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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Season Win Totals
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 7/2/2012 10:57:36 PM
Some good discussion in this thread about the upcoming season.

earthWake - You make good points about the CB's. They were quite a bit different on that unit with Smith and Davis playing together last year. I still do not like changing a defense that was successful though and the offense is going to be brutal. I can't see bringing in a TE who caught 8.7 yards per catch and 8 TD's in his entire college career (playing in a spread offense) having a big enough impact as an NFL rookie on a team with Matt Moore/Ryan Tannehill/David Garrard to move this offense up to a level beyond anemic. If this team finishes 8-8 it will be a tremendous season. I could be wrong though I had my first losing year in the NFL last year and it wasn't just a losing year it was god awful. Agree it will be fun keeping tabs on this team though.

ClubDirt - I couldn't take an Under with Green Bay. This team went 15-1 last season basically without a defense. The dropoff of the Packers defense from 2010 to 2011 was staggering. They were dominant in 2010 and were reason 1A (with Rodgers) as to why they won the Super Bowl. A lot of young guys who were excellent in 2010 (Williams, Shields, Raji, and even Matthews) were terrible last year. Maybe these kids got too much too early and got a little full of themselves as well. Their strategy last year was to watch with stars in their eyes as the offense dazzled and got a lead, then their job was to come in and sit back and look for turnovers. That ultimately did them in as the offense had a bad day in the playoff game and the defense didn't know what to do. I think there are a lot of players on this defense (and consequently the defense as a whole) that are primed for bounce back years. Green Bay also spent it's first 6 draft picks on defensive players. The offense will be a Top 3 unit as long as Rodgers is there. Green Bay won't win 15 games again but I really think they are going to be better than last year (if that makes sense).

My early read agrees with you on the Lions though I don't have a great feel yet. No doubt there is a lot of talent there, but there are also a lot of character/coaching questions as well. The Lions came back from 13 or more points down four times to win last season. There are two ways to look at that: #1. They showed great heart and showcased their talent when they focused and came back, or #2. How many really good teams put themselves in holes like that to begin with? The fact they went 1-5 against playoff teams (The lone win being 8-8 Denver) sends up an alarm bell as well. But if they find a running game, manager to piece together a secondary, and remain disciplined then they could win 10 games but that's a lot of ifs.

Houston can skate to a division title but I have a weird feeling with this team. No doubt they are immensely talented but if seems as if they are putting too much stock into their younger players. They lost Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Eric Winston, and Mike Breisel, the last two being the starting right side of the offensive line. When you trade/cut veterans like that who have been with the team for so long I think you lose a lot of leadership. While there may not be a drop in talent I do believe Houston will feel the emotion loss of those veterans more than anything.


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#27
Posted: 7/2/2012 11:14:10 PM
THEMUGG - Seattle is a very interesting team to me. At this point I don't feel confident enough to go Over 7 because I need to see more of Matt Flynn. This is a team worth watching though and one I will pick my spots with and bet early in the year if everything gels with a young and talented back 7. If Flynn turns out to be an average NFL QB and they find another pass rusher they can compete with SF. The Niners defense average 5.0 yards per play against last year and Seattle was 5.1..  Shhhhhhhh.

raffchfd - I have no feel whatsoever (in July) for the Saints. On one hand you could argue this offseason from hell will do them in. Losing your head coach and having the replacement come in after 6 games will be awkward to say the least. But on the other hand this team can play the whole "us against the world" card and go on a run proving people wrong like they did the year after Katrina. I can't gauge the pulse yet.


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#28
Posted: 7/2/2012 11:48:43 PM
raems - You have a much better read on the Jets than me but I am not high on this team either. I think we discussed this last season that they are what they are at this point which is a team that overachieved in the first two years under Rex and is probably closer to an 8-8 team that can sneak into the playoffs if the dice roll their way.

