T/R Home/Away Power Rankings

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: T/R Home/Away Power Rankings
grecycle99 PM grecycle99
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quote#226
Posted: 8/14/2013 8:20:23 AM

Great Thanks for your work.

Can't wait to try your other systems.

BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#227
Posted: 8/14/2013 7:08:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by grecycle99:

Great Thanks for your work.

Can't wait to try your other systems.


Thanx
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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quote#228
Posted: 8/14/2013 7:53:26 PM
Great Job Buckeye - look forward to next year - I'm going to try to automate all the systems into one spreadsheet for next year
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BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#229
Posted: 8/15/2013 7:46:04 AM
What's really nice is that we have about 4 or 5 really good systems here that next year we don't have to do any backtests or searching for systems.  Just plug in your teams, and collect at the end of the day.

If anyone wants a good bet tracker, here's a link for one I use: 

http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel-worksheet/

I'm going to use it more fully next year, to keep track of the different systems I play, so I know when to up my bets for a loss on a game A etc.
BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#230
Posted: 8/19/2013 8:25:01 AM
Instead of clogging up with another thread, this one doesn't say baseball on the title, I'm just gonna use this one for the time being.

I may have found plays based on TR rankings that last year would have netted 28.1 units.  That's about the best I could find.  It is football, the most wagered sport plus the shortest season, so I'll take 28 units.

That said, this was only from last year, so I'm not confident in it yet.  I am going to go back and do other years but I'm going to skip 2011-12 as that was the lock out season, though come back and do it later on.

It's taking awhile cause I have to plug in numbers manually from 5 different rankings for all 17 weeks.  At least I have the formulas to get the info out of it.

The Monday Night post was a washout.  That was from 2003/4.  2012/3 went 6-10-1.

I do have stats...percentages of the best teaser plays for those that do them.  If you google them, you will see all the same types: Road Favorite teased down to...blah, blah, blah.  I wanted to see for myself.  I have the numbers for the last 10 years.  The best overall in the last 10 years, with at least 20 plays is teasing the Home Favorite from -10.5 to -4.5: 21-5 80.8%.  The best Road tease is Road Favorite -6 to PK: 37-9 80.4%


BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#231
Posted: 8/25/2013 3:31:24 PM
NFL isn't working out for anything on TR, so I'm moving on to NBA, where I have something that's looking good.


ERBATIZ PM ERBATIZ
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Mexico
 
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quote#232
Posted: 8/25/2013 11:48:44 PM
BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#233
Posted: 9/27/2013 9:35:21 PM
I found something with TR that worked for NBA for last year that netted about 40+ units, and am trying something else to add to that.  There were 4 losses and no filter would remove them....one of those "It happens, that's why it's gambling!!" things. 
After I finish that additional part for 2012/13, I will back test them, for at least a couple of years....and if it works....I will start a new thread with it.
I will make a spreadsheet, and will have time to tweak it , as the first plays don't start until a team has played at least 5g on the road or at home...depending on the play.

BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#234
Posted: 9/27/2013 9:48:31 PM
In a nutshell, before any questions come, I'm taking TR rankings...Home or Away (depending on if the team is on a roadtrip or a home stand...the roadtrip plays netted the 40+ units), which are ranked 1-30, 1 being the best, 30 the worst.
During a 3g set (Home or Away), Ranks #1-15 I am chasing for a win, #16-30 I am fading, or chasing a loss).  The filter is that the team must have a similar ATS as what I'm playing.  If I'm playing for a win?  That team's ATS must be above 50% AND have 2 more wins than losses. The opposite for fading losers

Example:
Cleveland is on a 3g road trip.  On the FIRST game for a play, the Cavs rank 16, and has a 13-15 road record.  We are therefore fading Cleveland for 3 games, or chasing a loss.
If the Cavs road record was 13-14 (one game difference), we would not have a play.
BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#235
Posted: 9/27/2013 10:48:06 PM
Okay, done with 2012/13 backtesting:

For Away games/plays, the system went 74-4, +40.96u

For Home game/plays, the system went 89-7, +31.18u

This does not include any games that are in both systems (fade one team/chase the other etc.).  I will look closer at filtering out those losses, but not until after I backtest more years.  The first plays seem to be no earlier than toward the end of November.
BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#236
Posted: 3/19/2014 9:10:35 AM
Bumpity, Bumpity, Bump.

I will be doing a version of this year, on another thread, but just wanna get a discussion going on this one to let you know the plan.

First, last year's version didn't backtest well, so I'm tossing it. We will be, for now, using the 'Overall' rankings.  It backtested the best out of all that I have backtested.
Second, we will be playing only HOME teams.
Third, we will be playing ALL games of a series
Fourth, it won't be a chase, but rather we will use labby lines.

I only backtested the labby for May 2-21 in 2011.  As a whole, playing it straight, during that time frame, using these filters, it went 44-35, -5.17. I was able to clear 11 lines for 22 units using the labby.  So I looked for rankings that had at least a 50% win percentage on my filters.

I will get into how I do the labby on the new thread..I'm still debating how I want to do it.  I don't like placing a 5 unit bet on a -200 favorite, know what I mean?  That's another reason, people hate chases.  One series, with 3 losses...all at -200, is -26 units.

This system doesn't start until the first series starting in May.  I can't make a spreadsheet until after the season starts.  I will make a sheet (or try) so you can easily manage your lines, if you choose to use them.
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
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Ontario
 
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quote#237
Posted: 3/19/2014 10:08:31 AM
If you want to make it on Google, make sure you use the old Sheets, not the new ones. A lot of functions are disabled on the new one.
Let me know if you need help.
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BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#238
Posted: 3/19/2014 2:35:12 PM
Last year I made a Excel spreadsheet that everyone could update on their own and did not need to follow each day. What you are doing i should do also. It would be easier to get the plays on my tablet then writing them down everyday..... The lines don't come out until I'm at work. I'll mess with it. Like you said it would be nice to just unlock one tab.
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Bart_ PM Bart_
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quote#239
Posted: 3/19/2014 4:39:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Last year I made a Excel spreadsheet that everyone could update on their own and did not need to follow each day. What you are doing i should do also. It would be easier to get the plays on my tablet then writing them down everyday..... The lines don't come out until I'm at work. I'll mess with it. Like you said it would be nice to just unlock one tab.

you can lock individual tabs now with the new sheets.
but you cannot view the sheets on the Google Drive app. 
Stake24 PM Stake24
Joined: Apr 2007
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Nevada
 
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quote#240
Posted: 3/19/2014 4:53:04 PM
System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
Joined: Oct 2013
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quote#241
Posted: 3/21/2014 11:09:50 PM
link us when you make the new thread. Still have 6 weeks to go before your system kicks in. Those who are successful prepare way before. 
juniorknot PM juniorknot
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quote#242
Posted: 4/16/2014 11:57:57 AM
Hello now have 2014 spreadsheet  Update??
BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#243
Posted: 4/16/2014 2:31:23 PM
Not yet, but it won't take long to do. There's still a couple of weeks to go. Hopefully, I'll get it done this weekend and start the new thread.
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