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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Serious Streak Survivor Strategies
CZECH_RAZOR
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#8476
Posted: 5/5/2012 12:37:00 PM
Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 (link)

Guys look at the Clippers total.  Line has moved from 187.5 to 184.5, and 60% of Covers busters are on the over.

I have to look at this some more closer to game time but the Clips under so far looks like the sharp play

Clips under to the bank 
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#8477
Posted: 5/5/2012 1:03:49 PM
1. Los Angeles Dodgers-1.5  +120
Los Angeles Dodgers - (L) C CAPUANO at
Chicago Cubs - (R) C VOLSTAD
2. (5-Inning) Under3.5  -120
Phila. (5-Inning) - (R) V WORLEY at
Washington (5-Inning) - (L) G GONZALEZ
3. Baltimore (5-Inning) -105
Baltimore (5-Inning) - (R) J HAMMEL at
Boston (5-Inning) - (R) A COOK
4. Chicago White Sox (5-Inning) +105
Chicago White Sox (5-Inning) - (R) G FLOYD at
Detroit (5-Inning) - (R) M SCHERZER
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#8478
Posted: 5/5/2012 1:04:08 PM

4-Team Parlays1@ $120.00
Potential Win:$1,817.15
Total Bet:$120.00
Total Potential Win:$1,817.15

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smoothd20
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#8479
Posted: 5/5/2012 2:37:41 PM
Everybody and their mother is on the Clippers and guess what so am I.  After surveying the board I think the pick of the day is the Clippers. The crowd will be rocking in LA as the Clippers play their first Playoff home game since WWII. That was a very long time ago. I'm obviously kidding, but there is no doubt the Staples center will be rocking tonight to root the Clippers on and they're only laying 3 points. Memphis is horrible on the road and even worse when they play the Clippers. Memphis has lost 5 out of their last 6 games in LA against the Clippers. The Clippers are hot at home winning 11 of their last 12 games and that lost came against their roommate the Lakers. Take the Clippers and start your streak off the right way. 
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#8480
Posted: 5/5/2012 2:52:43 PM
I have an alternative view on the Memphis-LA game. This is a classic case of betting trends vs stats and percentages. The facts are that out of the last 10 games these teams have played head to head they have scored over 185 points 8 times. That's 80%. I don't care who is betting what. I will take 80% over any Buster, Sharp or Wise Guy any day. Go with the Clippers Over if you're betting Totals. 
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#8481
Posted: 5/5/2012 3:04:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smoothd20:

I have an alternative view on the Memphis-LA game. This is a classic case of betting trends vs stats and percentages. The facts are that out of the last 10 games these teams have played head to head they have scored over 185 points 8 times. That's 80%. I don't care who is betting what. I will take 80% over any Buster, Sharp or Wise Guy any day. Go with the Clippers Over if you're betting Totals. 

already on it
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#8482
Posted: 5/5/2012 3:10:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by edwardglennx3:


already on it
Good man. 
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#8483
Posted: 5/5/2012 3:20:00 PM
1. Over185.0  -110
Memphis Grizzlies at LA Clippers
2. (5-Inning) Under3.5  -110
Milwaukee (5-Inning) - (L) R WOLF at
San Fran. (5-Inning) - (L) BUMGARNER
3. LA Clippers -145
Memphis Grizzlies at LA Clippers
4. (2nd Half) Under90.5  -110
Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic (2nd Half)
5. Indiana (2H)-3.0  -110
Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic (2nd Half)
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CZECH_RAZOR
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#8484
Posted: 5/5/2012 3:47:53 PM
So if everyone and their moms are on the clips over why is the line tanking? Maybe Vegas didn't notice that 80% of their games have gone over so far...