I have no idea what they were doing this offseason. Saying they want to change the locker room is one thing but how do they not part ways with Holmes given the fact he quit on the team last year and was the cause of so many problems? Bringing in Tebow was a disastrous idea. They might as well have cut Sanchez outright as they have shown they have zero confidence in him. The first incomplete pass this guy throws the fans with be clamouring for Tebow. If Sanchez had confidence issues before then I think he is doomed now. Tebow won't do anything either. This is a borderline 3rd string NFL QB who caught lightning in a bottle last year, nothing more nothing less. They are also putting too much stock into an average RB at best in Shonn Greene and an offensive line that took a step back last year. I think the defense has maxed out and overall they are what they are: a team that will probably finish from 7-9 to maybe 9-7 if the cards fall into place.


ezerik101 - I think the Bills can compete for a wildcard spot. Tough saying that with a team led by Ryan Fitzpatrick but I do think they have pieces. Mr. Harvard was terrible in the 2nd half last year though rumor was he was playing with bad ribs. He will have to cut down on the picks and find a #2 WR but I think they can make it work. The interior of this offensive line is top notch and if they can work the system so Jackson and Spiller get equal looks then the run game should be Top 3 in the league.

Buffalo's biggest changes in the offseason came on defense. They have upgraded a very questionable pass defense substantially. You have to be able to stop the pass in this league to compete and the Bills feel they have done that. New England, New Orleans, and Green Bay got away with giving up big yardage totals on pass defense last year but they were able to force turnovers and also had Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. The Bills have Ryan Fitzpatrick so upgrading a 26th rated pass defense in efficiency was a must (they also had the 3rd fewest sacks). This team not only brings in two starting DE's but they also get Kyle Williams back (made the Pro Bowl in 2010), they bring in Stephon Gilmore and also get full seasons out of Terrance McGee (played 5 games last year) and Aaron Williams (played 8). Those are massive upgrades to the defensive line and secondary, this defense can't help but be better against the pass. They may have questions against the run but stopping the run isn't as important as the pass. 5 of the 10 worst run defenses in terms of efficiency last year made the playoffs.

Not only is the pass defense much more talented but here are the projected QB's they will face this season: Mark Sanchez (2x), Matt Moore (2x), Brandon Weeden, Kevin Kolb, Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck, Andrew Luck, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Matt Flynn, Matt Schuab, and Tom Brady (2x). That's really only 3 games against QB's that I would be scared of. If this pass D greatly improves like I expect it is also big for Fitzpatrick. Instead of forcing balls in the 2nd half of games because his team is trailing, he is instead playing in close games where he can manage the team and hand the ball of to Jackson/Spiller. I don't see any value at Over 7.5 juiced big to the Over but I think this team will compete.


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#29
Posted: 7/2/2012 11:56:04 PM
nepatriots_12 - Good to see you buddy. I can't argue with the KC play as I have no feel for that division. I think Manning's effectiveness will dictate how that division plays out. If he is back to his old self Denver will be tough to beat. If he's an aging player that is a shell of his former self then the division is up for grabs.

I do think Oakland may have the worst defense in the league though. If Carson Palmer plays as bad as he did last year this team won't win 6 games.


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#30
Posted: 7/3/2012 3:01:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

Really like Seattle O7...............should be able to go at least 4-2 in division & have a fairly easy schedule with Carolina, Detroit, Miami, Buffalo, & Minny. If the OL can stay healthy for once this is a playoff squad. With their D & run game they don't need Flynn to set any passing records.

\
I think you are onto something here ...my book has it at 7.5 though  ...id' hit the 7 for sure... but i hate .5's in anything i can't buy
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#31
Posted: 7/12/2012 3:48:33 AM
Im leaning towards these picks but would like to hear your thoughts on these before I pull the trigger

Bears over 8.5 (-200)
Browns under 5.5 (-140)
Colts under 5.5 (-170)
Giants Under 9.5 (-180)
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#32
Posted: 7/12/2012 10:26:07 AM
andarmac, just got back to this thread.  i really like that st louis over.

as for the lions, they have several problems in my estimation.  i read a good article on espn.com of all places talking about aging offensive lines.  historically, when the combined age of the OL starters hits 150, there is a major dropoff with the team.  considering that OL is probably the most important part of any team, perhaps tied with DL, this makes sense.  anyway, there were two teams that may qualify- detroit and baltimore.  i like both to go under, especially detroit with all of their other problems and the fact that they are overhyped because of their offense and a few big name players.
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#33
Posted: 7/12/2012 7:21:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dubfire:


easy teams? The Dolphins will be lucky to go 4-3 but I'm glad you mentioned those teams because all their other games it's virtually a guaranteed loss. Also, there's a chance that Tannehill will start after the bye week and if that happens you can kiss the season goodbye.  

Solid argument.

Dolphins beat the Bills twice last year, the Jets once, and played the Pats tough twice.

