Posted: 3/21/2011 4:49:54 PM
Originally Posted by frogs
be careful going with the "herd mentality" choosing favs. they have not been hitting, books are cleaning up. look what happened just in the last few days to the following:
- Notre Dame (Got smoked)
- Syracuse (lost outright)
- Purdue (Got smoked!)
- Texas (lost outright)
- Louisville (Got smoked)
- Pitt (lost outright)
- UNC (didn't cover)
- Va tech (lost outright)
- Duke (didn't cover)
Ohio state covered but the herd was on George Mason +11 . some idiot so called professional handicapper on covers gave GM +11 as his free pick...YIKES!!!!! GM is not even in the same universe as OSU. Kansas also covered, but is also in a different universe than Illinois.
my strategy is: bet the dogs and take the points for 80% of the wager and put 20% on the ML.
bottom line.......FADE THE CONSENSUS
It's about time i ran across a post that made sense. Where have u been, my friend? I've been preaching about fading the covers.com consensus for about a year now. The method varies from sport to sport but i find that it works more than half of the time overall. I like to fade the consensus during NFL season especially since nobody has a clue and most people lose betting NFL. There were weeks when only 4-6 games were correctly chosen by the consensus. Pick ur spots, lay ur straights vs. consensus, and make ur money.
For example, this game caught my attention immediatley since it looked like an obvious inclination for the public perception to choose the more familiar school ( Miami ) at home vs. unfamiliar school ( Mizz St ) minus considerable chalk. 6 1/2 pts is not easy to cover in tourney games unless ur clearly more talented / better coached than the opposition and such is NOT the case in this matchup. Mizz St. has more experience. And I believe they have the better coach. In college basketball, the better coach means ALOT. Trust me on this one. Study the teams who are always in the tourney convo / pull off upsets, etc. and you will see they are guided by brilliant motivational coaches. It's not a coincidence that u see teams like Duke, UNC, UConn, Syracuse, Xavier, Purdue, Pittsburgh, etc. in tourney every year. Lemme give u a better example: Shaka Smart, coach of VCU, is a protege of Billy Donovan, and is taking VCU to Sweet 16 for first time in school's history. The guy is only 33. Enough said.