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Author: [College Football] Topic: My Early 3 Bowl Games to get on now.
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#76
Posted: 12/14/2012 6:56:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CapPRO:

Which is it a "BLOWOUT" or a "great game"? I agree with pretty much everything your saying here. I think it will be a great game. So great that I wouldn't put much money on it and if I was I would take the points.

I really don't understand you point with they had 6 turn overs in the ol miss game... What makes you think they won't turn the ball over against OU? Was it that great ol miss D that caused those? Is the ol miss D better than OUs? Didn't Texas put up like 60 on them?

Cap,

This is the last time I will address you because first of all you are a gigantic homer. You just said as an OU fan you wish KK would get the Tech job because you hoped it wout hurt A&M ability to run plays. Talking to a homer is like talking to a wall AKA BigUnit. Just look at his ridiculous posts above especially the latest one. Like I recently said if you pick against peoples teams they take it personally. If I lose I lose its not like I am calling OU a bad team. I just think for multiple reason that A&M will cover. It will be a great game because of who is playing OU/Texas A&M this will EASILY be the 2nd biggest bowl ticket next to the NC game because of who is playing and where its being played. If you want to start picking out games where OU struggled dont get me started. How about the OSU/WV games? Does Texas A&M normally turn it over 6 times?? Will the game be at Ole Miss?? No and No. Who cares what Texas did? Comparing one game out of the entire season is so retarded is so many ways. Texas A&M's worst game that they played was on the road in the SEC where they turned it over 6 times and STILL WON. You are making a case against yourself not for yourself. If you like OU bet OU I DONT CARE. I am on A&M PERIOD. If I lose it will be my first GOW loss of the year I will be 6-1. I don't think I will lose though. I get it you like OU and you have a different opinion nothing you say will change my pick. Sorry bud your team is going down.

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#77
Posted: 12/14/2012 6:57:29 PM
If it makes you feel better A&M is not my top play of the bowl season. I will post it this weekend.
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#78
Posted: 12/14/2012 8:50:15 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by abizzo24]

disagree with you on ND.  2 biggest reasons are:

- i think the time off really benefits bama, they will be fresh and ND's offense is going to stuggle against them and Saban is great at game planning. Bama wasn't as good down the stretch but that is to be expected playing in the best conferenece in college football. now they will have a chance to lick their wounds and go up against a pretty average offense
- ND has had a great season, but remember, they struggled to beat Purdue, BYU, USC (without barkley) and Pitt.   All pretty average teams.  Now they go up against a fresh alabama team that is used to this stage.   ND is going up in class big time here.  oh, and let me ask you the last time ND won a big bowl game...?  i think its been 20 years.  


So tired the Nick Saben Bullshit!!!!! saben is not going to be on the field playing!!!! F**K Nick Saben!!!! ND WINS!!!!!!
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#79
Posted: 12/15/2012 8:17:58 PM
Nevada 

I would call myself a "gigantic" homer.  Lol. But yes I'm a OU fan. I don't bet like a homer. I do know the team very well. I have won every time I have beat for and against OU except the K State game. I wasn't expecting Jone a sr QB to play like a freshman.  

I honestly agree with everyone of your pics except this one, but I got ND at +10 and Oregon at -9. Its mainly because you said "blowout". I think it will be a one score difference. I think OUs D will play better. Main reason is their best player (Jefferson) will finally be healthy since the First half of the Baylor game.  After he was hurt the D took a huge dip in the run game. The fact that they see ol Jonney Football on tv every day can't hurt motivation either. 

I can assure you I won't lose a bet on this game because I'm going to do like I did for Texas game, the only game I didn't play and just hope they play lights out.  I just feel its to close to call. 


Just wondering, your obviously a college football fan, who's your team?  Best of luck on all your plays but this one!  
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Posted: 12/15/2012 9:14:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CapPRO:

Nevada 

I would call myself a "gigantic" homer.  Lol. But yes I'm a OU fan. I don't bet like a homer. I do know the team very well. I have won every time I have beat for and against OU except the K State game. I wasn't expecting Jone a sr QB to play like a freshman.  