Guys look at what percentage of unders are hitting in the playoffs. These teams are more focused on defense in the playoffs. Unders would have been 3-0 yesterday if not for the Boston OT, and according to Pliss this one went under also 
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#8485
Posted: 5/5/2012 3:54:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Hey smoothD yeah I've always checked all of that on Covers.  I look at all the line moves from the books but I think bama was referring to the rule 2 part concerning the busters.  Gotta know who the betting public is on vs just the Covers consensus busters.
Yes, Czech. You get it! Thanks, man. I was referring to the betting percentages and not just the line movements. But if you want line movements, then the SBR Live Odds Page tracks 32 offshore and domestic sportsbooks for free, whereas Covers only tracks 15 offshore and domestics for free. If you want more from Covers, you will have to pay $99 to $199 for their  Covers Experts Odds Tracker and Odds Tracker Plus Premium Packages. The other cool thing about the SBR Live odds page is that, not only do you get the 32 offshore and domestic bookmaker line moves, but they also move in realtime with no refreshing required. Not only that, but it is really cool that on that same page, you get live scores and realtime play-by-play next to the game as it happens with no refreshing ever! I am glad that you did find the information useful. It is good to know that I did not waste my time and effort!
      These Vegasinsider links (VI MLB matchups) (VI NBA matchups) (VI NHL matchups) give you infomation provided by Sportsbook dot ag. It tells you where the line started, where it is currently, and the coolest thing of all is that it tells you the percentages of money placed on the Side, the Moneyline, and the over/ under as provided by Sportsbook. Real money bet by real bettors. If you are only interested in the betting trends, you could just visit this Sportsbook Betting Trends link to view their betting trends. Once there, just click a tab for the sport you want.
     The Fantasy Bet Zone link, provides you with much of the same information that Covers charges big money for ($99- $199 a month!)  in their Odds Tracker packages. The data on FBZ is provided by Sports Insights dot AG (the same as Covers paid package) and tells you the average percentages for what side the Money is coming in on from SIX of the world's leading sportsbooks. You will notice that the pie charts are the same offered by Covers premium.

     Smooth: You really should actually check out these links instead of just dismissing them as just  " more  Vegas odds". You will likely come away impressed. Especially cool is the Live Scores + play-by-play on SBR's Live Odds page found right there alongside the odds from THIRTY-TWO sportsbooks (offshore included). All are realtime updated and free. You do not even need to refresh! Just leave the tab open all day and keep checking back or just hang out and watch the play by play develop. It is a one stop nerve center of info.
     Covers is great and is my favorite site of all, but why limit ourselves to just that? By using information form these others we can compare data to get a more complete picture. Covers provides a lot of great information and their Experts like Lawrence, Chan, Burns, Fargo, etc. etc. are all excellent Cappers. Their picks are well worth the money for those that do not do like to do their own research. Also, I am quite sure the Covers Odds Tracker service is worth every penny of $99 to $199 per month. Long live Covers! Covers is the best source out there!

Good luck $25 Dime Club- Keep on killing it, Smooth, Crush, Plisskin, EG, and Czech! Everyone else, too! Please overlook and forgive this long winded and pointless post! I don't know what got into me!

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#8486
Posted: 5/5/2012 3:55:55 PM
Good luck to you guys no matter who you take. For same reason I like under, I also kinda like Memphis, plus every B is on the clips and there are subtle indicators for Memphis. 

Only have one sharp play so far though and that's the under. 

Good luck 
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#8487
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:06:55 PM
My favorite play of the day and Streak Survivor pick is on San Antonio -5.5

     I have done no research whatsoever and frankly none was needed other than to verify that the Spurs are one hundred percent healthy. The Spurs will absolutely mop the floor with the Utah Jazz tonight because they really want to end this series quickly to rest up for the second round. Neither of the first two games were close and this one will be no different. THe Sours are too deep! Even their bench is ultra-talented. I also do not need to know who is betting what and where the line has been tracking to get this Win tonight. The San Antonio Spurs will be your 2012 NBA Champions! *as long as everyone stays healthy, that is. No injuries. If you don't like the Spurs, then you are going to really hate these playoffs.


            SAN ANTONIO SPURS -5.5

                                     DIAL IT!
                                                                              

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#8488
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:11:41 PM
Hey BAMA,

Just saw that you just posted. Thanks again man and accept the friend request if you want to talk some more. 

