Official (?) RPI 2013 system

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Official (?) RPI 2013 system
googotts PM googotts
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quote#451
Posted: 7/11/2013 1:21:01 PM
What about cards?
BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#452
Posted: 7/11/2013 1:33:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by googotts:

What about cards?
Difference of Cards and Cubs is only 37
NoSoLucky PM NoSoLucky
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quote#453
Posted: 7/11/2013 6:02:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Difference of Cards and Cubs is only 37


Yes and I believe even if it was a diff of 50, the Cubs have been playing much better as of late which if memory serves makes it a no bet anyway.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#454
Posted: 7/11/2013 6:27:08 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:



Yes and I believe even if it was a diff of 50, the Cubs have been playing much better as of late which if memory serves makes it a no bet anyway.

If the Cards would have qualified based on RPI difference, it would have been a play. STL 7-3 in last 10, Cubs 6-4. STL has also won 5 in a row.

NoSoLucky PM NoSoLucky
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quote#455
Posted: 7/11/2013 11:46:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

If the Cards would have qualified based on RPI difference, it would have been a play. STL 7-3 in last 10, Cubs 6-4. STL has also won 5 in a row.



Ya, the one thing I don't like about this system is interpreting the rule about the lower RPI playing significantly better baseball over the "last week or so."

I think of the Cubs more as being 9-5 with 3 of those losses being 1 run games. Much better than what they were. Plus the Cubs are just weird. And they won 3-0 tonight vs STL.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#456
Posted: 7/12/2013 12:12:06 PM

Friday 7/12 plays:

We have a couple plays for today.

NYY (43 pt dif/Home)

Pitt (45 pt dif/Home)

TB (56 pt dif/Home)

Record: 68-4

A: 46-26

B: 14-12

C: 8-4

bruin95 PM bruin95
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quote#457
Posted: 7/13/2013 1:12:35 AM
Tampa Bay -320, and an A game loss.  WOW!
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#458
Posted: 7/13/2013 1:31:41 AM

Friday 7/12 results:

TB loses on A game, B game Sat

NYY and Pitt win on the A game.

Record: 70-4

A: 48-27

B: 14-12

C: 8-4

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#459
Posted: 7/13/2013 1:39:26 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bruin95:

Tampa Bay -320, and an A game loss.  WOW!

Yeah that was brutal. I personally went for 1/2 a unit on the RL. Line will be around -240 Sat.

NoSoLucky PM NoSoLucky
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quote#460
Posted: 7/13/2013 7:28:59 AM
Does anyone know how this system performs on the RL exclusively? The nature of this system will produce too many -220 or worse MLs.
Bart_ PM Bart_
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quote#461
Posted: 7/13/2013 10:48:42 AM
There was a guy named Sam who was tracking RL -1.5 for this system. Not sure if he's still keeping it up. His Google Sheet was last updated in late June. 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#462
Posted: 7/14/2013 2:16:52 AM

Saturday 7/13 results:

TB wins on the B game. 75 series is a LOT before the break.

I hope everyone has a good little break. We'll pick this up after the break!

Record: 71-4

A: 48-27

B: 15-12

C: 8-4

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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quote#463
Posted: 7/14/2013 11:25:11 AM
DanRules - have you been keeping an eye on the filters? Are the large amount of plays due to using a 3 game threshold instead of 4 - just wondering why so many plays this year - and along with that way more C game losses
Posted using a mobile device.
BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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quote#464
Posted: 7/14/2013 12:25:08 PM
Don't forget to change the filter to 42/35 A/H
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#465
Posted: 7/14/2013 4:49:52 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

DanRules - have you been keeping an eye on the filters? Are the large amount of plays due to using a 3 game threshold instead of 4 - just wondering why so many plays this year - and along with that way more C game losses

There have only been 4 plays that had the 3 game spread, all in early May. We suffered a loss on the Bos/Tex series that started 5/3. Bos was a V69. We won on the A game in the other 3 series - 5/3 on KC at home vs ChiSox, 5/6 on AZ at LAD and 5/9 on AZ at home vs Philly.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#466
Posted: 7/15/2013 2:51:14 PM

For Friday after the all-star break we will have 2 plays.

Atlanta (42 diff @ ChiSox)

STL (47 diff, home vs SD)

Remember we have new filters of  42 Away and 35 Home.

NoSoLucky PM NoSoLucky
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quote#467
Posted: 7/15/2013 6:00:38 PM
I'm thinking about ditching ATL and doubling up on STL. After a loss they are 77.8% likely to win and they are 62.8% likely to win at home every time. I would chase them 4 easily.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#468
Posted: 7/15/2013 7:09:32 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

I'm thinking about ditching ATL and doubling up on STL. After a loss they are 77.8% likely to win and they are 62.8% likely to win at home every time. I would chase them 4 easily.

Atlanta barely qualifies as it is. I'm going to wait to see if their entire OF is still injured or not. The Sox qualify as one of the temas I'm betting against post ASB so I'll be playing that regardless, but maybe less than my normal amount. We'll see.

GregTek PM GregTek
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quote#469
Posted: 7/16/2013 2:31:13 PM
Dan  - do you happen to have this years YTD or +/- units record? cuz I've been changing my units and don't have the full stats butt I know I'm up for a few units - just curious what's the official record...
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#470
Posted: 7/16/2013 4:19:51 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by GregTek:

Dan  - do you happen to have this years YTD or +/- units record? cuz I've been changing my units and don't have the full stats butt I know I'm up for a few units - just curious what's the official record...

