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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#701
Posted: 7/2/2013 1:24:37 AM

Monday 7/1 results

Sagarin plays

YTD 12-10, +7.7 units

All 2 Units

No games

Dog EFF Score

0-1, - 1 unit

YTD 58-66, +6.00 units

Minn 101 Loss

Dog EFF

YTD 80-92, +1.78 units

All 2 units

no plays

System Plays

1-3, -1.97 units

YTD 264-323 +5.42 units

Det 124 Loss

Minn 101 Loss

NYM 103 WIN

SF 143 Loss

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#702
Posted: 7/2/2013 12:43:24 PM

Tuesday 7/2 games

Sagarin plays

YTD 12-10, +7.7 units

All 2 Units

No games

Dog EFF Score

YTD 58-66, +6.00 units

Tor 128

STL 115

Dog EFF

YTD 80-92, +1.78 units

All 2 units

Clev 101

NYY 102

System Plays

YTD 264-323 +5.42 units

Clev 101

NYY 102

Sea 141

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#703
Posted: 7/2/2013 5:56:03 PM
Should Colorado be a divisional dog play if getting +150 odds
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#704
Posted: 7/2/2013 6:13:30 PM

When I ran the spreadsheet, LAD -156. LAD/Colo just missed the road fave scenario.

We are looking for plays where the home team is favored by -116 to -149 or -170 to -249; also when a road team is favored by -106 to -154. See Degen's post on #455. for an explanation of the new Division dogs criteria.

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#705
Posted: 7/2/2013 6:16:22 PM
Refreshing the odds would make Colo a play now and remove Clev, but what I posted earlier is what I'll track.
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#706
Posted: 7/2/2013 6:38:12 PM
hey dan i sent a friedn request
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#707
Posted: 7/2/2013 10:24:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:

hey dan i sent a friedn request

Accepted

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#708
Posted: 7/3/2013 2:00:49 AM

Tuesday 7/2 results

Sagarin plays

YTD 12-10, +7.7 units

All 2 Units

No games

Dog EFF Score

0-2, -2 units

YTD 58-68, +4.00 units

Tor 128 Loss

STL 115 Loss

Dog EFF

2-0, +4.06 units

YTD 82-92, +5.84 units

All 2 units

Clev 101 WIN

NYY 102 WIN

System Plays

3-0, +3.44 units

YTD 264-323 +8.86 units

Clev 101 WIN

NYY 102 WIN

Sea 141 WIN

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#709
Posted: 7/3/2013 1:55:38 PM

Wednesday 7/3 games

Sagarin plays

YTD 12-10, +7.7 units

All 2 Units

Houston 133

Dog EFF Score

YTD 58-68, +4.00 units

Tor 113

STL 100

Dog EFF

YTD 82-92, +5.84 units

All 2 units

Sea 126

Cle 104

 

System Plays

YTD 264-323 +8.86 units

Sea 126

Cle 104

Mil 131

Philly 169

Miami 182

Colo 101

Sea/Tex Under 8 -115

STL/LAA Under 8.5 -110

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#710
Posted: 7/4/2013 2:12:58 AM

Wednesday 7/3 results

Sagarin plays

1-0, +2.66

YTD 13-10, +10.36 units

All 2 Units

Houston 133 WIN

Dog EFF Score

1-1, 0 units

YTD 59-69, +4.00 units

Tor 113 Loss

STL 100 WIN

Dog EFF

1-1, +.52 units

YTD 83-93, +6.36 units

All 2 units

Sea 126 WIN

Cle 104 Loss

System Plays

4-4, +1.29 units

YTD 268-327 +10.15 units

Sea 126 WIN

Cle 104 Loss

Mil 131 WIN

Philly 169 Loss

Miami 182 WIN

Colo 101 Loss

Sea/Tex Under 8 -115 WIN

STL/LAA Under 8.5 -110 Loss

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#711
Posted: 7/4/2013 12:57:37 PM

Thursday 7/4 games (sorry missed the early game)

Sagarin plays

YTD 13-10, +10.36 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

YTD 59-69, +4.00 units

Tor 115

 

