Messages

Forum Index : Streak Survivor : Messages Page 341 of 496 «  339 340 341 342 343   »
Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Serious Streak Survivor Strategies
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8501
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:22:39 PM
Hey BAMA didn't see you in list of friends so resent an invitation. Didn't look like you accepted it before or something glitched
quote
smoothd20
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
smoothd20
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4425
Location: Oregon
#8502
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:28:23 PM
I have to respectfully disagree with the notion that the public is on the Over. If that was the case then the Under wouldn't be -115 at Bovada or the other books. The books have the Under as the favorite because that seems to be what most people are betting if I'm understanding this correctly. This is where reading too much into line movements has it's limitations. The books favor the Under the public seems to favor the Under but Czech thinks the public favors the Over because they usually do. But all of this doesn't  change the fact that these teams usually score more than the posted number. So either the public is ignoring the obvious and going with the books on the Under or the books are trying a double head fake and trying to get people to bet the Under knowing fool well this game should go over based on past history. Just my perception of the situation but in conclusion any system that doesn't take into account the actual history of the matchup wont have long term success. I really believe you have to look at multiple factors and then make your decision based on the information that you have. 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8503
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:28:32 PM
Hey BAMA 

Wanted to point something out to you my friend told me about those stats on covers. The "Experts" are the guys on contests that cap those teams the "best", or highest percentage so far. 

You may hate a certain team and fade them most of the time, and the team can lose those times and you're an "expert". In other words guys can be busters and still be an expert on a given team's side or totals. 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8504
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:34:46 PM
Thanks smoothD for the opinion man. I have a totally different take on it and is prob why m system differs from how you pick your games. 

I see the public Being on the over purely because 57% Covers contests consensus busters were on the over. In spite of this, and the stats you mentioned, that point towards the over, they moved the line down. Way down. 

If they know people are liking the over at 187.5, why would they LOWER it and offer it at a better price? It went down, then more, then more, all the way to 184.5. This is a huge line move and tells me they think it's going under. 

We will see what happens but this is my general theory. Anyways good luck just wanted to add my take on it. 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8505
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:36:50 PM
BAMA 

Go to any matchup and look at those stats and who the experts are on, for instance user xcdh123 is #1 93% on Memphis games. Click on that guy and see how he does on everything else. He may be a total buster man and not know garbage and just be hot on that team for the year. 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8506
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:39:51 PM
Those "expert" stats can be deceiving but really don't mean garbage man for real. Just who's been right on that team in the past. If they're busters they're just as likely to be wrong in the future. 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8507
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:40:38 PM
Clips and over tracking so far lol 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8508
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:47:36 PM
BAMA and smoothD and everyone I have another interesting concept for your consideration. 

Vegas can't move the lines too much simply to balance the money on both sides. Let's use the Clips game as an example. Say 55% likes over, but then 3 wiseguys come in and lay heavy wood on the under, and they sink the line to 184.5. 

Now, all the busters come in and take the over, at 184.5. 

Now, Vegas can get MIDDLED. if the total lands on 186, which coincidentally is where the game is tracking at the moment, then they lose on both sides. 

This is a big reason why I think these moves can be sharp. Vegas is basically tipping their hand and saying oops we fucked up and 187.5 was too high. Now whether 184.5 is also or not, I don't know. Obviously I'd rather have under 187.5 than under 184.5 right now. Unfortunately I have to see the move first in order to take the play. 
quote
smoothd20
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
smoothd20
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4425
Location: Oregon
#8509
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:48:37 PM
Is it me or has the officiating in the Playoffs gone down a few notches. I'm seeing some horrible calls and I don't normally complain about the refs. But this year's officiating is atrocious.
quote
smoothd20
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
smoothd20
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4425
Location: Oregon
#8510
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:05:08 PM
Czech- How's this for a scenario. Now remember these guys that do the numbers whether it's the company that I referred to earlier or one of the books on the strip. These guys are no dummies they know their stuff. Now they put the number artificially high so to attract the Under bettors hence the more juice on the Under. Now that they have sucked these poor saps in. They turn around and lower that number to 184.5 to get the Over money. Vegas doesn't give a dam what number comes in  they just want that juice. As long as it's not one sided and they don't get middled they win. That's their game. My point is sometimes it doesn't matter about what money comes in. They will manipulate the line based on their forecast on how much juice they have based on all outcomes. For example they may have taken in so much money on the Under they say hey we need to bring some Over money in. So now they lower the number and here comes the Over money. These guys know what they're doing. So again don't think that's is all based on Busters, Sharps, and Wise Guys. The Sharpest guys in the room are the sportsbooks. 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8511
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:07:22 PM
Another thing to consider is half time middles. When they lower the lines they are leaving themselves more susceptible to juicy middles if the game tracks over first half. 