I've done the same thing. If you bet each series to win 1 unit and bet less than 1 unit when a team was an underdog (x to win 1 unit) the losses would be 40.41 units, so overall you'd be up 30.59 units based on 71 wins.

There will be some variances based on what lines you get compared to mine, rounding or if you bet 1 unit to win more than 1 on the underdogs. The Boston series was all underdogs so instead of losing 7 on that, I lost a little under 5.

I'm very happy that we are still at a decent gain even with 4 losses. I'm not liking that 16% have gone to a C game.

 

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#471
Posted: 7/19/2013 11:53:59 AM

Today's plays are Atlanta and STL.

Record: 71-4

A: 48-27

B: 15-12

C: 8-4

 

GregTek PM GregTek
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quote#472
Posted: 7/19/2013 2:41:56 PM
lets get em - bol
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fulkgl PM fulkgl
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quote#473
Posted: 7/19/2013 11:40:06 PM
I have created a Google doc spreadsheet for the RPI MLB system. I've added the 2013 plays to date. I've also started to add the 2012 plays. Start of the 2012 year up to the all star break. I think the spreadsheet should be publicly visible. I'll add more 2012 plays and maybe get back to 2011.

If this spreadsheet link doesn't work, let me know. I'll try to correct the it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvefeUqszdq1dEdkUDE3UHlkdWZmTFJvdE45LXhDMkE&usp=sharing

A few note about the RPI system 2012 vs 2013.

1. In 2012 the forum started on April 30. They lost 2 series right from the start. So they said, let's start over with the first series of May. I think this is fraudulent. If you publish an "official" play, then it needs to count. No mulligans. I've included the now officially deleted plays from 2012. Also, the forum from 2012 is a pain to follow. Far too much bickering about things other than the RPI system. It was difficult to sort out. Also, they made at least one error, which I have corrected. IMHO, the 2013 forum is much easier to following. Thx.

2. For me there is one key measure above all else to a system's success: ROI. 2012 up to all star break is 6.24% 2013 is 10.46%. I usually consider 10% the cut off point for blindly following a system. Anything under 10% is too risky to follow without additional handicapping. Right now 2013 RPI is right at that 10% cut off point. I have followed the RPI system in prior years and I think 2012 was a bad year. Years prior to 2012 did much better.

3. Big difference between 2012 and 2013 plays. A lot more in 2013 that in 2012. 2012 first half had 79 games (45 series), 2013 had 114 (75 series).

4.
game 1 2012 WL=18-27 2013 WL=48-27
game 2 2012 WL=20-7 2013 WL=15-12
game 3 2012 WL=4-3 2013 WL=8-4
In 2012 game 2 was a huge success. In 2013 it looks like game 1.

5. 2012 road vs home plays, 16v 26h.
2013 road vs home plays, 28v 37h.
4 games series with extended plays 2012 VH=2-1 2013 VH=5-5.

6. 2012 avg play -141, 2013 avg play -150.


Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#474
Posted: 7/20/2013 2:20:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fulkgl:

I have created a Google doc spreadsheet for the RPI MLB system. I've added the 2013 plays to date. I've also started to add the 2012 plays. Start of the 2012 year up to the all star break. I think the spreadsheet should be publicly visible. I'll add more 2012 plays and maybe get back to 2011.

If this spreadsheet link doesn't work, let me know. I'll try to correct the it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvefeUqszdq1dEdkUDE3UHlkdWZmTFJvdE45LXhDMkE&usp=sharing

A few note about the RPI system 2012 vs 2013.

1. In 2012 the forum started on April 30. They lost 2 series right from the start. So they said, let's start over with the first series of May. I think this is fraudulent. If you publish an "official" play, then it needs to count. No mulligans. I've included the now officially deleted plays from 2012. Also, the forum from 2012 is a pain to follow. Far too much bickering about things other than the RPI system. It was difficult to sort out. Also, they made at least one error, which I have corrected. IMHO, the 2013 forum is much easier to following. Thx.

2. For me there is one key measure above all else to a system's success: ROI. 2012 up to all star break is 6.24% 2013 is 10.46%. I usually consider 10% the cut off point for blindly following a system. Anything under 10% is too risky to follow without additional handicapping. Right now 2013 RPI is right at that 10% cut off point. I have followed the RPI system in prior years and I think 2012 was a bad year. Years prior to 2012 did much better.

3. Big difference between 2012 and 2013 plays. A lot more in 2013 that in 2012. 2012 first half had 79 games (45 series), 2013 had 114 (75 series).

4.
game 1 2012 WL=18-27 2013 WL=48-27
game 2 2012 WL=20-7 2013 WL=15-12
game 3 2012 WL=4-3 2013 WL=8-4
In 2012 game 2 was a huge success. In 2013 it looks like game 1.

5. 2012 road vs home plays, 16v 26h.
2013 road vs home plays, 28v 37h.
4 games series with extended plays 2012 VH=2-1 2013 VH=5-5.

6. 2012 avg play -141, 2013 avg play -150.


Wow, that is some fine work my man. Thanks for posting this. I will check out the spreadsheet tomorrow when all the rum from the Red Rock is out of my system.

 

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#475
Posted: 7/20/2013 2:21:45 AM

Ok, 2 A game winner tonight.

ATL and STL both win on the A game. We'll pick this up Monday.

Record: 73-4

A: 50-27

B: 15-12

C: 8-4

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