I honestly agree with everyone of your pics except this one, but I got ND at +10 and Oregon at -9. Its mainly because you said "blowout". I think it will be a one score difference. I think OUs D will play better. Main reason is their best player (Jefferson) will finally be healthy since the First half of the Baylor game.  After he was hurt the D took a huge dip in the run game. The fact that they see ol Jonney Football on tv every day can't hurt motivation either. 

I can assure you I won't lose a bet on this game because I'm going to do like I did for Texas game, the only game I didn't play and just hope they play lights out.  I just feel its to close to call. 


Just wondering, your obviously a college football fan, who's your team?  Best of luck on all your plays but this one!  

I know you are a gigantic homer it shows. You keep posting about one game that I have picked because its against your team. If you disagree great go for it. The problem with homers is two fold they think there team is always better than they are and they always are harder on their players than they should be. Landry Jones is a prime example and you just proved it. Jones didn't play like a freshman in that game. He kept them in that game because OU always abandons the running game. OU lost that game because of 2 turnovers. The fumble by Jones that was TD for Kstate and the fumble by Bell. Jones had almost 300 yards passing and the interception wasn't that big of a deal. For you to say he played like a freshman is ridiculous. Every game I bet on I know a ton about the teams. There isn't anything that you know about a team that I don't know. I have been following A&M and Manziel since the FL game and know A&M extremely well. Jefferson being fully healthy makes what difference. It's not like he ever missed a game or anything. You act like he is just coming back. He is a great player but he is one player. The problem with OU's defense is not the secondary it's the front 4 which can't get pressure on the qb and is soft against the run. A&M has neither of those problems. They have D. Moore and company to rush the passer and stuff the run. Also whether its a blowout or not who gives a crap. The line is 4 not 17. I care about COVERING THE SPREAD. M. Stoops can have all the time he wants but you have already seen how WV and OK State lit them up and A&M is better on the offensive side of the ball and MUCH MUCH BETTER on defense. OU got lit up AT HOME and should have lost the OSU game and if it wasn't for that checkdown on 4th down to the pass to Stills with 20 seconds left they lose to WV. This is not past OU defenses just like Bama doesnt have last year defenses and all the time in the world wont make a gigantic difference. Talent rules supreme. You are not even playing the game so why do you keep posting. If A&M doesn't cover life continues, I won today on the Indy/Detroit under first half and the Heat -8.5 first half. This is one bet out of thousands.

As far as teams I more into watching specific players. I think K. Barner is the best running back in college football and he is fun to watch. He would have run for 2k yards this year if he was able to play in the 2nd half of half the games.

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Posted: 12/15/2012 9:52:52 PM

One of the biggest reasons I don't like to bet very many bowl games is because it's hard to find value like you could in the regular season. Teams have so much time to prepare plus with the time off you don't know which team is better prepared plus teams that have had a lot of injuries have time to get back those players that have been hurt and get them into practice. On top of that and just as important you have so many coaching changes which lead to other teams having their OC or DC taken which is another factor you have to consider when betting on a game. Those intangibles are factors you don't have to consider during the regular season however the bowl season does setup certain games where you get games that you would not see during the regular season which can be gigantic mismatches. This leads me to my Game of the Year. This is not a lock or anything of that sort. I completely believe in dollar cost averaging when it comes to gambling and always bet 1 to 2 units per game. However in college football I feel there is always one or two games either during the week or during the bowl season where you have a significant edge. It's why I have a Game of the Week. For my game of the year I go back to my last game of the week when I played Florida over FSU.

