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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Monday.. 0-0 Sunday.. 44-27 YTD (62%)
capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
capperintuition
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#1
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:00:21 AM

Took a day off yesterday, due to tight lines.  My scoring table went 3-3 on the day.

Monday's first play is:

Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

Projected score: T-Wolves 96 Magic 94

That's a 7.5-ATS edge for the T-Wolves

Unit Split: 90% spread and 10% ML

Minnesota travels well; they are my #10 road team. On the other hand the Magic struggle at home, they are my #16 home team.  Part of the reason for poor home performance is disinterested fans that may be off-put by the rift that Dwight is causing in this Magic organization.

The T-Wolves hold a big advantage at PG and Love can contest Howard for rebounds, that is what will make the difference for the T-Wolves.

That's enough for the speculative write-up.. in reality all of my plays are based on market value and quantitative analysis, not match-ups and stuff I think COULD happen. I know the NBA like the back of my hand, but it’s all perception and bias.  You need cold hard statistics and market recognition to cap the NBA well.  We are playing against the logical perception that public plays [and write-ups] are based on.

I do believe in trends, for the simple fact that all ATS trends always progressing/regressing to a mean, because that is how spreads are designed. The Magic hold a slight trend advantage, so i won't post them here because I do not want to confuse anyone as to who the play is on.

I am going to monitor the line a bit more for laying on this game.. most places are still at +5.5 so I am not worried about it ticking the wrong direction.

I have 3 more prospective plays, they are sitting right on the bubble so I will have to see what kind of line moves we get.

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#2
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:15:52 AM

Minnesota  

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baldguy_421
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#3
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:19:44 AM
thoughts on the 76ers game?
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capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:20:19 AM
Whoa.. that's unreadable.. need to re-post and try to fix it.  Covers need a "preview post" function.  MS Word must have effed it all up.
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capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:42:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by baldguy_421:

thoughts on the 76ers game?

I gave the Sixers a 1.5-point ATS advantage.. All the Bobcats lines are inflated at this point, so you can be sure that you aren't getting value on the line.  However,  they are a terrible team so a blowout is always likely.
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#6
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:42:47 AM

Took a day off yesterday, due to tight lines.  My scoring table went 3-3 on the day.


Monday's first play is:


Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

Projected score: T-Wolves 96 Magic 94

That's a 7.5-ATS edge for the T-Wolves

Unit Split: 90% spread and 10% ML


Minnesota travels well; they are my #10 road team. On the other hand the Magic struggle at home, they are my #16 home team.  Part of the reason for poor home performance is disinterested fans that may be off-put by the rift that Dwight is causing in this Magic organization.


The T-Wolves hold a big advantage at PG and Love can contest Howard for rebounds, that is what will make the difference for the T-Wolves.


That's enough for the speculative write-up.. in reality all of my plays are based on market value and quantitative analysis, not match-ups and stuff I think COULD happen. I know the NBA like the back of my hand, but it’s all perception and bias.  You need cold hard statistics and market recognition to cap the NBA well.  We are playing against the logical perception that public plays [and write-ups] are based on.


I do believe in trends, for the simple fact that all ATS trends always progressing/regressing to a mean, because that is how spreads are designed. The Magic hold a slight trend advantage, so i won't post them here because I do not want to confuse anyone as to who the play is on.


I am going to monitor the line a bit more for laying on this game.. most places are still at +5.5 so I am not worried about it ticking the wrong direction.


I have 3 more prospective plays, they are sitting right on the bubble so I will have to see what kind of line moves we get.

quote
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#7
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:43:34 AM
Ok, I am going to re-post the better formatted version in a new thread.. sorry guys.
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alecboyh
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#8
Posted: 2/13/2012 11:57:31 AM
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stevenp
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#9
Posted: 2/13/2012 12:32:57 PM
i'm intrigued by your market/trend analysis.  Did you like chicago or boston yesterday.  I assume the market/trend analysis favored chicago?  and i assume market/trend analysis favored houston as well?   please reply.  i mean that with all due respect.  i can't get a handle on this season.
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#10
Posted: 2/13/2012 1:09:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stevenp:

i'm intrigued by your market/trend analysis.  Did you like chicago or boston yesterday.  I assume the market/trend analysis favored chicago?  and i assume market/trend analysis favored houston as well?   please reply.  i mean that with all due respect.  i can't get a handle on this season.


The trend and market edges are different, as you probably know.  Yesterday Boston and Golden State both held the trend advantage over Chicago and Houston.  Which basically means that BOS and GS were more "due" for a cover than their counterparts.  That is all based on regression of the ATS figures to a mean.

However, Boston and Houston held the market advantage, and Derrick Rose's scratch increased Chicago's market value.  I find market value my evaluating each teams intrinsic value based on nothing but unbiased statistics.  The difference between the spread and my intrinsic value awarded to each team, is public perception and betting percentages.

So, at the end of the day, Chicago and Houston held slight edges yesterday, due to higher market value discrepancies than than Boston and Golden State trend discrepancies. However, neither team held enough of an edge to elicit a play.
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#11
Posted: 2/13/2012 1:11:41 PM
let's get that win today..on the wolves myself..gl 
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#12
Posted: 2/13/2012 1:25:47 PM
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SportsFreak69
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#13
Posted: 2/13/2012 1:54:45 PM
Best of Luck 
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#14
Posted: 2/13/2012 3:14:57 PM

BOL!!

With you on Minnesota

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#15
Posted: 2/13/2012 4:17:18 PM
Question for you - it seems that PHX has a 6 point edge, not 4.  You have them winning by 3 as 3 point dogs.........is that not a 6 point edge??

Thanks for sharing and BOL tonight.
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capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#16
Posted: 2/13/2012 4:53:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigWaveDave:

Question for you - it seems that PHX has a 6 point edge, not 4.  You have them winning by 3 as 3 point dogs.........is that not a 6 point edge??

Thanks for sharing and BOL tonight.


You are correct.. I had forgotten to adjust the raw power rankings into "game points."  The Suns still have an edge of 4-points, I just had to adjust the power ranking into a projected score.  It is PHO 101 GS 100.. I hadn't adjust the LAC/DAL score yet either, it is actually LAC 94 DAL 95.  Thanks for noticing that error, appreciate it.
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#17
Posted: 2/13/2012 9:43:27 PM
0-1 night.  Too many turnovers and missed shots for the T-Wolves.  Glad we only went with one play tonight.  Looks like it's going to be a really rough night for a lot of people in the NBA, with Utah getting blown out and Philly narrowly missing.
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