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Author: [College Football] Topic: NCAA week 7 ***** Biggest bet I've ever made happens on Oct 13th*****
TRAIN69
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#26
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:03:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tideman:

love the card so far.. Texas, Stanford, West Virg and Florida ....

LSU better find an offense, or they will get run out of the stadium...

I snoozed on the early Bama line... already up to 21 when I bought

best of luck this week



You should be just fine with that line. Should be covered by halftime.


tide
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#27
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:04:09 AM
now i wonder why every body and their evil stepmother and person sister is on LSU -2
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#28
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:08:39 AM
Train 

just BET all of it on West Virginia at -4



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-29-
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#29
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:08:59 AM

Best of luck this week TRAIN!  Not to be the contrarian but there is one stat that would seem to favor Mizzou here. The past 10 seasons, college football road favorites of 10 or more points coming off a bye week were just 34-68-2 against the point spread. That's a dismal 33.3 percent against the number.*

 Last week's USC-14 at Utah comes to mind. The article that I quoted goes on to state that "look aheads" may account for part of this imbalance. 'Bama has Tennessee after Missouri so I doubt that that theory will be in play here.

Again best of luck, I also have Washington State on my short list.

*sportsgambling.about.com/od/ncaafootballbetting/a/ncaafbbyes.htm

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TRAIN69
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#30
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:20:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Capper007:

I think your delusional about Alabama!!! I got it at -17.5 now -21 "YOUR" team Mizzou WILL score...How much will Bma score though???

Im thinking

Alabama 38

Mizzou  17....Push now....Loss by this afternoon THIS LINE WILLMOVE TO THE -25.5 RANGE BY GAME TIME!!

I got it in early

Football - NCAA - Alabama vs. Missouri - Alabama 10/13/2012 3:30:01 PM- (EST)
-17½ -110

Now its at -21 and i dont see any value in a 3 TD road favorite!! GL

With you on all others except OU and Washington, which i will not be betting!!



How am I delusional? If Mizzou was healthy or playing well I would agree with you. They are off a stretch of UGA, Az St, So Car , UCF and Vandy. Theyve managed 18 ppg in those contests. In those 5 games, they have scored 47 total points in the 2nd h......they get tired and injured every single game. They havent had a break and just faced 5 pretty tough defense with 2 road games thrown in there.....

Mizzou has zero deep passing threat even if they have time to throw the ball. The delayed handoffs Pinkel/Yost like to run will not work vs Bama (they never really work anyway). So, that leaves the short passing game. I dont think thats gonna be very fruitful either.

Bama has given up 35 points all year and only 14 first half points. Michigan, Ole Miss, and Arkansas (yes, even this years bunch) are teams at least on Mizzous level, if not better. So to say Mizzou is gonna put up 17 is a bold statement indeed. If they score 3 times, which nobody has been able to do to Bama in the last 2 years (except Georgia Southern puttin 21 on the board ), I will tip my cap to them.


Bama 41-0 or Bama 41-3 or 7




Capper
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#31
Posted: 10/8/2012 12:44:09 PM
Damn.  I may be drunk or something, but I don't think they should be giving more than 2 TDs on the road this week.  GL though.  Most likely a stay away for me.
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#32
Posted: 10/8/2012 12:52:44 PM
Thanks for the insight Train.  I just bumped Bama from 3 U to 5 U play.  With Franklin out, I don't see how in the hell you guys move the ball at all.  Are Ebner and the other LB that got hurt last week going to play?
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#33
Posted: 10/8/2012 12:55:30 PM
Train,

Hope you had a good week.

Any upsets among these? Arizona state, Ohio, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Michigan, San diego state, UL Monroe?

Thanks bro.
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#34
Posted: 10/8/2012 12:59:19 PM
Hey Train, been posting here very infrequently over the past 8 months or so, just wanted to stop by and wish you good luck rest of the way this year and offer my two cents on this Bama Mizzou game. 

You touched on a lot of this from Mizzou perspective, an interesting point here is that from a Bama perspective they should come in with their fools on fire. I watched the entire Bama Ole Miss game, not only did Bama not cover but they played like garbage. The oline inexplicably struggled with their one on one matchups, running game never got going, and the defense just looked sluggish at times. I know Bama won comfortably, but watching that game you could just tell they were going through the motions expecting to win while sleepwalking. Type of game film that Saban can really hammer the team over going into the bye week, I'm not on the game because I personally think there is no value on any Bama road game but definitely don't blame you taking them in this spot. Don't know necessarily how much they'll win by, but I'd be very very surprised if they didn't put forth an extremely sharp effort this week. GL with the rest of your card.
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#35
Posted: 10/8/2012 1:00:58 PM
Train,
If this is going to be your biggest wager ever by the end of the week, I'm assuming you're playing this at -21.5 as well, correct?  Your sportsbook had this one circled when it briefly opened at 17.5. They capped my wager at $100 at that price.

