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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Missouri St. at Miami - Florida (03/21/2011)
Covers send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 3/17/2011 10:46:59 AM

Away:  Missouri St. [16-15-2 ATS]
Home:  Miami - Florida [15-13-1 ATS]

Game Time: 7:00 PM
Stadium: BankUnited Center

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Missouri St.:
Points: Kyle Weems (16.0)
Assists: Nafis Ricks (3.9)
Rebounds: Kyle Weems (6.9)

Miami - Florida:
Points: Malcolm Grant (15.2)
Assists: Malcolm Grant (3.3)
Rebounds: Reggie Johnson (9.7)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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bkg1010
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#2
Posted: 3/21/2011 11:31:27 AM
I'll take the Canes minus the chalk at home here! 
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xxMARTINIxx
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#3
Posted: 3/21/2011 12:05:59 PM
CANES---going with Conference here
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frogs
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#4
Posted: 3/21/2011 3:22:18 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bkg1010:

I'll take the Canes minus the chalk at home here! 

 

be careful going with the "herd mentality" choosing favs. they have not been hitting, books are cleaning up. look what happened just in the last few days to the following:

  • Notre Dame (Got smoked)
  • Syracuse      (lost outright)
  • Purdue         (Got smoked!)
  • Texas           (lost outright)
  • Louisville      (Got smoked)
  • Pitt                (lost outright)
  • UNC              (didn't cover)
  • Va tech         (lost outright)
  • Duke             (didn't cover)

Ohio state covered but the herd was on George Mason +11 . some idiot so called professional handicapper on covers gave GM +11 as his free pick...YIKES!!!!!  GM is not even in the same universe as OSU. Kansas also covered, but is also in a different universe than Illinois.

my strategy is: bet the dogs and take the points for 80% of the wager and put 20% on the ML.

bottom line.......FADE THE CONSENSUS

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#5
Posted: 3/21/2011 4:49:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by frogs:

 

be careful going with the "herd mentality" choosing favs. they have not been hitting, books are cleaning up. look what happened just in the last few days to the following:

  • Notre Dame (Got smoked)
  • Syracuse      (lost outright)
  • Purdue         (Got smoked!)
  • Texas           (lost outright)
  • Louisville      (Got smoked)
  • Pitt                (lost outright)
  • UNC              (didn't cover)
  • Va tech         (lost outright)
  • Duke             (didn't cover)

Ohio state covered but the herd was on George Mason +11 . some idiot so called professional handicapper on covers gave GM +11 as his free pick...YIKES!!!!!  GM is not even in the same universe as OSU. Kansas also covered, but is also in a different universe than Illinois.

my strategy is: bet the dogs and take the points for 80% of the wager and put 20% on the ML.

bottom line.......FADE THE CONSENSUS

It's about time i ran across a post that made sense.  Where have u been, my friend?  I've been preaching about fading the covers.com consensus for about a year now.  The method varies from sport to sport but i find that it works more than half of the time overall.  I like to fade the consensus during NFL season especially since nobody has a clue and most people lose betting NFL.  There were weeks when only 4-6 games were correctly chosen by the consensus.  Pick ur spots, lay ur straights vs. consensus, and make ur money.

For example, this game caught my attention immediatley since it looked like an obvious inclination for the public perception to choose the more familiar school ( Miami ) at home vs. unfamiliar school ( Mizz St ) minus considerable chalk.  6 1/2 pts is not easy to cover in tourney games unless ur clearly more talented / better coached than the opposition and such is NOT the case in this matchup.  Mizz St. has more experience.  And I believe they have the better coach.  In college basketball, the better coach means ALOT.  Trust me on this one.  Study the teams who are always in the tourney convo / pull off upsets, etc. and you will see they are guided by brilliant motivational coaches.  It's not a coincidence that u see teams like Duke, UNC, UConn, Syracuse, Xavier, Purdue, Pittsburgh, etc. in tourney every year.  Lemme give u a better example:  Shaka Smart, coach of VCU, is a protege of Billy Donovan, and is taking VCU to Sweet 16 for first time in school's history.  The guy is only 33.  Enough said.

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#6
Posted: 3/21/2011 5:18:02 PM

Frogs and JoeDaddy, nice wite ups and my sentiments exactly.  I can't really add much except

Missouri State +4.5

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#7
Posted: 3/21/2011 5:26:48 PM
UNDER 136!!!!
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#8
Posted: 3/21/2011 5:45:04 PM
yeah almost every dog won or covered yesterday. that happens. some days almost every favorite covers as well. that doesnt mean all dogs are gonna cover everyday. not to mention that most of the dogs that did cover yesterday were ones tons of people were on. FSU,VCU,butler,wichst, were all popular dog plays
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#9
Posted: 3/21/2011 6:25:45 PM
Frog
the games you listed were teams that did not make the NIT

so we must ask how soft are these lines?

Obviously more people are paying attention to the NCAA tournament than the NIT.
So we cannot connect the two saying because dogs covered in NCAA tourney that the dogs will do the same in the NIT.

These games are watched less and could be in our favor if you are betting favorites.

Talent wise you have to like Miami.  They have played tougher teams and in a overall better conference.
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#10
Posted: 3/21/2011 6:39:51 PM
OVER 136 !!!!
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#11
Posted: 3/21/2011 6:40:22 PM
Is this the same thing we saw yesterday with Va. Tech at home taking on Wichita St. ???  

Cleveland St. at home taking on CofC ???

Taking the points may be the smart play tonight.
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#12
Posted: 3/21/2011 6:43:35 PM

If I'm not mistaken, aside from the Butler/Pittsburgh game, all the favorites covered on Saturday.

Kentucky, UConn, San Diego St, Richmond, Wisconsin, & Florida.  BYU was a pick em.

 

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#13
Posted: 3/21/2011 8:46:27 PM

Too bad Mizz St is friggin GARBAGE.   They're guards can't make free throws but Miami's big man who shoots 39% can.  Mizz st and their womens basketball conference don't belong in the NIT much less the NCAA Tourney.  Miami shoots 3s.  Its what they do and Mizz St makes no effort to defend it. 

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