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Author: [College Football] Topic: Week 6 Plays YTD: 21-16
ryan8186 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ryan8186
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#1
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:06:47 AM
Season: 21-16
Last Week: 5-3
Best Bets: 4-0

Had a pretty good season so far, hopefully I can keep it rolling this weekend.  I'm really liking one game in particular this weekend and you will see below.

Ark State -2
- FIU's QB being out is part of the reason I'm taking Ark State here, but the other reason is the players for ASU have now had time to buy into Malzahn's system and I'm expecting the senior qb to have a field day against FIU.  

Penn State -2.5
- This team has finally starting rolling offensively as everyone is buying into O'brien's system.  This could be scary because the Penn State defense is legit.  I don't really think NW has been tested to date and let's be honest nobody had NW being 5-0.  They are overachieving and this weekend will bring them back to reality.

LSU -2.5
- I know this has been a highly debated game this week and I'm making a prediction that Mettenberger will have his best game of the year so far.  Despite what people are saying about LSU of late, they still have the 2nd best defense in the SEC and I think it is going to be really hard for UF to move the ball.  I think LSU is tired of hearing they are not as good as everyone thought they are and they will come with something to prove in this game.  This should be a great game to watch and low scoring LSU 19 UF 16.

Auburn -9.5
- I can't believe I just typed that, but there are a lot of positives for Auburn to take from the LSU game.  They are coming off a bye week and this should help Frazier's development as a QB.  And let's not kid ourselves, backing John L. Smith at the present moment is like throwing your money in a dumpster and lighting it on fire!

UL-Lafayette -27 (Best Bet)
- The only thing I really need to say is Tulane is averaging 5 rushing yards per game!!! And that is on 95 carries.  This stat just amazes me!  Not to mention Tulane may be without their QB on the road.  This smells like an all out behind kicking.

Miss State -10 Game of the Year*****
- I follow both teams very closely, since I live in Lexington and went to Miss State.  UK is in desperation mode at the moment lifting the redshirt off of Patrick Towles to play qb.  He won't start, but they will implement a 2 qb system.  I was not impressed with Whitlow last week as they only put up 250 yards of offense.  What a lot of people dont understand about the 1st half of the South Carolina game is USC got stuffed on the goal line on a 4 and 1 and UK also blocked a punt.  There will not be much of a home field advantage this weekend as most fans have had enough and will be at opening day of Keeneland (which is bigger than football and basketball in Lexington).  

With that being said, Miss State is coming off a bye week in which Tyler Russell has not looked as crisp as he was in the first two games.  I'm expected a much better game from him this week as well as for the State rushing game to attack the 2nd worst rushing defense in the SEC.    On the defensive side of the ball Miss State leads the nation in turnover margin and is 2nd in the nation in interceptions.  Their secondary is lead by a first round draft pick in Banks and Slay will likely go in the early rounds as well.  This is very important because UK is going to play two true freshmen qb's this weekend and all the coaches have said they are having to "dumb down" the playbook and make it more simple.  These D Backs will eat up simple!  

So there you have it.  I'm sure some will call this a huge homer play, but I know these two teams better than any and I really feel like this is a great spot for MSU to dominate.

Would welcome all feedback and am happy to elaborate on any of the picks.  GL to everyone this weekend.


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ryan8186 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ryan8186
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#2
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:39:17 AM
I have not locked in UL-Lafayette or Auburn as I'm hoping for a better number.  Will let you know what I close it at.
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ryan8186 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ryan8186
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#3
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:52:27 AM
Another tough crowd today....
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ryan8186
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#4
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:25:59 PM
WOW!  Auburn down to 8...keep dropping!
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Laroja
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#5
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:31:41 PM
I agree with Miss State, although I do worry about them scoring since they have had games when they struggle big time scoring against really bad competition.
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ryan8186
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#6
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:36:26 PM
That is understandable; however, in all of those games, they were playing the 2's and 3's to get them experience.  Now that they are in the meat of their schedule that will change.  I think this is a big statement game for MSU going into UT next week!
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ryan8186
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#7
Posted: 10/4/2012 2:31:02 PM
I went ahead and locked in Auburn at -8.  Still waiting on ULL to drop before I lock that one in.  The rest mention in my post are locked in.  
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#8
Posted: 10/5/2012 8:59:48 AM
Ark State     Let's keep it going! 1-0
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#9
Posted: 10/5/2012 9:03:55 AM
Nice write ups!!
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ryan8186 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ryan8186
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#10
Posted: 10/5/2012 9:07:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sage1957:

Nice write ups!!

Thanks Sage!  
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ryan8186 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ryan8186
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#11
Posted: 10/6/2012 8:43:18 AM
Locked in Auburn at -7 and ULL at 27.  Bought a half point in both.

Hit on Utah State last night, but didnt post it.

GL
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#12
Posted: 10/6/2012 4:04:57 PM

GOOD WEEK SO FAR BUDDY !!  LET'S GO TIGERS

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ryan8186 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ryan8186
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#13
Posted: 10/6/2012 4:38:56 PM
Thanks J!  Been great week so far.  3-1 on the day and hit my game of the year!

I have a huge parlay with nothing but ULL left!  Geaux Cajuns and Tigers!
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BiloxiJim send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#14
Posted: 10/7/2012 10:50:30 AM

Ryan,

Enjoy all of your analysis.

Was thinking the same thing on MS St with Kentucky, but wanted to see your thoughts before I pulled the trigger.  I expected more of a blowout, but I'm happy with the the cover.

Thanks

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ryan8186 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ryan8186
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#15
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:19:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BiloxiJim:

Ryan,

Enjoy all of your analysis.

Was thinking the same thing on MS St with Kentucky, but wanted to see your thoughts before I pulled the trigger.  I expected more of a blowout, but I'm happy with the the cover.

Thanks


Thanks Jim.  I also expected more separation from MSU, but UK got desperate and kicked an onside kick and Mullen got really conservative with the play calling after that.  But hey....a win is a win!!

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ryan8186 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ryan8186
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#16
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:23:22 PM
Ark State  
Penn State
Miss State
UL-Lafayette
LSU
Auburn

HUGE weekend going 4-2 while hitting my game of the year and best bet.  Bringing my "Best Bet" record to 6-0.  

New Season record is 25-18!
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