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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: T/R Home/Away Power Rankings
BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#126
Posted: 7/5/2013 12:06:41 AM
Tentatively*** the plays for July 5th:

Official
Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
St. Louis Cardinals
Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Rays

Unofficial
Pittsburgh Pirates
Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Cincinnati Reds
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
Boston Red Sox
San Francisco Giants

***Not sure if TR has updated yet, check back tomorrow
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#127
Posted: 7/5/2013 7:33:07 AM
Remove Atlanta and Baltimore from plays

5-Jul
Official
Boston Red Sox
St. Louis Cardinals
Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Rays

Unofficial
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Cincinnati Reds
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
Boston Red Sox
San Francisco Giants

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#128
Posted: 7/5/2013 6:27:07 PM

Kapt,

     Can you post the -1.5 and -2.5 records and unit data on here for today.  I can't access the google site from my location and am interested in how they're doing.

Thanks in advance

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#129
Posted: 7/5/2013 6:33:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chound:

Kapt,

     Can you post the -1.5 and -2.5 records and unit data on here for today.  I can't access the google site from my location and am interested in how they're doing.

Thanks in advance


I stopped doing that way back when I was looking for a filter because I got the numbers wrong on doing the rrls as a chase.  I actually forgot about it until your post.  I have some time, I think I'll go back and see how it's doing. It will take a few days though.
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#130
Posted: 7/6/2013 8:27:01 AM
5-Jul
Official
Boston Red Sox  Won
St. Louis Cardinals  Won
Texas Rangers  Won
Tampa Bay Rays  Won

Unofficial
Pittsburgh Pirates  Won
Washington Nationals  Won
Toronto Blue Jays  Won
Cincinnati Reds  Loss
Tampa Bay Rays  Won
Texas Rangers  Won
Oakland Athletics  Won
New York Mets  Won
St. Louis Cardinals  Won
Arizona Diamondbacks  Won
Boston Red Sox  Won
San Francisco Giants  Loss

Plays for July 6th:
Official: None
Unofficial:

Cinn B
SF B



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#131
Posted: 7/6/2013 8:27:53 AM
Official YTD 15-1 +2.35u (Thread Only)
Official YTD:  82-5, +48.12u
Unofficial YTD 
Unofficial YTD 

Post #91 for the difference in Official/Unofficial

*Based on Covers' closing line

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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literato
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#132
Posted: 7/6/2013 8:59:32 AM

hello buckeyekaptn

I think it is a bug on tabs away,home,ouaway and ouhome the teams are shifted

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#133
Posted: 7/6/2013 9:58:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by literato:

hello buckeyekaptn

I think it is a bug on tabs away,home,ouaway and ouhome the teams are shifted

The website moved the position of the teams, which adjusted the location of the teams on the spreadsheet.  I fixed it.  Download new copy, same version.  Thanx for letting me know

If anyone sees a problem, let me know.  I personally use a different spreadsheet daily.
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#134
Posted: 7/6/2013 11:31:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chound:

Kapt,

     Can you post the -1.5 and -2.5 records and unit data on here for today.  I can't access the google site from my location and am interested in how they're doing.

Thanks in advance


I did this real quick this morning.  This is for Official A bets (YTD) only.  The record is 35-45.  Using +130 as a generic odds line, it looks to be a wash.  I did this really quick, I didn't look at any filters/chase etc.  I use it as a guide along with the data under RRL, and who the pitchers are etc.
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#135
Posted: 7/6/2013 11:56:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

The website moved the position of the teams, which adjusted the location of the teams on the spreadsheet.  I fixed it.  Download new copy, same version.  Thanx for letting me know

If anyone sees a problem, let me know.  I personally use a different spreadsheet daily.

ok thank you. what do you mean by "spreadsheet daily" you've got different games on different days of the week or based on other criteria.
if there is a problem I'll tell you

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#136
Posted: 7/6/2013 12:45:13 PM
I use another spreadsheet each day.  The TR ver 4 that is posted, I don't use.

The one I use has the TR plays and others...plus other stats that I use to decide what plays I wish to wager.  Basically, instead of opening 4 different sheets or so for each different system...or for using the aspects that I like, I combined them into one spreadsheet.  I have tabs made to backtest systems, one that has the pitching matchups for the next week, another to keep track of my plays, etc.

This is why I didn't know about the problem that I just fixed.
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#137
Posted: 7/7/2013 10:09:59 AM
Plays for July 6th:
Official: None
Unofficial:

Cinn Won
SF Won

7/7 NO PLAYS!!!

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#138
Posted: 7/7/2013 10:36:38 AM
  If you have played every play since the start of the thread, you now would be again up in units.  It seemed that a lot of the plays had a slump all at once.  
Next year, I will start the thread in the middle of April, to get some units under our belt before the slump happens.  Before the "slump" happened, the Unofficial system was at 59.32 units on June 11th (playing from Apr 29th), slumping to a low of 20.89 units on June 26th, when Det last lossed a C bet.  Since June 27th (10 days), the Unofficial system has gained 20.32 units.