Game of the Year-5 Unit Wager

Florida -13 over Louiville

I have touted Florida all year and based off of their quality wins and their only loss firmly believe they are the best team in the country. People immediately talk about their offense which isn't very sexy but this FL team is all about playing EXTREMELY GOOD defense, stuff the run and run the football as well as playing very good special teams. This is not just a play on how good I think Florida is but how weak Louisville is. They are 10-2 but that record is very deceptive. I use the Sagarin ratings because they are extremely accurate. Louiville is 52nd in the Sagarin ratings with the 88th rated SOS. They have played ZERO teams in the top 30. Strength of schedule is so underrated instead people look at records and think certain teams are better because of their record. Look at Utah who is 51st in the Sagarin ratings but are 5-7. Is Utah a bad team that didnt deserve a bowl game or did they play a touch schedule (27) and went 0-6 against teams in the top 30. While FL had the 16th SOS and went 4-1 against teams in the top 30 with wins AT A&M, AT FSU, LSU and blowing out SC. Even playing against that schedule they were 3rd in the country in defensive scoring giving up only 12 pts per game while Louiville gives up double playing 4 times as weak of a schedule. Fl has multiple players on the defensive side of the ball not just one or two players. Louiville can't run the ball and going up against FL REALLY won't be able to run the ball which leaves Bridgewater who I think is one of the top 5 qbs in the country to win this game. He may be back to 100% for this game and even so it won't make a difference. I have tremendous respect for Strong and Bridgewater but the Cardinals have never seen a team even close to this when it comes to speed, talent and overall team strength. What hurts the Cardinals even more is they are one of the worst teams in the NCAA when it comes to punting and field position while FL is one of the best. That means short fields all day long for a FL team that forces turnovers and will be taking shots on Bridgewater all day long. Fl with their running game and relentless defense wear down a team and then just beat you down like the FSU game. The total on this is 46 and would be surprised to see Louiville score more than 10 points in this game. I think Strong will have his team ready and prepared but FL is just too well coached and talented in every single facet for the Cardinals to be able to stick with them over the course of the game.

The game should go over because FL will cause 2-3 turnovers in the game resulting in quick points. Cardinals may be able to punch in some garbage points very late in the game.

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Posted: 12/15/2012 11:19:00 PM
Man I hate to keep going back and forth with you but I bet against OU 4 times ATS and won all 4. My biggest game all year was the ND game.

I don't feel I am hard on the Jones either. I have been a huge Jones backer even when most OU fans were ready for Bell to take over. For you to say the "int wasnt that big of a deal" is crazy talk. Down by 4 in the 4th and tossed it up off his back foot were there was no one because he got the happy feet (on your 30 yard line). You score on that drive you can win. You punt your still in it. You turn it over it KILLS you. The fumble was the worst. Holding the ball down by your waste running around on your own goal line is something a freshman does. After that game he has been alot different. He thrown good under pressure. He has shown confidence in more WRs and has spread it around A LOT. The check down against WV was one of the best, heads up, clutch plays I have seen all year by any QB.

I don't think it's as much on the front 4 as it is the LBs. The LB play has been so bad that at the end of the season (except against TCU) most of the time they have played 1 LB and 6 DBs.

Anyways I just posted on here for a little debate and someone else's opinion. I have friends that are huge A&M fans and know their stuff and they are worried about losing Kingsbury. I guess the truth is no one knows how that will workout.
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#83
Posted: 12/15/2012 11:23:54 PM
I agree 100% with that last post. I played Florida huge and early because I thought Strong was gone and now that he is staying I'm not AS sure about my play.
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Posted: 12/16/2012 12:47:59 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CapPRO:

Man I hate to keep going back and forth with you but I bet against OU 4 times ATS and won all 4. My biggest game all year was the ND game. WHO CARES!!!

I don't feel I am hard on the Jones either. I have been a huge Jones backer even when most OU fans were ready for Bell to take over. For you to say the "int wasnt that big of a deal" is crazy talk. Down by 4 in the 4th?????? and tossed it up off his back foot were there was no one because he got the happy feet (on your 30 yard line). You score on that drive you can win. You punt your still in it. You turn it over it KILLS you. The fumble was the worst. Holding the ball down by your waste running around on your own goal line is something a freshman does. After that game he has been alot different. He thrown good under pressure. He has shown confidence in more WRs and has spread it around A LOT. The check down against WV was one of the best, heads up, clutch plays I have seen all year by any QB.