Dog EFF

YTD 83-93, +6.36 units

All 2 units

NYY 114

Cle 129

Tor 115

Sea 120

Philly 118

 

System Plays

YTD 268-327 +10.15 units

NYY 114

Cle 129

Tor 115

Sea 120

Philly 118

Cubs 138

Mil 148

Mets 106

Mia 217

LAD 112

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#712
Posted: 7/5/2013 2:19:23 AM

Thursday 7/4 results

Sagarin plays

YTD 13-10, +10.36 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

0-1, -1 unit

YTD 59-70, +3.00 units

Tor 115 Loss

Dog EFF

2-3, -1.36 units

YTD 85-96, +5.0 units

All 2 units

NYY 114 WIN

Cle 129 Loss

Tor 115 Loss

Sea 120 Loss

Philly 118 WIN

System Plays

3-7, -2.51 units

YTD 271-334 +7.64 units

NYY 114 WIN

Cle 129 Loss

Tor 115 Loss

Sea 120 Loss

Philly 118 WIN

Cubs 138 Loss

Mil 148 Loss

Mets 106 Loss

Mia 217 WIN

LAD 112 Loss

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#713
Posted: 7/5/2013 1:10:45 PM

Friday 7/5 plays

Sagarin plays

YTD 13-10, +10.36 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

YTD 59-70, +3.00 units

Boston 124

Atlanta 137

Dog EFF

YTD 85-96, +5.0 units

All 2 units

KC 105

Atl 137

System Plays

YTD 271-334 +7.64 units

KC 105

Atl 137

Det 126

Hou 182

Cubs 126

Mets 108

Col 112

LAD 118

 

 

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#714
Posted: 7/6/2013 1:35:40 AM

Friday 7/5 results

Sagarin plays

YTD 13-10, +10.36 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

1-1, +.24 units

YTD 60-71, +3.24 units

Boston 124 WIN

Atlanta 137 Loss

Dog EFF

0-2, -4 units

YTD 85-98, +1.0 units

All 2 units

KC 105 Loss

Atl 137 Loss

System Plays

3-5, -1.48 units

YTD 274-339 +6.16 units

KC 105 Loss

Atl 137 Loss

Det 126 WIN

Hou 182 Loss

Cubs 126 Loss

Mets 108 WIN

Col 112 Loss

LAD 118 WIN

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#715
Posted: 7/6/2013 12:58:28 PM

Saturday 7/6 games

Sagarin plays

YTD 13-10, +10.36 units

All 2 Units

ChiSox 124

Dog EFF Score

YTD 60-71, +3.24 units

Oak 101

Bos 103

Phil 108

Dog EFF

YTD 85-98, +1.0 units

All 2 units

Balt 112

Clev 131

Bos 103

Phil 108

 

System Plays

YTD 274-339 +6.16 units

Balt 112

Clev 131

Bos 103

Phil 108

Cubs 108

LAD 157

Mets 129

Sox/Tampa Under 7 -120

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#716
Posted: 7/7/2013 12:44:51 PM

Saturday 7/6 results 

 Sagarin plays

0-1, -2 units

YTD 13-11, +8.36 units

All 2 Units

ChiSox 124 Loss

Dog EFF Score

0-3, -3 units

YTD 60-74, +.24 units

Oak 101 Loss

Bos 103 Loss

Phil 108 Loss

Dog EFF

0-4, -8 units

YTD 85-102, -7 units

All 2 units

Balt 112 Loss

Clev 131 Loss

Bos 103 Loss

Phil 108 Loss

System Plays

2-6, -3.92 units

YTD 276-345 +2.24 units

Balt 112 Loss

Clev 131 Loss

Bos 103 LOss

Phil 108 Loss

Cubs 108 WIN

LAD 157 Loss

Mets 129 Loss

Sox/Tampa Under 7 -120 WIN

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#717
Posted: 7/7/2013 1:02:31 PM
Hey guys, I think I'm done with this. The system has been going steadily down hill and honestly, this is not worth my time. If someone wants to pick it up from here please do but I'm going to concentrate my time and efforts elsewhere.
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sports_Network
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#718
Posted: 7/11/2013 11:13:41 AM
the systems consistentcy is "pre All-Star"  activated, I agree, the closer to the All-Star break, the more the system slowly regresses..the final judgement would be an excellent, and consistent "beginning of the season formulated sheet" alot of vg pre- allstar stuff-
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#719
Posted: 7/11/2013 11:16:54 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sports_Network:

