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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: I'll give you the holy grail of gambling 1.1 (But......)
PTOTOUR send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#276
Posted: 5/12/2012 7:21:45 PM
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#277
Posted: 12/3/2012 3:37:30 PM
have 1 question on the -1 and -1.5 value (was some discussion first pages)
any1 know the math behind this value?

you get the push when you lose a -1.5 but you win more when you win -1.

dose the push make up for the lost value?

-1 more +EV long term than -1.5?



NHL out luck
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Szejtan [PL]
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#278
Posted: 1/13/2013 6:21:04 PM
bump

these are the rules that we must follow this season

gl to all

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Lippsman
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#279
Posted: 1/13/2013 9:35:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by matreyt:

have 1 question on the -1 and -1.5 value (was some discussion first pages)
any1 know the math behind this value?

you get the push when you lose a -1.5 but you win more when you win -1.

dose the push make up for the lost value?

-1 more +EV long term than -1.5?



NHL out luck

Much more value in taking the -1.  There are tons of 1 goals games, that -1.5 has a very nice payback, but the extra amount of losses does not bode well. 

I will take the -1.5 usually when the -1 line is still over -130
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#280
Posted: 1/14/2013 5:43:18 AM
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#281
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:22:30 PM
Can I be you? Please....
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#282
Posted: 1/15/2013 5:16:57 PM
GREAT ADVISE !  BOL TO YOU  IN 2013 .
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#283
Posted: 1/15/2013 10:00:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Culls17:

Can I be you? Please....

The answer's Hell No! Culls, you can't be Lipps!

But you can click the "dislike" button on 95.45 percent of the other 
'imposter posters' with nothing profitable nor even significant to proffer herein.
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#284
Posted: 1/24/2013 8:19:45 AM
Bump by special request

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#285
Posted: 1/24/2013 8:21:49 AM

Thank you Lipps

Much appreciated  

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Crashdavis565
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#286
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:27:48 PM
bump- thanks
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#287
Posted: 4/29/2013 10:14:22 PM
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#288
Posted: 5/3/2013 9:50:44 PM
sweet split and dbl the roll on the isles tonite
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#289
Posted: 5/3/2013 10:08:33 PM

This was the best write up I have ever read on covers.  Well done, very impressed! 

EXCELLENT STUFF!

Eren in Windsor

 

 

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#290
Posted: 5/3/2013 11:30:07 PM
Didn't know this was buried in the forum. Great read. Thanks for the bump. You know what I've been doing lately to satisfy the need for action? Play the covers league contest. I know it's not any actual cash I'm playing with. But hell there are cash incentives if you can do really well. So lately I have found that has saved my real bankroll from the huge ebbs and flows of my hot/cold streaks. 

Still trying to be disciplined with the money management though. Very tough to do but I've gotten much better over the past few years. Used to wager way to much on games relative to my bankroll. I'm not down to 2-3 percent yet. But it's low enough that God forbid I lost 10-15 in a row, I wouldn't be dry. 
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#291
Posted: 5/3/2013 11:58:35 PM
Ravensfan,

That's great to hear.  Stick to it and great things will happen.  

Here's to you Crash, Hall, Johnny and Eren.

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#292
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:07:07 AM
Awesom read. I def stick to those rules. I hate parlays. I hate betting huge juice unless I loveeee the play. When I'm hot I increase my wager %. When I'm cold I usually take a night off or lower my wagers.


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#293
Posted: 5/30/2013 12:26:15 AM
Correct. The first point made, back in 2007...
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#294
Posted: 5/30/2013 1:36:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:


Much more value in taking the -1.  There are tons of 1 goals games, that -1.5 has a very nice payback, but the extra amount of losses does not bode well. 

I will take the -1.5 usually when the -1 line is still over -130

Hey Lipps can you tell me which book offers the -1? Mine only does 1.5-- thanks!!!

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#295
Posted: 5/30/2013 8:51:16 AM
If I had read your post I definitely wouldn't be playing the way I do now haha. I max wager everything. The max allowed by my bookie is $500 on NHL. However, since mid march to now I'm up a good $6000. It's all luck. This week I'm up $2000 and I think it's time for me to call it quits Saturday. Your post is a good read for people new to gambling like myself haha. Too bad I got to it now.
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Lippsman
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#296
Posted: 5/30/2013 9:37:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GRODT:

Hey Lipps can you tell me which book offers the -1? Mine only does 1.5-- thanks!!!


5dimes offers the -1 line, but you can make it yourself.  PM me and I will email you a spreadsheet that will calculate it for you.

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#297
Posted: 5/30/2013 9:44:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Legomaheggroll :

If I had read your post I definitely wouldn't be playing the way I do now haha. I max wager everything. The max allowed by my bookie is $500 on NHL. However, since mid march to now I'm up a good $6000. It's all luck. This week I'm up $2000 and I think it's time for me to call it quits Saturday. Your post is a good read for people new to gambling like myself haha. Too bad I got to it now.

I think taking your cash and running is a great idea. Maybe throw a couple of hundred on some games that you like.  You are up a good bit and a couple of hundred would be about 2% or so of your bankroll. 

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#298
Posted: 5/30/2013 10:00:25 AM
Dude no kidding. Even when I've been down in some weeks I've clawed back to breaking even. I have one last wager out on the Penguins ML. I think I'll use your advice for the NFL season. Great read and great strategy though.
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#299
Posted: 5/30/2013 3:43:13 PM
I am a convert. After the greatest run of my life, I am reverting to the mean.
I got destroyed yesterday going 2-7 and sweating out the Hawks game like hell as I had it at -210. Although I lost a large sum yesterday, no chasing, just dropping the bets to make it right and hoping it turns.
I am trying to be in the 1% but I do admit, it is quite hard.
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#300
Posted: 5/30/2013 5:00:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

I am a convert. After the greatest run of my life, I am reverting to the mean.
I got destroyed yesterday going 2-7 and sweating out the Hawks game like hell as I had it at -210. Although I lost a large sum yesterday, no chasing, just dropping the bets to make it right and hoping it turns.
I am trying to be in the 1% but I do admit, it is quite hard.

I know you can do it Crash.  Also the nice thing about doing a set percentage is that you take the emotion of having too much money on the line.  That will always make people wager poorly. 

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