7th Big Play of the Year......5-1 ytd

Forum: College Football
Author: [College Football] Topic: 7th Big Play of the Year......5-1 ytd
DBobs PM DBobs
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Posted: 10/6/2012 2:02:28 PM
SMU +2.5 at UTEP

Just about a perfect storm of factors here.

Firstly, if this game were played week 1 I think SMU would be about a 7 point favorite. That means either SMU must've played worse than expected so far or UTEP has exceeded expectations. For the most part I think both have done about what one would expect. SMU is 2-2 ats and UTEP is 2-3 ats. I know UTEP backers will say they played Oklahoma and Wisconsin close but I'm not sold. They ended up losing to Oklahoma 24-7 and their only score was a punt blocked returned for a touchdown. They lost 37-26 to Wisky as 17.5 point dogs but it's clear it's a down year for the Badgers.

SMU's only bad loss was vs Texas A&M where they were clearly outmatched. They only loss to TCU by 8 last week by 8 despite 6 turnovers. Gilbert has been moving the ball well but does need to cut back on his interceptions. I think he will be able to put up points with relative ease against UTEP's secondary.

Second, the public is all over UTEP with 63% of the covers community picking them to cover. This plus the fact that the line is 2.5 (my favorite number to take a dog) makes it seem like Vegas is begging for money on UTEP. I think SMU will start conference play with a TD+ win on the road but will gladly take the 2.5 points insurance.

BOL
sungod95 PM sungod95
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Posted: 10/6/2012 2:06:57 PM
DBobs PM DBobs
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Posted: 10/6/2012 6:17:53 PM
Line is down to +1. Gotta like the late action on my side. 
DBobs PM DBobs
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Posted: 10/6/2012 6:17:57 PM
Line is down to +1. Gotta like the late action on my side. 
DynastyOne PM DynastyOne
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Posted: 10/6/2012 9:04:09 PM
JMUstud PM JMUstud
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Posted: 10/6/2012 9:30:26 PM
Lets hang on for the win!
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DBobs PM DBobs
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Posted: 10/6/2012 11:24:47 PM
sungod95 PM sungod95
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Posted: 10/7/2012 10:25:23 AM
Good call!
Maddogvachon1 PM Maddogvachon1
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Posted: 10/7/2012 10:44:21 AM
Truely amazing. 
junesports1 PM junesports1
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Posted: 10/7/2012 11:58:41 AM
thekeynone PM thekeynone
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Posted: 10/8/2012 1:28:29 PM

Nice work DBobs!!!

I missed your pic but appreciate what you do!! Keep 'em coming!!

 

sooner59 PM sooner59
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Posted: 10/11/2012 11:18:48 PM
good reasoning and great pick will be following
Forum: College Football
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