the systems consistentcy is "pre All-Star"  activated, I agree, the closer to the All-Star break, the more the system slowly regresses..the final judgement would be an excellent, and consistent "beginning of the season formulated sheet" alot of vg pre- allstar stuff-

Thank you for the validation. Everything I have read stated that the best time to bet the dogs is pre all-star game.

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#720
Posted: 7/11/2013 2:13:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Thank you for the validation. Everything I have read stated that the best time to bet the dogs is pre all-star game.


I also agree Dan - I think this is an April to June system.  Maybe next year we can take a look at what angles did particularly well.  I would much rather limit the number of plays but increase the ROI
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#721
Posted: 7/12/2013 4:58:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:


I also agree- I think this is an April to June system.  Maybe next year we can take a look at what angles did particularly well.  "I would much rather limit the number of plays but increase the ROI"
   a well planned approach to the 2014 MLB season. opening day 'dogs'  to pre All-Star game 'dogs' DogEFF/DogScore it's all right here...good tracking, solid effort, well done
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#722
Posted: 2/7/2014 7:55:11 AM
i'd like to keep track for next season, do you think this spreadsheet from Degen will still work or do we have to make adjustments?
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#723
Posted: 2/16/2014 6:51:08 AM

good idea. HOWEVER, adjustments would have to be made to coincide with the upcoming MLB 2014 season, last years spreadsheet will work, modifications, and upgrades, will be in accordance to last years stats, they are projected very clear through out this thread.

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#724
Posted: 2/16/2014 9:19:13 AM
i believe it is safer to track selected home dogs and home favs. they generated more value last year. what kind of tweaks do you suggest?
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#725
Posted: 2/16/2014 10:24:22 AM
ok i'm not good using spread sheets and stuff like this.

I have a K I S S sytem for bases that is somewhat of a system even tho JEFFTHEHAT says it's only sound advice LOL he just stays on my nuts evry time i say i found something he says past 29 years it's only 52.16% LOL

29 years is way too far to use i stay within past 15 in nfl

any way with Bases #1 rule never ever bet aginst the streaks

stay on winners fade the losers wiseguys stay at -150 and under on all favorites they never touch big dogs or faves

Best time to back a dog is when you have #1 starter vs # 1 starter huge win % like i cant remember when i lost hwen i took a dog of any with it's ace starter on the mound.

usaually it's when you have younger pitcher vs the old age ace who cant go past 100 pitch count ...

also many starters do not get run support for some reason batters sit on pitches scared of striking out and your ace has to really smoke it for 8 innings with a 1-0 lead sure enough in comes weak bullpen as always and boom 3 runs scored in top of ninth.


This is why i prefer to use my eyes and paper and pen tracking teams starters with relivers.


also same thing in bases when a team wins as dog then is favored next game vs same team or differnt

they somehow lose.

I also watch when pithchers have performed way above thier norm like 16 conecutive innings without giving up a run when they are normally allowing 2-3 runs per game.

A profile correction will occurs 100% of the time.

HE will have a bad day and wind up in the showers fast.

Also watch out late august when teams are fighting to make playoffs the DOG days of summer is when your DOGS bark loudest.

every team in late sept after securing seeds will just play vanilla final 10 games and blow chunks ...

BUT beware some dogs just want to lose they know manager is going and changes coming next year that they need to stay healthy to get picked up by other teams.

streaks can go 10 games or more. how many years did the royals lose 100 games with 17 game streaks.

oooooo the NYY even when they win 100 games are so high priced all season you wind up negative $

i used to love betting on D rays vs NYY but now D rays are so much better they are favored vs NYY.

thats all i have for now


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