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Author: [Las Vegas] Topic: Minimum needed to live the dream
ShadowWarrior send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#376
Posted: 6/27/2013 2:35:02 PM
Where is NYSlim or Hardball Harry or Beergut?  Living the dream or has it become a nightmare.  Lots of islanders have moved to LV .  I have three cousins there, former neighbor, numerous classmates.   Californians especially move there to get away from state taxes on their pensions and their pensions are generous, much better than here.
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dtorres72 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
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#377
Posted: 6/28/2013 1:13:44 PM
Hello all,

I am back last week was up and down, but i still held my own and up a good amount of change!  Even blew quite a bit lets just say on a good night at Cheetah's..I have read many of these posts and it seems to me everyone has issues with taking a big money line and you are better off to go for the long shots with little risk and big rewards.  I agree, but how often does that happen very rare...  Yes you risk more but have a lot better chance of winning most of the time.  So how ever you bet, that is up to you but nothing wrong either way.  We are all out to try and win, bottom line.  Some of us play it safer then others, which is nothing wrong with that.  Some of us like to live on the edge a bit more, once again nothing wrong with that.

Now with all that being said, I am taking the Yankees tonight at +110, to win $4000.  Take it to the bank..
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mafioso send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bellagio |
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#378
Posted: 6/28/2013 5:00:54 PM
The way you survive Baseball season as a bettor is never to lay more than -125 on any team or total.
Take Dogs of +135 to Favorites of -125 
No other way to survive it, Yes, You may hit 5 or 6 or 7 in a row laying -180
but you lose 3 games and you gave it all back.

And if you are in Vegas, There is nothing that will give you more of an advantage than live betting.

Vegas Gourmet 
MY EYES HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT
You were right all along
there is nothing better
Iv seen my bankroll go from 3129 dollars
to 10196 dollars in 32 days 
AMAZING how Cantor stays in business
Last night when the Dodgers were down a Run
I took them for 200 to win 490
When they came back and took a two run lead I took Philly for 60 dollars to win 380
Putting myself in a no lose situation.
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ShadowWarrior send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#379
Posted: 6/29/2013 8:47:04 PM
Nice going mafioso!  Have you started your business venture yet?  You have a very good plan in place and hope you success.
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cybergrindin send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Las Vegas Hotel and Casino |
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#380
Posted: 6/30/2013 5:17:35 PM
I have been doin it for 15 years. Live in LV and san diego.  Its not mathematical as u think.. just do it.. itll fall in place
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#381
Posted: 7/1/2013 5:14:35 PM
How would you rank the softest poker rooms & at what times?
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#382
Posted: 7/3/2013 5:08:11 PM
if you're renting an apartment I wouldn't call that living the dream haha...
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#383
Posted: 7/3/2013 10:05:41 PM
NO, not if your dream is to be a homowner
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#384
Posted: 7/5/2013 1:29:36 AM

I just want to tell my story of living the dream. I I went out to vegas with a 35k bankroll and had 4 months of rent (2,000/month) paid for in advance.  I made about 40k in one month betting baseball.  By the fourth month, I was bust.  I did live an extravagant lifestyle and have a lot of overhead (10k/month), but had poor money management.  I travelled every two weeks and ate/lived well above my means.  My biggest downfall was casinos and alcohol.  I have given up alcohol and have the discipline to never playing a casino game again.  In addition, I have read over 20  books related to risk and gambling.  Last year in baseball, I was 72% ats.  My numbers this year in baseball are even better.   The biggest problems were my arrogance and poor money management. I would play 10-20k on a single game and win.    Some of my wins were attributed to pure randomness and I didn't even realize it.    I feel I can do this, but my goal is to make millions sports investing.  I am going to try again, but need 50k to get started.  I will keep the forum updated on my progress,

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#385
Posted: 7/5/2013 3:12:51 PM
I would say don't go, I have met people evicted from their homes or homeless chasing bets, the only people I know who are successful at sportsbetting that live in vegas are people who have a steady job. The key to beating the books is to turn the odds against them and use their own money against them. If you can't turn 100 bucks into 1000 within a week on a consistent basis, then you not ready to make that jump. It's easy to dream sitting on your coach but being their with so many distractions will have you broke in no time
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#386
Posted: 7/5/2013 3:41:16 PM

RE: JCarthone.  