I started a thread to devote entirely to developing the system. I started it late last night and was tired so know I left some stuff out but got it going. Anyways thanks again for all of the info. 

One thing I wanted to get your opinion on was the usefulness of the stats provided on betting percentages by sports book on sides totals and ml's. The thing I was thinking was there's no way to differentiate which percentage of these amounts are from sharps vs the public. 

That's why I found the covers consensus data useful, specifically because it's not real money. Could the covers consensus data show us a more honest opinion of who the busters like? I myself click away on the contests, often clicking a side or total that I bet against later. Case in point is Atl yesterday. I took Atl and the over on Covers, and then wound up betting Boston and the under. Incidentally Atl and the over hit, although the under was the right play. But I bet according to a system, whereas most covers busters prob bet what they took on the contest also. 

My point is that I want to know which side the public likes, not just which side a book is taking heavier action on early, because B's tend to bet late, although I do understand how that information is probably more valuable in the long run.  Idk I am still undecided on which is more important. 

Here's why- by tip off, we need to know which side the money is on. But Vegas knows that most of the public money comes in LATE, prob within 15 minutes of the game starting. This is why we often see adjustments before the start of the game. My theory is that these late line moves are often adjusted for the public, and therefore not as trustworthy. But Vegas wants to know which side the public is betting BEFORE they bet it, and they prob have someone checking sites like Covers consensus to see who the public "likes", even if the public hasn't bet it yet. 

Thoughts?
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#8489
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:17:23 PM
I myself tend to like to Spurs, and also tend to like them to win it all. 

The only thing I want to say is this line seems fishy, and it dropped half a point. This alone is enough to disqualify it as a system play, but personally I like it. 

The total is bouncing around a lot, I saw a couple of adjustments up on the total but it kept coming back down, and is currently at 201, lower than the open, in spite of Covers busters being 56% on the over. I need to do my homework on this game from the links you provided, but I think the under might be worth considering, especially if you like SA to play lights out tonight. 

Thoughts?
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#8490
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:22:21 PM
BAMA think about this:

What if you're looking at an UNDER play, god line move etc, like the Clips under, and you check those money stats and the money is 55%/45% on the under?

This would disqualify the pick because of those $ percentages, however what if the money was really 60% on the over (public) until some sharp laid 20k on the under, right before you checked it?

There has to be some measure of usefulness to seeing the consensus data that does not involve real money. If we see the money is 50/50, but Covers busters are 66% on the over, then we know the majority of under money is sharp and it's a good play, even though the money is evened out. 

Does this make sense?
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#8491
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:34:33 PM
*disclaimer:

 my previous opinion stated about late line moves is in the early stages and I am basically thinking out loud. I have actually seen some big adjustments hit that happened right before the start of the game, and fully understand and agree that these could be sharp moves also, not just adjustments for the busters. 

The Truth is they can be both or either, and due to the uncertainty, is why I try to avoid adjustments altogether, instead preferring progressive line moves 
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#8492
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:41:26 PM
The clips total is an interstices line move today. I think I like seeing the line posted at least twice for every price, showing it sat for a while at each price. If I see it goes something like this xxxxxyzzzz I'll wonder what happened to Y? Were they adjusting it straight to Z?

The total did this today, looked like it was adjusted a couple times actually, which I tend to not like, the move was progressive also, and severe, 3 points total, and never went back up. 

This is a system play 100%. Clips under 
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#8493
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:42:37 PM
It gonna go over for sure now that I talked it up  Lol 

Going for W6 and W4 on survivor smooth! Let's ride 
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#8494
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:43:38 PM
I also bet Memphis ml +130
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#8495
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:45:11 PM
     To be honest, I have been a member of Covers for three years, but I have only been "Serious" about picking winners for the last year since I found Smooth's awesome thread and began posting. Before "Serious Streak Survivor Strategies", I must confess that I was just guessing at outcomes. Here, there is a sense of accountability that forces us to pick wisely. If we lose all of the time we will still be accepted here, but I believe this thread makes us better because we want to win. Since I found Smooth's place, I have worked hard over the last year to prove myself worthy of hanging out with these crafty veteran cappers. I now pick instead of just guessing at outcomes. I research and have learned what to look at as far as stats, trends, and last ten meetings history. I only recently started looking at line moves and public betting percentages.