I know you bet well over $100, especially your biggest play.  How much exposure are you going to give on 21.5 points and higher throughout the week?
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#36
Posted: 10/8/2012 1:37:52 PM
Laying 3TDs on the road in SEC-play isn't a great strategy typically.  See Auburn vs LSU a few weeks back.  

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#37
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:31:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kroch:

Laying 3TDs on the road in SEC-play isn't a great strategy typically.  See Auburn vs LSU a few weeks back.  



Mizzou is a middle tier Big 12 team. They still have middle tier Big 12 talent, not SEC talent, especially on defense and o line.

I wouldnt favor them over any team in the SEC right now.
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TRAIN69
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#38
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:32:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Damn.  I may be drunk or something, but I don't think they should be giving more than 2 TDs on the road this week.  GL though.  Most likely a stay away for me.


Maybe they shouldnt. If I didnt watch Mizzou so closely I would probably agree. I think people are looking for a FSU/NCST type game.....


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TRAIN69
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#39
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:35:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by -29-:

Best of luck this week TRAIN!  Not to be the contrarian but there is one stat that would seem to favor Mizzou here. The past 10 seasons, college football road favorites of 10 or more points coming off a bye week were just 34-68-2 against the point spread. That's a dismal 33.3 percent against the number.*

 Last week's USC-14 at Utah comes to mind. The article that I quoted goes on to state that "look aheads" may account for part of this imbalance. 'Bama has Tennessee after Missouri so I doubt that that theory will be in play here.

Again best of luck, I also have Washington State on my short list.

*sportsgambling.about.com/od/ncaafootballbetting/a/ncaafbbyes.htm



No problems 29, thats what this site is for

I would think that Bama is better than all those teams from the stats and their opponent is wounded, playing a back up qb with a patchwork o line.....I doubt Bama is looking ahead since Mizzou is a new opponent whom they dont have a history of beating down (until after this year)


29
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#40
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:41:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by themog:

Thanks for the insight Train.  I just bumped Bama from 3 U to 5 U play.  With Franklin out, I don't see how in the hell you guys move the ball at all.  Are Ebner and the other LB that got hurt last week going to play?


I dont know yet if they will play. My hunch is that Pinkel will keep most of the injured guys out to preserve them for winnable games. I sure as hell wouldnt put my key guys on the field at 80% vs Bama.



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TRAIN69
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#41
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:45:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The-Kid-Is-Good:

Train,
If this is going to be your biggest wager ever by the end of the week, I'm assuming you're playing this at -21.5 as well, correct?  Your sportsbook had this one circled when it briefly opened at 17.5. They capped my wager at $100 at that price.

I know you bet well over $100, especially your biggest play.  How much exposure are you going to give on 21.5 points and higher throughout the week?


I already have several bets in at -17 at various places and locals ( i usually get slightly better lines than most simply because of where I live and people like to bet Mizzou, same works when I bet against the cardinals with a local). I bet through some friends accounts when I want to go bigger than normal. I also have Bama teased with Houston tonight for a decent size bet. I will be adding more bets throughout the week, so I will have random bets from above -17. I will have 1st h, team totals and alternate spread bets as well as winning margin if available.


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#42
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:07:51 PM

Good luck, Train!  I like it!  No way I see MO keeping this one close.

Super Chicken

PS - Even if I disagreed, I wouldn't be a "hater".  I don't want you to tell me to go darn myself.  

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#43
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:15:00 PM
hahaha...i love the enthusiasm! good luck!
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TRAIN69
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#44
Posted: 10/8/2012 8:11:12 PM

Add:

BYU -2.5

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#45
Posted: 10/8/2012 9:06:25 PM
totally agree
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#46
Posted: 10/9/2012 12:39:29 AM
GL Train... Any thoughts on the Miss?  I think they improved 3TDs the day Nutt walked, and Aub is turrible(Barkley)...Can't score 14 against the Hogs....
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#47
Posted: 10/9/2012 12:50:45 AM
I see a 41-9 Bama blowout
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#48
Posted: 10/9/2012 1:18:08 AM
BOL Bud like your work and im going large on BAMA as well
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#49
Posted: 10/9/2012 2:02:29 AM
Damn where did you get Kent state +3 I have them at -1.5?!?
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#50
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:54:20 AM
GL Train
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