 

I am able to turn profits week in and week out and have been sports gambling for 10 years.  I did live in lv right on the strip for 4 months or so last year and over the last ten years used to travel frequently to Nevada with the short flight from CA.  Over the last 6 months, I have been able to eliminate alcohol consumption, establish discipline and adhere to a strict plan.  I agree there are a lot of distractions in lv.  One experiences many more distractions living there then just visiting for 3-4 days.  From my personal experience over the last ten years on sports gambling, one needs to put in 70-80 hours of time into sports analysis and research to become successful.  This involves very advanced mathematics including predictive modeling.  How can one work a steady job and allocate 70 hours a week in sportsbetting?  The true sharps that make over 500k / year solely focus on this.  They have other investments ie real estate and may make more form those other ventures in time.    What you are referring to turning 100-1000 week in and week out is absurd.  The goal of a serious sports investor is to win 25-30% ROI over the course of a season or year.  The figures you are describing are 1000% every week.  No one in the world is able to establish that return every week.  If so, one would be able to turn 1000 into ten million over the course of one football season.  You clearly are an amateur who has no idea of the high stakes sports betting I am referring to.  My minimum wager was 2k and went up to 20k depending on the variables.  It's not even worth it to me to walk through the parasitic casino to get to the sportsbook for any less than 2 dimes.   

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#387
Posted: 7/5/2013 3:59:16 PM
I was referring to lower level gamblers, but for bigger players you have to get ahead of the count,gambling/investing is more psychological than technical, I bet you if feels better to lose than to win. It's hard to be creative and conservative at the same time, it's a conflict of interest. Thats the edge most casinos have over players, that and more money. Because people win we get cocky we forget the things that made us successful and over extend, and there goes our bankroll.
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#388
Posted: 7/5/2013 6:42:50 PM

you said "it feels better to lose than win"

Again, this is more evidence of you being an amateur and what Vegas attracts with near misses, comps and the ludic fallacy that exists inside the walls of casinos.  I am not trying to be right like a bettor or seeking entertainment as gamblers do.  My one and only goal in sports investing is to make money.  That is it.  I don't care about home town favorites or being right.  I look for value and situations with a distinct edge to create solid investing opportunities. 

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#389
Posted: 7/6/2013 12:51:16 AM
baseballwinner----I've been on a slump the last 2 days betting bases. Who do you like tomorrow? 
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ShadowWarrior send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#390
Posted: 7/6/2013 3:46:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by baseballwinner:

you said "it feels better to lose than win"

Again, this is more evidence of you being an amateur and what Vegas attracts with near misses, comps and the ludic fallacy that exists inside the walls of casinos.  I am not trying to be right like a bettor or seeking entertainment as gamblers do.  My one and only goal in sports investing is to make money.  That is it.  I don't care about home town favorites or being right.  I look for value and situations with a distinct edge to create solid investing opportunities. 

.    Can you give an example of a value and distinct advantage situation in any scenario like NBA, CBB, NFL, CFB, or MLB.  If you do, they must be few and far between.   I also look at tennis, MMA and Olympics last summer was good.   I do not do any NHL or soccer.  Wagering has so many variables like injuries or weather, etc.  Had Broncos db been in a better position maybe Broncs go to SB!  Maybe had Spurs hit their free throws late in game six,  they be the NBA champs!  Maybe TX wins the WS if they close out Cards in their last at bat with one strike to win.  Your value and advantage can be all cancelled out by good or bad luck.
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#391
Posted: 7/6/2013 11:38:01 PM
baseballwinner - you can put 70 hours a week or up to 100 hours a week in research and analysis there will always be randomness and things out of your control that will screw you. i.e. injury, unexpected fumble, meaningless 3 pt shot at buzzer, etc.  my only point is that  realistically one should have an alternate job with steady cash flow compared to dedicating 100% of his time to sports betting/investing
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#392
Posted: 7/11/2013 4:11:48 AM
I'm sorry but I don't believe anyone hits more than 70% for an entire year in any sport. I used to own/operate a restaurant and made damn good money. I was betting heavily. I turned a $300 deposit into almost $37k, and lost it all in two days. I worked my azz off to get it that high. I made a decent living betting sports before I had the restaurant. But I was always around 55-63% depending on what sport. You have to know your self, and what you can handle. If you know you are good at sports betting, but the casinos are your down fall then make sure to eliminate that option. You can either sports bet online, and live some where without a casino, or you can give yourself self-exclusions to all casinos besides sportsbooks. For the people who say you cannot do it for a living, that is false. I know first hand for many years. The problem most people have is money management. Just because you have a great week and make 10k, does not mean you should go spend $4k at best buy. Money management consists of a lot more than control your bet size. It has more to do with how you manage your money personally than anything else. Once we spend $1k on something we really don't need, we try to make it up quickly, by winning the money back. So that we will not feel the money gone. Big mistake! Another thing, for the person that said you cannot make a living hitting 55% percent...I totally disagree. If you place 200 wagers a month, and hit 55%, this would be the breakdown. For a $300 bettor, you would profit $3300 a month. A $500 bettor would profit $5500, and so on. If you can increase that just two percentage points, to 57%, your $300 gambler now profits $5820. The $500 bettor would then be making $9700. People in this country are greedy, but you should be able to make it on $3300 a month. Anything more, and your saving fast. More than 50% of Americans make less than 34k a year. It is definitely possible, and if it's your dream...go for it!
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#393
Posted: 7/11/2013 5:19:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gatorsneil75:

I'm sorry but I don't believe anyone hits more than 70% for an entire year in any sport.

this isnt true...i hit well over 70% in ncaa football last year but obviously still came out in the red becasue of poor $ management and a little thing on sunday called the NFL

patience, choosing your spots, and waiting for the right opportunities is what it takes.  Also the ability to keep your ego in check, not increase your wager size when you are hot, and other $ management principles will help you be a successful sports gambler.  Doing it full-time 100% of the time w/o a steady income stream is not something i believe is realistic or desirable but BOL to those who try and dont end up bust.
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#394
Posted: 7/15/2013 3:26:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by T-One:

trim, how much do you bet? if 2-6 bets a week, your bet size must be different. 

I started with a 200K bankroll; my action is typically 2.5% of my bankroll, which is kept in margin account, just in case I have to borrow of my stocks/bonds.

I have had years where I have lost 100K...I just dealt with with.

have a good one!
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ShadowWarrior send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#395
Posted: 7/16/2013 2:06:40 PM
Not too many can have a 200 k bankroll.  You are probably the only one I know.  I hope you can give some picks!
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#396
Posted: 7/16/2013 6:12:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

Not too many can have a 200 k bankroll.  You are probably the only one I know.  I hope you can give some picks!

That bankroll sure didn't come from 'cappin, Shadow!...In the late 80's (I remember in decades, now, rather than dates!) I was reading the financial back page of the San Diego Union. Laurence Tisch (President of CBS) had bought 20K shares of Bank of Boston at 1 dollar. Why? With Larry's wealth he should be buying Coke or P&G. I didn't wait around: I had hustled around 10K from savings/working the Caliente Sports Book (Tijuana); I dumped the Bank of Boston load (all of it) into a margin account at 2 bucks.

Larry didn't disappoint: he ended up buying about 4.4 million shares and when it was all over the stock went from 1 to 44...I cashed out. You can imagine the doubling power of a margin account. It was a beautiful thing.

I relate this story because there are many opportunities right at the book. For instance, many offshore books have political betting: Richard Murdoch was a huge favorite to crush Joe Donnelly for the Indiana US Senate race.  I was reading the Huffington Post the very morning Murdoch said, "rape was something God intended." Again, I didn't wait around: I took Donnelly at +140 and Obama +220 to win Florida in a two-teamer...I made a friggin' killing on that one. I also two-teamed Obama to win New Hampshire with the Saints/Cowboys over...another monster.

It's important that, at least occasionally, you look over cricket, politics, rugby...you name it, because there will be opportunities.

Also, don't forget to read Rip-Off Report for stock picks...once you see a corporation with tons of complaints, be ready to buy some puts...you may do well.

It's the All-Star Break. The only time of year when there is zero action in anything, so I have so time to fool around. Have a great day, Shadow (I live in Honolulu, corner of Wilder/Piikoi, for five years.)
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#397
Posted: 7/17/2013 2:26:33 PM
Thanks trim88, I live in Kaneohe, surf Rockpiles whenever.  This summer has been a bomb!
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#398
Posted: 7/18/2013 12:30:56 AM
If you think playing poker for a living is living the dream, you're kidding yourself bud. It's anything but. It's A daily grind and very very few are ever actual make a living doing it. 
There is an easier way believe me . 
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#399
Posted: 7/18/2013 1:34:36 AM
amazing thread....great read guys....any updates slim??
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#400
Posted: 7/18/2013 1:40:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

Thanks trim88, I live in Kaneohe, surf Rockpiles whenever.  This summer has been a bomb!

Gosh, I tried...bit off more than I could chew: gave Haleiwa a shot, it was so steep I almost got killed. I should've had fun learning at Ala Moana, but of course, thought I was special: wrong answer. Surfing takes time, dedication and an athleticism I could never have. I failed miserably. Rockpiles demands the best of the best...well done, my friend...well done.
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