I don't think it's as much on the front 4 as it is the LBs. The LB play has been so bad that at the end of the season (except against TCU) most of the time they have played 1 LB and 6 DBs.

Anyways I just posted on here for a little debate and someone else's opinion. I have friends that are huge A&M fans and know their stuff and they are worried about losing Kingsbury. I guess the truth is no one knows how that will workout.

Are you serious? I feel sorry for OU fans because you are proving my point about homers. What do you expect Jones to play the PERFECT GAME? Name ANY QB that doesnt make mistakes. He wasn't playing the Sisters of the Poor. Kstate was one loss away from playing for the NC game. I guess if your qb doesnt throw for 400 yards with no int and fumbles he is playing like a freshman. Do you not remember the game? Obviously because you don't even understand how the plays went. After the fumble, he took OU down the field and Bell fumbled the ball on 2nd and goal. They would taken the lead which made the fumble moot. Also the interception was in the 3rd qtr. You said if they score there they win the game. They were at their own 16 yard line. Also OU WAS LEADING BY 3 now down by 6. WTF are you talking about that makes NO SENSE. Bell's fumble was much much bigger. It's hard to take you serious when you don't even know how the game went. OU had it's chances in the 4th and were not able to come back game over.

Also why do you keep mentioning that you have bet against OU and bet on OU all year and won. How is that relevant at all? You are not even betting the game. I could care less about any of that it makes no difference. You can be a gigantic homer and still bet against your team. The comments you made above about Jones is why you are a homer. If you don't think that their front 4 is a problem than you are delusional. OU has HUGE problems because they have not been able to recruit a big time player like they have had in the past. They are losing in the trenches its why WV and Ok State scored at will on them. They have one of the best secondarys in the country but that doesnt mean squat when you are getting gashed in the front.

Also the whole thing about KK is so overrated. Sumlin is the head coach not KK. If Sumlin was gone I would be worried. Sumlin knows this offense better than anyone. I know OU fans are drawing at straws hoping that KK not being there will make a difference but Sumlin is a veteran coach that knows how to run an offense. Do you not know his background?? I fully expect A&M to be just as explosive. People don't realize how loaded A&M is on the offensive and defensive line.

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#85
Posted: 12/16/2012 12:53:36 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CapPRO:

I agree 100% with that last post. I played Florida huge and early because I thought Strong was gone and now that he is staying I'm not AS sure about my play.

I knew that Strong was staying because the AD flat out and said that he would match any offer no matter how much plus he has Bridgewater. Strong is a good coach but he doesn't add to the talent on the field which is what the Cardinals are severely lacking.

Do you actually have any plays of your own I have yet to see any?

You clog up this thread about posts on OU but say you won't even put money on them. Give me a break. Nothing personal just stay out of thread. I am so done talking about this game.

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Posted: 12/16/2012 9:10:20 AM
Yes I know sumlins background well. I know that KK was running the same style offense before Sumlin was with him and it was clicking very well. I also know that he has never called plays in this style offense. I understand the man knows offense very well. Your probably right and it won't be a big deal.
The only reason I said I bet against them and won is because you said homers think there team is better than they are. I think I have capped them very well this year.
I never said they don't have a problem with the front 4 I just said it is not the biggest. The LB play has been the worst in my opinion.

I apologize for clogging your thread but I knew the AD said that about strong but I figured going to a bigger SEC team where he could get better recruits would be to much to turn down. I was wrong....

To answer your question yes I have plays. So far they are: Oregon-9, ND+10, FL-13, Baylor+1.5, miss-3.5, and Texas +2. I like Georgia but haven't pulled the trigger.
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Posted: 12/16/2012 11:59:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NevadaGamer:

WHAT BIAS?? I have made money on Bama both ways all year. I have said that they are a top 3 team. Homers call you bias because you bet against their team. I played agaist Bama against LSU, A&M and Georgia because it was the right play and those are the only good teams Bama faced. I am making my standard play on any team just like I have in the past.

