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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Totals - Monday 3-12-12
MaxMillion
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#51
Posted: 3/12/2012 5:59:22 PM

Which of these stats would you look at specifically? Using Charlotte as an example, they are last in Offensive Efficiency and 2nd to last in Defensive Efficiency. New Orleans, on the other hand, is 27th in OE while ranked 20th in DE. What do the numbers (New Orleans OE = 96.8, DE = 102.8) mean relative to the projected total for the game?

And no I'm not working for the books - I'm not sure that they're too concerned that I just upped my unit size from $10 to $20 a couple of weeks ago :)


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#52
Posted: 3/12/2012 6:05:25 PM
Hey Lawson I am also on the over 186.5  in the clipp game tonight, I've noticed the line has moved down to 186 recently along with change in juice Under now 110 and the Over is 109, what do you think of this kinda movement? 
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#53
Posted: 3/12/2012 6:05:59 PM
ok so your 2 picks are directionally same irrespective of the change, although more supported by new numbers.

And, Minn + Spurs are also directionally same from old to new numbers except the new numbers make those statistically indifferent.

Thanks for posting the old numbers.
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#54
Posted: 3/12/2012 6:06:51 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SmashSports999:

Hey Lawson I am also on the over 186.5  in the clipp game tonight, I've noticed the line has moved down to 186 recently along with change in juice Under now 110 and the Over is 109, what do you think of this kinda movement? 

I like to watch line movement, but I've had pretty good luck with games that move in favor of my lean once I've bet on them. In this example, I've taken the over and the line goes down further after I place my bet. It's interesting to watch and try to learn from, but it doesn't change the way I bet my games or my confidence in them.

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#55
Posted: 3/12/2012 6:07:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JBecks12:

ok so your 2 picks are directionally same irrespective of the change, although more supported by new numbers.

And, Minn + Spurs are also directionally same from old to new numbers except the new numbers make those statistically indifferent.

Thanks for posting the old numbers.

From what I've been able to tell, it doesn't change the direction of the play (from over to under), but it does change the strength, as you mentioned. What may normally be a no-play may be a small to medium play based on the new numbers, and vise versa.

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MaxMillion
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#56
Posted: 3/12/2012 6:08:55 PM
Trying to Figure How to Copy and Paste statements from previous posts.  The Stat I look at particularly is PACE. Personally That is really the only stat I look at that factor in my decision on o/u.

  • PACE: Pace Factor - the number of possessions a team uses per game.

Both Charlotte And New Orleans are ranked in the bottom half 30th and 27th.


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#57
Posted: 3/12/2012 6:11:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MaxMillion:

Trying to Figure How to Copy and Paste statements from previous posts.  The Stat I look at particularly is PACE. Personally That is really the only stat I look at that factor in my decision on o/u.

  • PACE: Pace Factor - the number of possessions a team uses per game.

Both Charlotte And New Orleans are ranked in the bottom half 30th and 27th.


How would you intrerpret this data? If they both have low possession numbers, do you see it as having two teams that will wind the shot clock down or do you simply compare the fact that they rank near one another and should have an equal number of opportunities? Or both?

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MaxMillion
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#58
Posted: 3/12/2012 6:13:48 PM
You only bet $10-$20?
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MaxMillion
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#59
Posted: 3/12/2012 6:16:27 PM
You Can look at like That or the opposite. The More possessions the team has, the more shots the team is going to put up trending more towards the over.
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#60
Posted: 3/12/2012 6:16:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MaxMillion:

You only bet $10-$20?

Per unit, yes. 1 Unit plays = $20 ($22), 4 Unit plays = $80 ($88).

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howzuck
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#61
Posted: 3/12/2012 10:25:54 PM
Wow, Lawson, I'm a small time better like you, but I strongly suspect people are putting hundreds of dollars on your picks, hope you are up to the task...
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#62
Posted: 3/12/2012 10:39:03 PM
lawson your leans and picks seem to be off today? but i think the clippers drop in total, means it should go over
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#63
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:28:41 AM
Looks BOS/LAC are Under as well...58-54 3:08 in the 3rd quarter...
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#64
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:43:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by howzuck:

Wow, Lawson, I'm a small time better like you, but I strongly suspect people are putting hundreds of dollars on your picks, hope you are up to the task...


How much people bet on my plays is of no concern to me. To say that because I've had a cold week or so and that I'm "fade material" or something like that is foolish. Had these same people been following me since the beginning and put $100 on each play, they'd be up nearly $3,000 before tonight. It's a marathon not a sprint and if people want to jump on for miles 13 and 14 then jump off, good luck to them; I plan on setting this thing straight.
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#65
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:48:58 AM
monkey & cougs - there are some things you just can't plan on. For example, the CHA/NO game - if you want to say that the UNDER was "obvious," then go ahead, hindsight is 20/20. Both of these games had/will have chances to go to OT and sometimes, that's what you need to hit an over bet. We will see...
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#66
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:51:31 AM
Rlawson, Im glad I didnt follow you tonight or else. I would have lost my dog for betting on it. I already lost my girlfriend, my car and my house for last time I followed you.
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#67
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:53:24 AM
rlawson, I placed 1 unit = 1000 dollars for every games.
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#68
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:54:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoDen2012:

Rlawson, Im glad I didnt follow you tonight or else. I would have lost my dog for betting on it. I already lost my girlfriend, my car and my house for last time I followed you.


Hahahaha, yeah, no kidding. You better keep man's best friend around until I get this ship sailing back on track.
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#69
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:55:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoDen2012:

rlawson, I placed 1 unit = 1000 dollars for every games.


Man, I work too hard for my money to put that much on something I have no control over. You've got a bigger set than I do, my friend.
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#70
Posted: 3/13/2012 1:06:10 AM
rlawson, I guess my bankroll is way too high for your blood..........! j/k,
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#71
Posted: 3/13/2012 1:14:46 AM
Am feeling for you.  My numbers were similar to yours on most games tonight, and my two plays were the same as yours as my variances dictated that.  Also, up until a couple of days ago my numbers were ok but now seem way out of whack......same as what you are referring to.  Additionally, some of the lines are getting very sharp.....but then how do you figure Char / New Orleans tanking like that.....other than they are poor teams.

I had some decent posted success over in college baskets with o/u, but a similar thing happened with the numbers from out of nowhere --- and they eventually smoothed out on their own.  Wish I had an answer for you.  I'm now leaning away from Hollinger with less emphasis on offense and defensive eff.   There's a lot of  people on your side and we all appreciate your work.  Hang tough.
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