Keep thinking you know everything about a team you know nothing about. 
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#34
Posted: 7/12/2012 7:37:33 PM
Another reason it is smart to avoid the Dolphins O/U is simply because they are a very inconsistent team. However when they play their best football, they can hang with ANY TEAM in the league.

Against the Giants, they were up 14-3 on the road, and up 17-13 in the final 5 minutes until Eli hit a 25 yard TD pass to give the G-men a 20-17 win. Against the Pats, they held a 7-0 lead and a 17-0 lead on the road until surrendering a 4th quarter lead. I picked these two teams because they went to play in the superbowl.

I was never a fan of Sparano, he was simply just a motivator who couldn't get the job done. I'm very happy they finally will change up their offense and spread the formations out.

Also Matt Moore threw for 16 TD's and 9 ints (That includes starting the year with 0 TD's and 3 INTs after the Fins coaches threw him to the wolves his first start vs the Jets after Henne's injury. David Garrard also played amazing and led his team to the playoffs a few years back when given the chance to be a full time starter. He only lost his job because of injury. My point being both of these quarterbacks can be classified as 'slightly below average' but to call them 'anemic' is a joke. Quarterbacks like Caleb Hanie, Curtis Painter and Mark Sanchez are anemic.

My overall point being, there is no value betting on the over (simply because QB play is the most important position in sports, and lack of ability to hold late leads) and no value betting the under (easy schedule, solid D and run game) I would bet ANY amount of money the Dolphins win more than 5 games, but cannot see them winning more than 8-9.

Translation - Avoid this team and find a better spot.
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#35
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:10:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shaps17:

Im leaning towards these picks but would like to hear your thoughts on these before I pull the trigger

Bears over 8.5 (-200)
Browns under 5.5 (-140)
Colts under 5.5 (-170)
Giants Under 9.5 (-180)


Bears - I know a lot of people like this team to do some real damage this year but I'm not buying the hype. At the end of the day they still have a bad offensive line and Jay Cutler. Everyone says "ahhhh well they were doing so good before the injuries last year" but they were 1-3 against playoff teams with all the losses coming by double digits and the lone win coming in a game against Detroit that Stafford played with a broken finger and literally handed to the Bears by throwing 4 picks. I'm not impressed. We'll see if having a full season of Carimi there can make a difference. Brandon Marshall is immature and stupid. Miami essentially gave him away for a bucket of footballs. Whatever he brings on some game changing plays he will throw away with his attitude, immaturity and dumb penalties. Those years Marshal and Cutler teamed up in Denver were nothing special. Cutler was barely above average those years and they never had a winning record. Is Brandon Marshall going to elevate Jay Cutler into the elite? The highest rating Cutler has ever had for a full season is 88.1 and that was way back in 2007. Last year he had a career worst completion % in fact. He's always been overrated because he has a big arm and once in a while he'll make some jaw-dropping throws. Unfortunately people seem to be forgetting all the bad overthrows, forced balls resulting in INT's, and a guy who laid down and quit on his team in the NFC Championship game. This guy is not a winner. He's 29 now and I believe got married in the offseason so maybe he was finally matured and "gets it", we'll see but putting this team as a Super Bowl contender just because they bring in Marshall and Bush and draft a fat Alshon Jeffrey is quite a stretch in my opinion.

I know that doesn't have much to do with going Over 8.5 -200 but I feel this team is overrated. That doesn't mean they can't win 9 games though. My question is why lay 200? Why not just go Over 9 at a much better price if you like the bet? Personally I wouldn't touch it but if you like the bet then fire. Trust your research and gut.

Browns - Tough call here. I personally wouldn't lay -140 to go Under 5.5. I do think this team has the potential to be respectable. The Browns actually had a good defense last year for once. They were 5th in points against and 9th in yards per play. Pretty good and they got better as the year went on. They only allowed 17.1 PPG over the 2nd half of the year but went 1-7 and lost 5 games by 6 points or less because the offense was absolutely pathetic.

The defense has lost DT Phil Taylor for a good chunk of the year already. Let's say they replace 75% of him and still end up with a respectable defense. Is the offense improved enough to at least be somewhat respectable? If it is then this team will steal some games, if not they probably win 5 games. The running game is going to be improved a lot with Richardson there. I know a lot of people aren't sold on Weeden (and the lack of playmakers) but here is the question: If Weeden happens to bomb and is horrible, is he really any worse than what they had at the position last year? My opinion is no. And that is worst case scenario. This is a good team to watch in the preseason, if Weeden looks decent then the Browns could do more than expected. If he looks bad it may be another long year. I think Baltimore and Cincinnati are both down a fair amount this year too, it's not farfetched they go 2-2 against them.