     What I am getting at is that I am still very much a noob to the betting game and will not betting real money betting until I am sure that I will be successful. I play contests to see how I would do. I still lose a lot and am learning the importance of money mangement with the Covers League Contests. Quality is more important than quantity as I have stubbornly come to learn. I now only cherry pick the ones I feel strongly about.

     Czech, I was thinking the same thing. Money is money. So how do we know the difference between square money and sharp money? I have a lot more education to attain before I can even pretend to to tell you the answers you seek. All I know is that the percentages show how much money is coming in on thes sides, moneylines, and overs and unders. They say nothing about what percentages of those percentages are squares or sharps. We do know that Sportsbooks make money consistently. They move lines to get 50 percent of all money on each side, like EdwardGlennx said, so that they make money off of the juice. We do know that if 70%  or more of the money is on one thing to happen and the line keeps moving in favor of the opposite thing happening that this would be a strong indicator that the 70%  money is being bet by squares. We also knw that if the 70% or more money results in the lining moving across all books in favor of the side being heavily bet, then that means that the money is wiseguy money. The danger here is that if you are too late to the party, the value in the bet may already be gone. The key  on those types of plays is to recognize and get your money in early.
      I am confused on a lot of these theories, so you guys know at least as much or likely more than I do about them. I need to reset my internet modem and computer right  now. So I will return later.

     Czech, I accepted your request. Thanks for the add and I will visit your thread. Congrats on your thread and I hope it is successful. Good luck.

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#8496
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:50:54 PM
#8492 was supposed to read:

The clips total is an interesting line move today. I think I usually like seeing the line posted at least twice for every price,
showing it sat for a while at each price. If I see it goes something like this xxxxxyzzzz I'll wonder what happened to Y?
Were they adjusting it straight to Z?

The total did this today, looked like it was adjusted a couple times actually, which I tend to not like, HOWEVER 
the move was progressive also, and severe, 3 points total, and never went back up. 

This is a system play 100%. Clips under 
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#8497
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:53:11 PM
Bama-Yes you're correct about getting info from different sources. I have become a much better capper since you introduced me to http://theinsideslant.com/forum/index.php and other sites. I will definitely check the other sites out as well. 
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#8498
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:54:28 PM
     My favorite thing about the Covers Consensus is that you can see the Public, Top 10%, and Experts percentages on the matchups. Just look for those tabs under the Consensus while viewing that page. The Public would be the squares, I imagine. The top 10% would be the Sharps. I imagine the Covers Experts consensus to be akin to the extreme Wiseguys. They got to be Experts for a reason and that reason is for being the elite pickers for the teams involved in the matchup. If they, the Experts, are heavily stacked on one side, then you'd better believe this play is sharp, in my opinion. I have a long way to go, but this is just my thinking on the topic of Covers Consensus breakdowns.
I believe that it can be an important tool when used properly. The trick is in figuring out how to use it properly! I'll be back later. GL

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#8499
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:00:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smoothd20:

Bama-Yes you're correct about getting info from different sources. I have become a much better capper since you introduced me to http://theinsideslant.com/forum/index.php and other sites. I will definitely check the other sites out as well. 
Thanks, Smooth! You make me a  better capper, as well. Your insight helps me out all of the time. Good luck today, man! Go Clip Joint! lol - I think they will get it done! Later, bro
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#8500
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:18:39 PM
Czech- I can tell you from living in Vegas for 5 years and I'm sure Crush and Plisskin can confirm this. The sportsbooks in Vegas subscribes to a service that tells them what every sportsbook on the strip has for a number. The service also includes the major offshore books and some internet sportsbooks as well. You can't believe the pressure that's on these guys to get the number right incredible pressure. There is also a company that posts the opening number that you see. I forget the name of the company or the guy that does it but that is where the opening numbers usually come from. After that number the books adjust according to what their guy wants to do. 
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