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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Nevada Books won $5,064,470 on SB XLVI
spiff send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 2/8/2012 4:28:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

it is odd that the two #1 seeds would have the easiest schedules... the formula that creates schedules is designed to do the opposite...


Prior to the realignment to 4 divisions the scheduling formula was designed to give the better teams the tougher schedule based on the previous seasons standings.

Since realignment there are only 2 games on the schedule based on where a team finishes in the standings. In addition to their 6 divisional games each team rotates through the other 3 divisions in their conference and through the other 4 divisions in the opposite conference. So 14 of the Patriots (plus the Packers and 30 other teams) opponents in 2012 were known in 2002.

The AFC East:

2008 - AFC West / NFC West
2009 - AFC South / NFC South
2010 - AFC North / NFC North
2011 - AFC West / NFC East
2012 - AFC South / NFC West
2013 - AFC North / NFC South

Each team will also play the 2 teams that finished in the same position in the 2 divisions within their conference that they are not playing that season. So the Patriots finished in first place and will play the first place teams in the AFC West and AFC South (Denver and Baltimore).

The NFC North, by the luck of the rotation, will also play the NFC West and AFC South.

So both the Packers and Patriots (as well as the other NFC North and AFC East teams) play 2 teams (Colts and Rams) that finished 2-14 last season. That will of course tend to lower those teams strength of schedule.

The only part of the scheduling that could be considered a formula is the 2 teams based on record and those would make the strength of schedule harder.

However, as you pointed out, it is not that accurate of an indicator. Here is the strength of schedule for the 2011 based on 2010 standings. The Patriots were tied for 15th. If you use the standings for 2011 only the Saints were lower.


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#27
Posted: 2/8/2012 4:30:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by spiff:



So the Patriots finished in first place and will play the first place teams in the AFC West and AFC South (Denver and Baltimore).




That should obviously be AFC North.

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#28
Posted: 2/9/2012 12:07:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dillon24:

Well they made it in 4 hours on the superbowl


i said, casino's at the strip make that on a slow day but i should have stated "individually". the bellagio or mgm probably doubles that on a slow weekday. sportsbook doesn't really account for more than 5% of a casinos daily profit. 
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#29
Posted: 2/9/2012 12:37:55 AM
2 million or 5 million or 10 million is peanuts for all the casinos combined.  Win or lose they make WAY more money on all the extra traffic for the weekend due to the game itself.
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#30
Posted: 2/9/2012 12:38:15 AM
Gaming revenue reports for Nevada casinos can be found here.
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#31
Posted: 2/15/2012 2:01:33 AM

very informative post, spiff... i was familiar with how the old formula worked, but never gave much thought to the new formula...

 

 

having said that, i double dare anybody to bet on the Pats to win the AFC East... you will lose that bet!

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#32
Posted: 2/15/2012 11:35:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

very informative post, spiff... i was familiar with how the old formula worked, but never gave much thought to the new formula...

 

 

having said that, i double dare anybody to bet on the Pats to win the AFC East... you will lose that bet!

It's a long off-season, Ice. A lot of personnel/coaches changes during this time span. Pats got a favorable schedule from NFL. They probably catch the big break from the League in 2012 on that easiet schedule, Dolphins need an elite QB, Miami might get Peyton Manning? Jets won't go anywhere under Mark Sanchez? One thing for sure, Pats will have to upgrade that below average defense to go deep in the playoffs.

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#33
Posted: 2/15/2012 1:21:10 PM

as far as casinos go books are for kooks!  low level profit margin operation that takes up valuable floor space.


5,000,000 spread among the whole state is chump change to them.


stop worrying about them.......lol.

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#34
Posted: 2/16/2012 1:21:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewlew:

as far as casinos go books are for kooks!  low level profit margin operation that takes up valuable floor space.


5,000,000 spread among the whole state is chump change to them.


stop worrying about them.......lol.

Give the man a cigar.. Casinos books are a perk nothing more nothing less.. NO casino made over 1.5 % of their profit for the year off their sportsbook.. PS it aint 5%.. Sportsbooks are where the owners flunkies and family work.. Vegas only cares once a year about their sportsbook thats on SB Sunday... the other 364 days its a perk.. Thats why for the average player they limit bet size.. Just a pain for them ..
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#35
Posted: 3/29/2012 7:11:41 PM
supeeeeeeerbowl weekend! parrrrrty... ne patroits choked!
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