How much did you make playing against Bama in out of conference games? Look at common opponents Bama could have named the score against Michigan and ND needed 6 turnovers to survive a close game at home against them in a game Michigan dominated statistically. Bama has an underrated offense that can run on anyone. Eventually the SEC will lose a NC game but not this year.
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Posted: 12/19/2012 4:56:49 PM

Adding La Laf -5.5 over E Carolina

This is just an absolute fade on E Carolina. This team defense is like swiss cheese while Laf can score in the red zone and stop the run somewhat while E Carolina can't stop anyone. E Carolina is probably the worst team in a bowl game.

Updating all my plays

Texas A&M -5 GOW

Oregon -7 but would still play them at 9.5

ND +10.5 bought half pt. I have this played at 8 also but the line has gone up.

Florida -13 GOY

Ball State over 61.5 Wenning for Ball State is still questionable but both teams have bad defense so scoring should not be a problem. I see a 38-31 type of game.

Purdue+18 I am not as confident about this play but OK state losing their OC is a bigger problem than A&M has because Gundy doesn't know that offense. I have heard he doesn't really want to know offense that well because he may try to overall the coaches on some of the different plays but Shelf is the qb and runs the show.  This bet is more of play on the number of points Purdue is getting. Make no mistake they are not a good team but OK state defense is nothing special.

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Posted: 12/19/2012 5:29:08 PM

Hey NG, great work! I will be tailing you on A&M and Florida. You have any thoughts on the Oregon st vs Texas game. I think Oregon st -2 is a gift. Texas is vastly overrated and have been all year. Any insight would be appreciated. Thanks.

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Posted: 12/19/2012 5:40:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SCTroll:

Hey NG, great work! I will be tailing you on A&M and Florida. You have any thoughts on the Oregon st vs Texas game. I think Oregon st -2 is a gift. Texas is vastly overrated and have been all year. Any insight would be appreciated. Thanks.

I have been high on OSU all year then Mannion got hurt and came back and looked worse. Ash has been named the qb and Texas is banged up on the D line. The line is -2 because it's hard to tell which team will show up. Mannion is such a ? mark. If he is the starter and plays well OSU wins by double digits. You can't put too much stock into the Civil War because Oregon is just too good and have owned them the past few years. I don't think Texas is overrated. They are about as good as people think they are. I give the edge to OSU because I think they have the better defense slightly and they probably have the best combo WR's in the country. Those guys can flat out burn. I have to think Riley gets Mannion back to where he was before he was hurt and those WR's will big play Texas all day long.

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Posted: 12/19/2012 6:52:12 PM
Love the Ore pick.  This is my large play for bowl season - maybe ten units.  With Oregon getting healthy, they are going to wear out KState.  Oregon has a decent defense that will come up with stops but I do not see KState stopping the O O.

This matchup reminds me of the Baylor game for KState.
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Posted: 12/21/2012 4:50:25 PM
As of now Wenning is playing so I will definitely be on the over tonight. Ball State defense gives up 31 a game and UCF gives up 22. Both teams are very balanced on offense so should be a pretty good game. UCF is too much of a question mark to lay 7 with but I am not too hot about playing on a defense that gives up 31 a game. GL
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Posted: 12/21/2012 5:33:30 PM
I think Johnny football is doing a few more un -football related activities than Landry right now! And the NBA announcer called out the SEC for its being penalized 12 times in recent years (Cam Newton/ Miss st. etc) for being "Dirty"...Funny stuff! If your not cheating your not trying!!!
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Posted: 12/21/2012 7:34:54 PM
Liking the Picks Nevada and loving the way you put Train in his place.  You seem to have a good grasp on the games and it is refreshing to see someone on here that can rattle off a litany of facts for why they like a certain team or game.  Best of luck and go get that money this bowl season. 
 As a side note, as a Husker fan, we are going to get killed by Georgia.  I read your reservations on betting them and the Big Ten and I am here to set you at ease.  Our defense is absolute garbage and will be hard-pressed to stop those Dawgs.  
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#95
Posted: 1/3/2013 1:56:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NevadaGamer:

One more game is Purdue +18 over Ok State

WTF how is OK State 18 pts better than Purdue. This same team could have beaten ND and OK State defense is nowhere close to where it needs to be as far as winning this big. This will be a high scoring game but 3 scores????