Colts - Haven't looked too much into them yet. At first glance they look like the worst team in the league. They almost have an entire new team and coaching staff and it's questionable as to whether or not some of these players belong on NFL rosters. I'm a big Luck backer and think he will be very good eventually but even if he plays better than expected this year is he good enough to elevate the rest of this team? I doubt it. The lone vets they kept are on the wrong side of 30 and switching Mathis and Freeney from 4-3 DE's to 3-4 OLB's at this point in their careers could be a real challenge. This team is in a complete rebuild and probably won't sniff a winning record for at least 2 maybe 3 years. Remember Peyton Manning went 3-13 in his rookie year. Damn just checked the Under 5.5 is up over -200 now.

Giants - Really have no feel here. I think Dallas and Philadelphia are just as talented as them. This team almost always starts out well and then falls off down the stretch. Last year they just happened to stop that fall late and squeaked into the playoffs. They will probably be in the same situation this year. Number looks tight to me.


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#36
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:05:56 AM
denver under.....
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#37
Posted: 7/13/2012 3:38:28 PM
Thanks for replying mac.  Im sorta new to the NFL so Im trying to learn as much as I can.  I appreciate the detailed breakdown and you make alot of good points.  

If you ever feel like breaking down some more teams, I would be very interested in reading more.  Thanks again
 
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#38
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:47:25 AM
Was looking at the Cardinals under 7 @ -150 here.  Right off the bat they will have difficult divisional games with the seahawks improving, at best they split with the rams, and the 49ers will crush them.  (Personally, this bet looks more appealing to me because i am high on the rams.)  We all saw how disastrous Kolb was and he may be in qb battle with Skelton.  I dont know how great their o-line is but beanie wells will not be able to carry the offense himself.  Their defensive line is solid with campbell and dockett but thats about it other than patterson the kick returning CB.  Whisenhunt could be one of the worst head coaches in the league as well and this year they have a new D-coordinator in Ray Horton (his first big coaching position).

Schedule doesn't help them either:
@ NE
vs. Eagles
@ GB
@ ATL
@NYJ
vs.Det
vs. Chi
vs. Miami
vs. Buffalo
@ Minn

i can see maybe 2-3 wins out of those opponents.  If Fitzgerald starts losing focus and/or michael floyd doesn't live up to expectations, this could be along season for the cardinals.
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#39
Posted: 7/16/2012 12:56:51 AM
Jacksonville brought in Nathan Enderle QB on 6/21...lot of faith in Gabbert I see    JAgs 
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#40
Posted: 7/16/2012 11:12:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

Was looking at the Cardinals under 7 @ -150 here.  Right off the bat they will have difficult divisional games with the seahawks improving, at best they split with the rams, and the 49ers will crush them.  (Personally, this bet looks more appealing to me because i am high on the rams.)  We all saw how disastrous Kolb was and he may be in qb battle with Skelton.  I dont know how great their o-line is but beanie wells will not be able to carry the offense himself.  Their defensive line is solid with campbell and dockett but thats about it other than patterson the kick returning CB.  Whisenhunt could be one of the worst head coaches in the league as well and this year they have a new D-coordinator in Ray Horton (his first big coaching position).

Schedule doesn't help them either:
@ NE
vs. Eagles
@ GB
@ ATL
@NYJ
vs.Det
vs. Chi
vs. Miami
vs. Buffalo
@ Minn

i can see maybe 2-3 wins out of those opponents.  If Fitzgerald starts losing focus and/or michael floyd doesn't live up to expectations, this could be along season for the cardinals.


all of that makes sense except the part where it says -150. 
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#41
Posted: 7/16/2012 11:28:56 PM
got it off pinnacle for sure higher at other books
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#42
Posted: 7/16/2012 11:53:07 PM
are you for real 800 word write ups without talking about the schedule, something that's just a tad more important than last year's YPC

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#43
Posted: 7/19/2012 3:35:06 PM
Any advice on when the right time is to place win total futures or any advice on how I can determine when the right time is? Thanks.
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#44
Posted: 7/25/2012 11:58:16 PM
there is no "right" time.  if you have a good price or good "value" in your mind then put in the wager.  these futures can fluctuate pretty rapidly based on injuries, trades, and other breaking news.  Unless you have inside info when one of those types of events i just mentioned are going to occur its pretty much luck whenever you put in future like this.  no way to determine the right time
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#45
Posted: 7/26/2012 10:26:18 PM
How about Gb under 12 -120 seems high given sf, giants, bears and lions 2x
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#46
Posted: 7/28/2012 1:14:03 AM

Andy Mac in da house!!!  How you doing, brotha man?  I haven't looked at anything NFL related, but I go back to work after a few week vacation on Monday and then it's on!

