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circa_clown |
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#776 Posted: 5/11/2012 9:08:48 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by yysmer:
Hi I'm also looking for the relation between line movements and results in baseball totals. Can you please explain how you do that because I found it inaccurate sometimes.
I use the method of progressive line moves like Czech does, except I have been using scoresandodds.com.
I start by looking for a half point movement in the o/u. Then I go to covers consensus. I will immediately take the pick if public is 55% or more on the other side of the move.
I do have one exception that Czech does not do, and it applies for all sports..
IF there is a consensus across the board, I will do the pick. --For example-- Say Giants are at Dodgers and the line moves from 7 to 6.5. I go to MLB consensus and find that the Under is the consensus (55% or more) for the Public, the Top 10%, and the Team Experts. I will do the pick in this case.
!!But Remember!!
It is important for the line to move Progressively.. If it moves back and forth, then it is no good. A progressive line move is the sign of the sharp, and shows that the sharps are in agreement with the public about the o/u line.
-->If the sharps agree with the public, chances are the line would move that way even without public money coming in. That's why I have that exception.
I have done this system for a couple months now and it is pretty impressive. It seems to have a 55%-60% win ratio. But more research is necessary..
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Ezmoney123 |
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#777 Posted: 5/11/2012 9:09:40 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR: Hey started new record the other night and forgot to post results yesterday (1-1 personal picks) since there were no system plays.
3-0 system 1-1 personal
Both picks tonight mem and under are personal picks.
Czech no offense but I dont want your PERSONAL PLAYS. I want the system 1.0 and 2.0 plays. You personal plays are = to a Buster's play, no offense. 
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CZECH_RAZOR |
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#778 Posted: 5/11/2012 9:58:44 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Ezmoney123: Czech no offense but I dont want your PERSONAL PLAYS. I want the system 1.0 and 2.0 plays. You personal plays are = to a Buster's play, no offense.
Lol this may be true. Don't care what you want though. |
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yysmer |
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#779 Posted: 5/11/2012 10:03:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by circa_clown:
I use the method of progressive line moves like Czech does, except I have been using scoresandodds.com.
I start by looking for a half point movement in the o/u. Then I go to covers consensus. I will immediately take the pick if public is 55% or more on the other side of the move.
I do have one exception that Czech does not do, and it applies for all sports..
IF there is a consensus across the board, I will do the pick. --For example-- Say Giants are at Dodgers and the line moves from 7 to 6.5. I go to MLB consensus and find that the Under is the consensus (55% or more) for the Public, the Top 10%, and the Team Experts. I will do the pick in this case.
!!But Remember!!
It is important for the line to move Progressively.. If it moves back and forth, then it is no good. A progressive line move is the sign of the sharp, and shows that the sharps are in agreement with the public about the o/u line.
-->If the sharps agree with the public, chances are the line would move that way even without public money coming in. That's why I have that exception.
I have done this system for a couple months now and it is pretty impressive. It seems to have a 55%-60% win ratio. But more research is necessary..
I'm kinda doing the same thing. I think one important thing is to figure out whether the line movement is to balance the public or it's because of sharps' expectation. One different I found is that in NBA playoffs there are significant line movements (a whole point like from 178 to 177) 5~15 minutes before games, but I couldn't find them in baseball. These "game time" line movements have been extremely accurate so far.
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CZECH_RAZOR |
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#780 Posted: 5/11/2012 10:03:08 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Ezmoney123: Czech no offense but I dont want your PERSONAL PLAYS. I want the system 1.0 and 2.0 plays. You personal plays are = to a Buster's play, no offense.
Furthermore the 101 plays you can figure out yourself now since I already gift-wrapped the system for you.
The 2.0 system is my new project now and you do need those if/when 101 doesn't give them to you. |
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CZECH_RAZOR |
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#781 Posted: 5/11/2012 10:18:11 PM |
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Fishonland |
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#782 Posted: 5/11/2012 10:20:45 PM |
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TGoBigRed |
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#783 Posted: 5/11/2012 11:13:22 PM Under would be system play, right?  |
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#784 Posted: 5/11/2012 11:26:38 PM Under would be system play, right?
Next game? If so I haven't looked yet. |
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#785 Posted: 5/11/2012 11:28:19 PM |
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#786 Posted: 5/11/2012 11:52:42 PM |
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#787 Posted: 5/11/2012 11:56:34 PM |
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misterstats |
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#788 Posted: 5/11/2012 11:58:06 PM
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#789 Posted: 5/11/2012 11:59:03 PM
This makes me think back to when the dude said the only flaw in my system is taking a shitty price on every pick, and I said that's the price of being on the sharp side every time. |
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#790 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:01:04 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by misterstats: Yeah I pushed and won. Those who took Memphis -2.5 took too long to wager. Still a good night.
I pushed and won also but wanted the posted line to hit also. Sigh. Memphis shoulda covered -2.5 also, and I don't mind posting a loss by 1/2 a point.
Anyways I had $230 on Memphis -2 and $200 on the under 178.5. I'll take that since I thought it was gonna go over. |
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TexansSwagga |
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#791 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:02:40 AM |
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CZECH_RAZOR |
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#792 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:02:41 AM |
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misterstats |
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#793 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:03:47 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
I pushed and won also but wanted the posted line to hit also. Sigh. Memphis shoulda covered -2.5 also, and I don't mind posting a loss by 1/2 a point.
Anyways I had $230 on Memphis -2 and $200 on the under 178.5. I'll take that since I thought it was gonna go over.
Dude that was with Randy Foye hitting that 3. When they inbounded the ball to Conley I was shouting "Run Fool! Run!" LOL |
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#794 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:05:06 AM |
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#795 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:05:30 AM |
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Guaji |
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#796 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:08:17 AM
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TexansSwagga |
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#797 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:08:21 AM |
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misterstats |
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#798 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:12:19 AM
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#799 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:27:43 AM
System 2.0 record 4-1 YTD 1-1 today |
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#800 Posted: 5/12/2012 12:32:53 AM
If we looked at the system's performance vs opening lines in regulation. I already know the % would be retarded. Compare that to that buster's record vs opening lines in regulation.
Guys we're on the right track here. Sometimes you will take a 3 pt move and lose by 1/2 a point. Does that mean you shoulda acted sooner? NO. You can't have both. Either pick your picks or follow the sharps. I guarantee you you'll do better following the sharps.
I take way more unders than overs, and sometimes those unders lose cuz of last minute dumb garbage, OT, and/or because of a worse price after a line move. That all sounds bad until you see you're still hitting over 60%. |
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