Any math people here help me out?

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Any math people here help me out?
daytradernation PM daytradernation
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daytradernation
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Posted: 11/12/2013 6:15:12 PM
I hope I can write what I mean and you can comprehend what i'm saying!

A buddy of mine is a losing bettor like most of us.

He picks around 49-51%, plays about 5000 bets a year on average between all sports.

Now, is there any way I can fade his losers and make money or no because the juice will eat me alive?

If he goes 2500-2500, he loses juice and a lot of it. If I were going against his picks, I would have also lost juice.

So, it is a no win situation correct?

He plays the same amount each game, 100 dollars a bet.

Anyways, I just wanted to be sure.....


daytradernation PM daytradernation
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Posted: 11/12/2013 7:01:53 PM
if this guy goes 800-1000. I fade him, so I now go 1000-800.

Doing a 100 dollars per pick. I win 100,000. And lose 88,000. for a profit of 12,000?

He loses 110,000 and wins 80,000, for a net loss of 30,000.

Fuckkkin juice eats the profits right up!

I cant think of a way to profit off of this unless I could get 0 juice which is impossible......
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 11/12/2013 7:35:43 PM
Not trying to be a wise guy but I think you need to find something that does better than 50%. With that low juice you could always run a labby line (or multiple lines), but be aware of those 10 game losing streaks.
Bart_ PM Bart_
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Posted: 11/12/2013 7:38:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by daytradernation:

if this guy goes 800-1000. I fade him, so I now go 1000-800.

Doing a 100 dollars per pick. I win 100,000. And lose 88,000. for a profit of 12,000?

He loses 110,000 and wins 80,000, for a net loss of 30,000.

Fuckkkin juice eats the profits right up!

I cant think of a way to profit off of this unless I could get 0 juice which is impossible......

just bet against him, be his bookie.
daytradernation PM daytradernation
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Posted: 11/12/2013 7:46:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bart_:


just bet against him, be his bookie.


How? In my example above. He loses 1000 games, at 100 per game and the 10% vig, he loses 110000. He wins 80000, for a net loss of 30000.

If I bet against him, I only win 12000! Not the 30000, because I cant win his "juice", im not a bookie.

Example: last night, you bet dolphins for 100, you lose 110. I bet Tampa for 100, I only win 100. I dont get any "juice".

Now, flip the script. Sunday, hey bet NO for 100, I bet dallas, I lose -110, he wins the 100. Only the bookies can win the juice.

See what I mean now? You would need someone to win at a 30% rate which is close to impossible.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 11/12/2013 7:57:37 PM
I think Bart meant to take his action and act as his bookie. You win the $30k he loses.
Bart_ PM Bart_
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Posted: 11/12/2013 9:47:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I think Bart meant to take his action and act as his bookie. You win the $30k he loses.

Yes. 
Split the vig with him.
BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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Posted: 11/13/2013 7:42:42 AM
That's what I do.  A buddy likes to bet $10 on NFL per game.  For 15 years he's had a $100 to bet at the start of the season.  3 times he's done well enough to carry over that same amount to the next season, and only once have I had to pay him for his being up at the end of the year.  Already this year, he's at half what he started.  
ndsent1 PM ndsent1
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Posted: 12/5/2013 1:00:09 AM
That's what I would do, I would book his bet's...
jambo12 PM jambo12
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Posted: 12/5/2013 10:29:41 AM
Try backing Keynumber, dude hits 90%
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