The A&M Game is 4. I dont like saying Game of the Year but I will be on this game max bet.

ND is up to 9.5 I bought it to 10. Bama getting waaaay to much respect. This line should be around 4 IMO.

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#96
Posted: 1/3/2013 1:58:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NevadaGamer:

Game of the Year-5 Unit Wager

Florida -13 over Louiville

I have touted Florida all year and based off of their quality wins and their only loss firmly believe they are the best team in the country. People immediately talk about their offense which isn't very sexy but this FL team is all about playing EXTREMELY GOOD defense, stuff the run and run the football as well as playing very good special teams. This is not just a play on how good I think Florida is but how weak Louisville is. They are 10-2 but that record is very deceptive. I use the Sagarin ratings because they are extremely accurate. Louiville is 52nd in the Sagarin ratings with the 88th rated SOS. They have played ZERO teams in the top 30. Strength of schedule is so underrated instead people look at records and think certain teams are better because of their record. Look at Utah who is 51st in the Sagarin ratings but are 5-7. Is Utah a bad team that didnt deserve a bowl game or did they play a touch schedule (27) and went 0-6 against teams in the top 30. While FL had the 16th SOS and went 4-1 against teams in the top 30 with wins AT A&M, AT FSU, LSU and blowing out SC. Even playing against that schedule they were 3rd in the country in defensive scoring giving up only 12 pts per game while Louiville gives up double playing 4 times as weak of a schedule. Fl has multiple players on the defensive side of the ball not just one or two players. Louiville can't run the ball and going up against FL REALLY won't be able to run the ball which leaves Bridgewater who I think is one of the top 5 qbs in the country to win this game. He may be back to 100% for this game and even so it won't make a difference. I have tremendous respect for Strong and Bridgewater but the Cardinals have never seen a team even close to this when it comes to speed, talent and overall team strength. What hurts the Cardinals even more is they are one of the worst teams in the NCAA when it comes to punting and field position while FL is one of the best. That means short fields all day long for a FL team that forces turnovers and will be taking shots on Bridgewater all day long. Fl with their running game and relentless defense wear down a team and then just beat you down like the FSU game. The total on this is 46 and would be surprised to see Louiville score more than 10 points in this game. I think Strong will have his team ready and prepared but FL is just too well coached and talented in every single facet for the Cardinals to be able to stick with them over the course of the game.

The game should go over because FL will cause 2-3 turnovers in the game resulting in quick points. Cardinals may be able to punch in some garbage points very late in the game.

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Capper007
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#97
Posted: 1/3/2013 1:59:41 PM

I had:

Football - 259 Louisville +475 for Game

Football - 259 Louisville +470 for Game

Football - 259 Louisville +425 for Game

Football - 259 Louisville +14 -110 for Game

Football - 259 Louisville +14½ -110 for Game

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#98
Posted: 1/3/2013 2:36:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Capper007:

I had:

Football - 259 Louisville +475 for Game

Football - 259 Louisville +470 for Game

Football - 259 Louisville +425 for Game

Football - 259 Louisville +14 -110 for Game

Football - 259 Louisville +14½ -110 for Game



Your seriously coming into a guys thread after he loses, laughing, and shoving your picks in his face?...picks you got from Charlotte?

Unless I'm missing something, your despicable.confused


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#99
Posted: 1/3/2013 5:40:48 PM
Good Luck
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Capper007
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#100
Posted: 1/3/2013 6:40:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Cooler999:



Your seriously coming into a guys thread after he loses, laughing, and shoving your picks in his face?...picks you got from Charlotte?

Unless I'm missing something, your despicable.


we have been battling the whole thread and he has been calling Florida the Game of the year! I told him i was on the other side of all his picks

 

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