill. But I am very confident that, even if UNC is down at HT, that they will comeback in the 2H to cover.




Damn, shoulda went with my gut 
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#9
Posted: 3/3/2012 8:33:44 PM
What sucks the most is that I do not have cable here at the house, so I can't even watch the game
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#10
Posted: 3/3/2012 9:04:59 PM
Pick: UNC -2 (20u) POY


My very first POY, and on my boys from Chapel Hill baby... knew they would come through for me..... Had been countin down the days until they played, just waitin to see if the line was right and everything lined up just the way I was hoping to make UNC my POY, and it all worked out!!! In fact, I was more confident in the play, after seeing UNC favored, as opposed to an underdog as I had originally thought would be the casee....


BOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM.... Hoped I helped somebody... have a great rest of yalls weekend.... TIME TO PARTYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY 
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#11
Posted: 3/3/2012 9:07:50 PM
DNA results are in: UNC is Dukes daddy.
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#12
Posted: 3/3/2012 9:10:06 PM
Nice work my man.

I'm just not sure if they have the guard play to make it deep in the tourney though. Shame those other two got injured cuz they were looking at a championship.
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#13
Posted: 3/3/2012 9:23:51 PM
That's a good point slikstiks  I still think they definitely have a shot at winning it all.... would obviously have been muchhhh better to have the line-up at full strength, but I still think they are athletic and talented enough to make a push deep into the tournament.... I hope so at least 
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#14
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:17:21 AM
Final Thoughts:

Well, if I knew it was that easy to win a POY play, then I would have to start being like some people that post on here, and give out several "POY" plays 

But seriously, what an incredible and dominant performance by the Tar Heels. I knew that they would play well, and I knew they would want to come out strong and show everybody that what happened last game was a fluke; but the way they actually showed it... unbelievable!!!

Part of what has impressed me this year about this young Duke team, is that they are pretty versatile when it comes to carrying the team on any particular night. The one problem with that, is that the guys that are put into position to carry the team in a game, for the most part, are all guards... they can shoot, but that's it. JJ Reddick had always been a great shooter, there's no denying that. But what put him over the top by the end of his career was his ability to drive and force the defense to not solely rely on his jump shot. But even Coach K after the game admitted that his team bases a lot of their offense on 3-point shooting. So when you do that, if the shots aren't falling one game, uh oh. And that was the case last night.

Game Notes:

Duke: Made their first 2 FG, then did not make another shot again until the 11:19 mark in the 1H.
-Plumlee brothers went 14-22 from the field for 33 points.
-Rest of the team went 12-41 from the field for 37 points.
-Missed 15 consecutive shots (0-7 on their first 7, 3-pt attempts).
-Had two 7 minutes FG droughts in the 1H.
-12-21 FT (57.1%)
-6-21 3-Pt (28.6%).

UNC: Out rebounded Duke 42-22.
-Shot 54.5% from the floor.
-12-15 FT (80%).
-Marshall: Was the second time in 2 weeks that he has recorded at least 20 points and 10 assists in a game. He is the first Tar Heel in the last decade to accomplish that in one season. On top of that, no Tar Heel has done that to Duke in the last 15 years.

-As I stated at the beginning of my write-up on the game, Harrison Barnes and the rest of the Tar Heel players were prepared and determined to make sure that what happened the first go around never happened again. They were focused. Not to mention the fact that at the game last night, they showed the highlights of the last-second win over UNC on the video scoreboard there at Cameron Indoor, and apparently Marshall didn't like that, and so he gathered the rest of his UNC teammates around, and told them that he thought it was disrespectful, and that they needed to go out and play well. I am honestly not sure why Duke did that... That had to have known that they didn't need to give UNC any more motivation than they already had. Then to disrespect one of the best teams in the nation like that, sorta shows that Duke got exactly what they deserved... a good ol'fashioned behind woopin.

I think last night was the culmination of the definition of the "Perfect Storm." You have Marshall feeling disrespected, so he goes out and drops 20 and hands out 10, accomplishing something no Tar Heel has done to Duke in 15 years...You have Tyler Zeller, who had been waiting since the last game to take out his revenge, hit 9 of his 11 shots before fouling out, posting a double double... You have one of the best players in college basketball in Harrison Barnes, not to mention an improving individual in Reggie Bullock, providing 12 points and 6 rebounds.

In last night's game, 3 UNC players recorded double doubles (Marshall 20 pts, 10 ast; Zeller 19 pts, 10 rebs; and Henson 13 pts, 10 rebs)... the first time they've done that since 2003.

Last night's game can be summed up by recapping the following. Duke made a run through the middle of the second half, cutting the deficit to 11 points, and their last chance at a run came when Thorton stole the ball with 2:09 left in the game. Thorton proceeds to miss the UNCONTESTED layup and UNC counters with a 3-pointer from Barnes, which essentially put the game to rest at that point.

Another impressive stat about the game, is that UNC built a 48-24 HT lead... the largest HT deficit Duke has had ANYWHERE, to ANYBODY, since 1990.

As I said in my write-up, Duke has had the tendency lately to grow a deficit, whether at home or on the road, but eventually come back to win the game. But if they were to do that against UNC in this game, I did not see it working out so conveniently for them. UNC is just too good of a team to try and come back on, even if you are playing at home. 

Here is a quote from Roy Williams after the game... "My team's had some bounce-back to them all year long. We go down to FSU and lose by 3 million and everybody's jumping off the bandwagon... but our team kept playing. We lose to Duke and everybody's got a great opinion of how stupid we are... and my team kept playing."

Again, I am biased towards UNC, but Roy Williams is right about what he said. It is so easy to jump off of a team's "bandwagon" after a bad performance. But that's the reality of sports... no team is going to play to their best potential every single game, especially playing the amount of games they do... I mean, it'd be nice for that to happen. Hell, I would love it if UNC went 35-0; but reality tells me that most likely will not happen. But it's how the team responds after a hiccup, that will determine the outcome of that teams overall season. While UNC has plenty to work on and prepare for and get better at before the ACC and NCAA Tournaments, I strongly believe that they are one of the best, if not the best, team in the nation. They have the experience, poise, talent, and composure that has the potential to take them all the way. I am encouraged by the improvement and contribution from Bullock, and McAdoo and Hairston have shown signs of improvement as well. 

I really hope that yall took UNC, and I also hope that my write-up helped some people out. I am going to use this thread from now until the end of the season for any comments, opinions, or plays/write-ups I have for any of the UNC games in the future. It was just a great game all around, GO HEELS 
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#15
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:27:17 AM
nice win sir
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#16
Posted: 3/5/2012 9:42:05 AM
Nice hit maybe now you can get some sort of cable tv.
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#17
Posted: 3/5/2012 10:17:15 PM
CoverLane  Thank you... I said it in some other thread, but I was expecting UNC to be around +2 or mayyyybe even +3; but I was actually even more confident in the play when I saw them favored... just glad I didn't have to sweat it out too much during the game... one of my buddies, an avvvvvid Duke fan, texted me at HT saying he was turning the game off and they had no shot at comin back and blah blah... I was like, bro, ive seen way too many games where the losing team comes back from being down DD, and Duke did it last time @ Chapel Hill, so I was somewhat nervous mid-way through the 2H, but it all worked out 


bogey533  thanks for the comment... hahaha I would love to be able to get some sort of cable... sucks having just regular channels... only sports that ever come on are on the weekends, but during MLB season, its only like 1 game on FOX on Saturday... I like that they show the women's beach volleyball games though hahaha... With all of my school and truck loans, on top of gas prices and everything else, it's hard comin up with extra cash to do stuff with... Thanks again for the comment 
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