Clips game went 96 in the first half, and second half line is 91. 91 is less than half the original total, and if you take the under you're getting under 187 for the game. 

SYSTEM PLAY UNDER 91 SECOND HALF 

2 System Plays today are:

Memphis under 184.5 for the game 
Memphis under 91 second half (187 for the game)
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8512
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:14:00 PM
I understand your viewpoint smoothD thanks for the info. 

Any pick can win or lose man, clips may tear it up second half and I lose both bets today. It's sports. 

Just trying to track how this concept of mine can perform. You asked me originally to give you examples of plays pre-game and so I'm doing that. 

9-6 so far for the week with last 5 in a row coming in. Due for a loss actually. We'll see. 
quote
smoothd20
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
smoothd20
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4425
Location: Oregon
#8513
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:17:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

BAMA and smoothD and everyone I have another interesting concept for your consideration. 

Vegas can't move the lines too much simply to balance the money on both sides. Let's use the Clips game as an example. Say 55% likes over, but then 3 wiseguys come in and lay heavy wood on the under, and they sink the line to 184.5. 

Now, all the busters come in and take the over, at 184.5. 

Now, Vegas can get MIDDLED. if the total lands on 186, which coincidentally is where the game is tracking at the moment, then they lose on both sides. 

This is a big reason why I think these moves can be sharp. Vegas is basically tipping their hand and saying oops we fucked up and 187.5 was too high. Now whether 184.5 is also or not, I don't know. Obviously I'd rather have under 187.5 than under 184.5 right now. Unfortunately I have to see the move first in order to take the play. 
LOL I just saw this post after I posted my previous post. Exactly that's why you have to look at other factors because those movements aren't always based on Sharp plays or Busters just Vegas trying to grab more money.
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8514
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:37:33 PM
Hey guys this is a dumb question but how do you Quote earlier posts?
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8515
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:45:13 PM
Lol np smoothD anyways this total is a sweat and tracking to be close no matter who wins. It's probably gonna middle for real especially since I said that earlier and am on the under. Second half under is tracking fine so far though 
quote
smoothd20
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
smoothd20
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4425
Location: Oregon
#8516
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:49:54 PM
Clippers can't buy a basket!
quote
smoothd20
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
smoothd20
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4425
Location: Oregon
#8517
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:50:47 PM
Czech click the "Quote" button in the lower right hand corner of the post. 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8518
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:52:05 PM
39 points in the 3rd quarter, Memphis game... Sharps   in hard around the bend...
quote
smoothd20
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
smoothd20
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4425
Location: Oregon
#8519
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:52:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Lol np smoothD anyways this total is a sweat and tracking to be close no matter who wins. It's probably gonna middle for real especially since I said that earlier and am on the under. Second half under is tracking fine so far though 
Suddenly an easy Over is going to be a nailbiter. Thanks Clippers.
quote
smoothd20
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
smoothd20
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4425
Location: Oregon
#8520
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:54:27 PM
I don't know about the Sharps riding in hard but Smooth and his gang are coming in on a freaking 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8521
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:54:32 PM
We got 3  riding together today, 2 sharps and a squire, Mem ml and the under and the second half under all riding together...yah yah! Whip them horses!!! 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8522
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:56:34 PM
I see the Mem ml squire is starting to die down the stretch...gotta whip that horse 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8523
Posted: 5/5/2012 6:58:56 PM
Let's go Memphis, yah!  Beat that horse 
quote
CZECH_RAZOR
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
CZECH_RAZOR
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 849
Location: Florida
#8524
Posted: 5/5/2012 7:03:14 PM
Man Bodemeister lost. My buddy dropped some heavy wood on that horse 
quote
smoothd20
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
smoothd20
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4425
Location: Oregon
#8525
Posted: 5/5/2012 7:13:29 PM
It's going to take a miracle for this Under to happen with these brick shooting teams. Clippers go 5 min without a FG and Memphis follows that up with  6 min without FG. Amazing. That's all I can say freaking amazing.
quote
Forum Index : Streak Survivor : Messages Page 341 of 496 «  339 340 341 342 343   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.