As I said, I haven't looked at anything, so not the most educated opinion, but I think Carolina has an okay shot of just going 8-8 to foil your under wager.  Everybody is talking CAM CAM CAM, but they also have a great O-line and a helluva running attack if they use those guys right.  Also, like you said the D is straight up bad, but can only go up(getting some injured guys back and also drafted players).  Same with special teams.  I don't have any notes in front of me, but I vaguely recall the Panthers being absolutely PUTRID especially in kick coverages.  So Idk.  Marginal improvement in D and ST and Cam playing on par to last year while really using the run attack and 8-8 doesn't seem tough to hit.  But again, this is PURELY my instincts talking and going off blurry memories of last year.  In a few weeks, after some research, and I could completely do a 180.

Agree with you on the Miami Under(again just instincts and no real capping involved).  That division should beat them down with 6 of 16 against a really good AFC east.  Miami has some horses, but in the end Moore or Tannahill(true rook) having no one to throw to and the coaches coming out talking of a SPREAD offense when their only real strength is running the ball?  Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

I'll pop back in here with some better opinions a little later on when I'm more educated on this young season.  I'm really coming out to kill this season.  The last couple years have been a bit inconsistent, but I think I have learned a lot.  Profitable seasons, but not at the level I expect from myself(last year was okay, but two years ago was a crazy roller coaster ride and only an insane playoff run had me come out positive money).  The NFL has morphed into some very different than the sport I have been capping since I was 13, and I think I have it figured out.  I'm tweaking how I bet a bit, cutting down my total weekly bets(but bumping up units from 125 to 300), and getting away from some other distractions, and looking to really make a buck this season!

Good luck this year, my friend, and I look forward to the weekly BS back and forth! 

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#47
Posted: 7/29/2012 3:59:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Miami Dolphins UNDER 7.5



Your probably right, but  to add some insight: The transition to a 4-3 will not be as difficult as you suggest. Although labeled as a 3-4, Nolan ran a 4-3 on at least 80% of snaps. Their best Cam Wake has been most effective with his hand in the dirt. Over the last 2 seasons he is 2nd in combined sacks+pressures and last year led in the league in holdings with 13 (6 more than any other player). He was a true end in CFL where he wracked it. Dansby will have more of transition but I don’t think he will much of problem being one of the most instinctive lb’s in the league.  Last season he came in at 270 and dropped down to 248.  This camp he came in 248.

Sean Smith gave up a td on a cramp. The players on the sidelines were huffing oxygen. This will not happen this year. Tony Sparano had run his course. Ross made a mockery of him by pursuing Harbor and he lost the ear of the team. The players came in noticeably out of shape and it showed. Opening week they drew NE on MNF. Sean Smith gave up a td on a cramp. The players on the sidelines were huffing oxygen. This will not happen this year.  We’ve seen it before with. That was Miami’s superbowl and after losing they were flat for weeks.

Kinda like when the got rid of Cam expect this team to play with some pride. Last thing, David Garrard is clearly going to start. Tannehill is not even the debate and most likely will not see any significant playing time.

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#48
Posted: 7/29/2012 5:47:47 PM
Rams OVER 6

Remember Mr Andy, all the unknowns and variables  that lie within an NFL campaign

I'm happy you are wagering on more OVERs
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#49
Posted: 7/30/2012 12:08:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Crusher13:

Rams OVER 6

Remember Mr Andy, all the unknowns and variables  that lie within an NFL campaign

I'm happy you are wagering on more OVERs

will be interesting to see if Fisher can be responsible for  contributing an additional 4 wins in his first year
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#50
Posted: 7/30/2012 8:21:23 PM
I can't frame your qoute Michfan BUT..............I really LOVE the addition of Jeff Fisher to that young Hungry Ram squad

I am a BIG believer in that coach and I forget to mention him my  post What a difference Fisher will make this year. I think ANDY is right on this over Worst case Ewes go 6-10 and you push. Remember, Sam Bradford WAS a #1 pick
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