Official (?) RPI 2013 system

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Official (?) RPI 2013 system
rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#601
Posted: 8/23/2013 11:39:00 AM
TEX and CIN today (8/23/13). And I'm still playing this system through September just like I did last year. Teams that are fighting for wild card are not laying down in September while the bad teams are retooling for next year. The juice does seem to be higher this year though. I believe the books are trying to tune the money lines to counteract the different baseball systems that they know work. I'm also wondering if the high juice series may make the underdog a play for one win.
Riceboi PM Riceboi
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quote#602
Posted: 8/23/2013 6:18:50 PM
Very suspicious the system had this bad of a year. Vegas is on to us lol
Posted using a mobile device.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#603
Posted: 8/24/2013 3:26:32 AM

Friday results: Texas wins on the A game. Cincy loses on A game, B game Saturday.

Record: 100-7

A: 65-43

B: 24-18

C: 11-7

rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#604
Posted: 8/24/2013 11:07:40 AM
Vegas has nothing to do with the system having a poor year. But Vegas is making it more expensive to lose a 3 game chase. Also with these higher money lines, laying the plays is more difficult because Vegas has wagering limits on games. You have to go to multiple locations to make max plays.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#605
Posted: 8/24/2013 1:06:50 PM
Most places won't blink if you bet to win a $1000 on a team. If younare betting more than that, then congrats!
fulkgl PM fulkgl
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quote#606
Posted: 8/24/2013 2:49:32 PM
Aug13 WL record 19-24 = 44%. Shockingly bad. I have figured out the algorithm used to compute the MLB RPI. So now I just need to create a database of a former year's games and I hope I'd be able to predict the games for that year. A good off-season exercise to see if the RPI system done for, or was 2013 just an abnormally bad year.
fulkgl PM fulkgl
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quote#607
Posted: 8/24/2013 3:27:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rp-rt:

Vegas has nothing to do with the system having a poor year. But Vegas is making it more expensive to lose a 3 game chase. Also with these higher money lines, laying the plays is more difficult because Vegas has wagering limits on games. You have to go to multiple locations to make max plays.

average ML with this system over the past 3 years: 
  May-134
  Jun-144
  Jul-163
  Aug-177

As the season progresses favorites get more expensive.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#608
Posted: 8/24/2013 3:32:48 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by fulkgl:

Aug13 WL record 19-24 = 44%. Shockingly bad. I have figured out the algorithm used to compute the MLB RPI. So now I just need to create a database of a former year's games and I hope I'd be able to predict the games for that year. A good off-season exercise to see if the RPI system done for, or was 2013 just an abnormally bad year.

You cracked the code for the secret ESPN RPI numbers? Well done.

rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#609
Posted: 8/24/2013 8:31:22 PM

fulkgl,

so favorites get more expensive as the season progresses but our RPI differential actually goes down after the all-star game.

rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#610
Posted: 8/24/2013 8:56:48 PM

Danrules24,

To win a $1000

Game-1, -195, $1950 to win $1000, if "A" game loses then

Game-2, -200, $5900 to win $2950, if "B" game loses then

Game-3, -170, $15045 to win $8850.

I believe the max MLB bet in Vegas is $5000, That means you would have to spread your "C" game bet over 4 separate bets to make a $1000 profit on the series. Does this seem correct?

NoSoLucky PM NoSoLucky
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quote#611
Posted: 8/24/2013 10:59:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rp-rt:

Danrules24,

To win a $1000

Game-1, -195, $1950 to win $1000, if "A" game loses then

Game-2, -200, $5900 to win $2950, if "B" game loses then

Game-3, -170, $15045 to win $8850.

I believe the max MLB bet in Vegas is $5000, That means you would have to spread your "C" game bet over 4 separate bets to make a $1000 profit on the series. Does this seem correct?


Yes, but risking $22895 to win $1000 seems stupid to me. I would rather valet cars part time for 3 weeks to make that money if I needed it.
rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#612
Posted: 8/24/2013 11:32:55 PM

NoSoLucky,

I agree with your risk assessment. This chase system is not meant to be used for a static win amount. It works if you just collect small amounts based on the money line risk for each bet. That way when you lose a few series, your not wiped out. So you can make money with this system but you cannot make a living with this system alone.

Riceboi PM Riceboi
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quote#613
Posted: 8/25/2013 1:06:42 AM
Love the discussion.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#614
Posted: 8/25/2013 2:43:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rp-rt:

Danrules24,

To win a $1000

Game-1, -195, $1950 to win $1000, if "A" game loses then

Game-2, -200, $5900 to win $2950, if "B" game loses then

Game-3, -170, $15045 to win $8850.

I believe the max MLB bet in Vegas is $5000, That means you would have to spread your "C" game bet over 4 separate bets to make a $1000 profit on the series. Does this seem correct?

Talking some big numbers here, much higher than my bankroll. I go a LOT less than that on the RPI system. I know people say you should never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on a single play, so I try to figure what that would be on a C game if I lost the A and B game at -200 each and C is -200.  I try to have that C game bet be less than 5% or so of my bankroll. Not sure if that is right or wrong but it makes 7 system losses a little more tolerable as I didn't get wiped out.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#615
Posted: 8/25/2013 2:45:01 AM

Saturday results:  Cincy wins on B game.

Record: 101-7

A: 65-43

B: 25-18

C: 11-7

rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#616
Posted: 8/25/2013 11:27:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Talking some big numbers here, much higher than my bankroll. I go a LOT less than that on the RPI system. I know people say you should never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on a single play, so I try to figure what that would be on a C game if I lost the A and B game at -200 each and C is -200.  I try to have that C game bet be less than 5% or so of my bankroll. Not sure if that is right or wrong but it makes 7 system losses a little more tolerable as I didn't get wiped out.

I was just giving you an example of what it could cost to win $1000 a game. your formula is very good for this system. Mine is similar except that I try to figure the "B" and "C" money lines by the "A" game money line and the probable starters for the "B" and "C" games. My main objective is the same as yours; to not have the bankroll allocated for this system wiped out by a poor season. Also, with proper money management, a good season takes care of itself.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#617
Posted: 8/26/2013 1:44:18 PM

Monday: We have LAD on the A game.

Record: 101-7

A: 65-43

B: 25-18

C: 11-7

parlay100 PM parlay100
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quote#618
Posted: 8/26/2013 3:39:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

You cracked the code for the secret ESPN RPI numbers? Well done.



going to share?
fulkgl PM fulkgl
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quote#619
Posted: 8/26/2013 4:32:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by parlay100:



going to share?

yes. busy right now.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#620
Posted: 8/27/2013 1:22:57 AM

Monday results:  LAD win on the A game.

Record: 102-7

A: 66-43

B: 25-18

C: 11-7

vegasjedi PM vegasjedi
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quote#621
Posted: 8/27/2013 5:26:13 AM
lookin forward to your next play
parlay100 PM parlay100
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quote#622
Posted: 8/27/2013 9:31:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fulkgl:


yes. busy right now.


You da man!!
fulkgl PM fulkgl
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quote#623
Posted: 8/27/2013 9:59:09 AM
i see tb and pit today as the last 2 2013 plays.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#624
Posted: 8/27/2013 12:25:06 PM

Tuesday plays: Pitt and Tampa on the A game. Last two official plays of the season. Will post unofficial plays through September.

Record: 102-7

A: 66-43

B: 25-18

C: 11-7

nghia1973 PM nghia1973
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quote#625
Posted: 8/27/2013 12:35:49 PM
How did the unofficial do last year?

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