Official YTD 15-1 +2.35u (Thread Only)
Official YTD:  82-5, +48.12u
Unofficial YTD 79-8 +5.67u  (Thread Only)
Unofficial YTD 155-14 +56.51u

Post #91 for the difference in Official/Unofficial

*Based on Covers' closing line

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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#139
Posted: 7/7/2013 5:31:51 PM
Okay, I just finish back checking the -1.5rl on each play.  Now, this is for the unofficial system, no filters at all.  Every play -1.5, if the play is a dog, go reverse line to -1.5, NOT +1.5.

Plays that will stop with the ML plays, even if the RL plays do not win. 
(Example, Cle loses ML and RL on game A, play both on game B.  Game B Cle wins 6-5, ML wins, RL loses, do not continue with RL on game C).  
Anyway, 115-64, -(58.97)units....since Apr 29th, up to July 4th.

RL plays that do not stop with the ML wins, when the RL plays lose. 
(Example, Cle loses ML and RL on game A, play both on game B.  Game B Cle wins 6-5, ML wins, RL loses, RL play continue onto game C).  

Before I started the thread, RL plays were at 82-16, +32.08, since then, overall the RL plays are 135-39, -(41.31)units....or the plays I have posted are 53-23, -(73.39) units.

Soooooo, I'm gonna go on a limb and say not to play the RL on every play!!!.  I will check the Official plays, maybe it will weed out the losses and strengthen the wins.
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#140
Posted: 7/8/2013 6:48:40 AM
8-Jul
Official
Atlanta
Tampa Bay
Cincinnati
Boston

Unofficial
Atlanta
Tampa Bay
Cincinnati
Arizona
Boston
San Diego


Official YTD 15-1 +2.35u (Thread Only)
Official YTD:  82-5, +48.12u
Unofficial YTD 79-8 +5.67u (Thread Only)
Unofficial YTD 155-14 +56.51u

Post #91 for the difference in Official/Unofficial

*Based on Covers' closing line

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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#141
Posted: 7/9/2013 6:50:41 AM
8-Jul
Official
Atlanta Win
Tampa Bay Win
Cincinnati Loss
Boston Loss

Unofficial
Atlanta Win
Tampa Bay Win
Cincinnati Loss
Arizona Loss
Boston Loss
San Diego Loss

Jul 9
Official
Det A
Cin B
Bos B

Unofficial
Det A
Cin B
Az B
Bos B
Sd B

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#142
Posted: 7/9/2013 7:00:03 AM
Bos is a 4 game series, and have a horrible pitching matchup today.  I'm avoiding it.  They have a better one tomorrow, and an excellent one on game 4.  However, for bookkeeping, today is still game B.
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#143
Posted: 7/9/2013 9:56:53 PM
I just went through the Official plays with the -1.5rl.  Both type of plays as in post #139 are in the negative and as in the above post, don't play every play -1.5.  Use the RRL tab to help you make a decision in making a rl play.  For example, St Louis, 81.1% of their wins are by 2 or more points.
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#144
Posted: 7/10/2013 6:53:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Bos is a 4 game series, and have a horrible pitching matchup today.  I'm avoiding it.  They have a better one tomorrow, and an excellent one on game 4.  However, for bookkeeping, today is still game B.
So Boston wins anyway!!

Jul 9
Official
Det Loss
Cin Loss
Bos Win

Unofficial
Det Loss
Cin Loss
Az Loss
Bos Win
Sd Win

Plays for 7/10
Official
Det B
Cin C

Unofficial
Det B
Cin C
Az C
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#145
Posted: 7/11/2013 6:37:00 AM
Plays for 7/10
Official
Det Win
Cin Win

Unofficial
Det Win
Cin Win
Az Loss
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#146
Posted: 7/11/2013 6:40:51 AM
Plays for 11-Jul
Official
St Louis

Unofficial
St Louis
Atlanta
Arizona
San Diego

These are all A plays

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#147
Posted: 7/12/2013 6:45:01 AM
Plays for 11-Jul
Official
St Louis loss

Unofficial
St Louis  loss
Atlanta  won
Arizona  won
San Diego  loss

Plays for 12-Jul
Official
St Louis B
Tampa Bay

Unofficial
St Louis  B
San Diego  B
Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
Philadelphia
Washington
LA Angels
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#148
Posted: 7/12/2013 2:09:06 PM
Through July 10th:

Official YTD  (Thread Only) 20-1 7.81u
Official YTD:  87-5 53.58u
Unofficial YTD  (Thread Only) 85-9 3.34u
Unofficial YTD 161-15 54.18u

Post #91 for the difference in Official/Unofficial

*Based on Covers' closing line

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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#149
Posted: 7/12/2013 2:21:21 PM
When I get time, I'm going to go back and check the first month of the season, and see how it fares.  The YTD is only from April 29th.  Over the offseason, I will fully backtest this as far as TR has the numbers for or 10 years, whatever is smaller.
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#150
Posted: 7/12/2013 6:36:25 PM
goodwork buckeye
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