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[NBA Betting] Topic: Longtime Bets; Season Wins Vs. Regular Day-to-Day Picks |
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Asomugha |
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#1 Posted: 8/20/2012 8:00:12 PM
So many times last season i got fucked over on the worst bullshit, it happened so many times i have lost count and track of it. With season wins it will even out on a whole season and one unlucky night will most likely not be that costly.
Many people have told me that they dont like long time bets because they want action every night.
Why not just throw like 15 units on 2 or 3 long time bets instead of throwing 1-2 unit every night and get unlucky anyways?
My plan is that i will find 2 or 3 over / under wins and then pound them hard with like 15 units instead of the regular 1 unit i play, then i still get lots of action for the whole season and i avoid being fucked over every night.
However, when i found something really interesting i will still be playing some 1 unit plays but then just accept the losses when they come, but i will much rather go with more units on the over / under season wins because then i will avoid unlucky trips.
What is you guys thoughts on this? 
Looking forward to the next season already.
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shaps17 |
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#2 Posted: 8/21/2012 2:58:58 AM
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#3 Posted: 8/21/2012 5:34:10 PM
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Asomugha |
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#4 Posted: 8/21/2012 5:38:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123: yeah but also more riskier. Look at minny last year. Ricky got hurt and everything went downhill for them. Same for the Bulls. some good values, but still risky
Funny that you talk about Minnesota, because Minnesota got 26 wins this season, and their line was 20.5 before the season.
So lets say some1 liked the over season wins, he would have taken over 20,5, even with injuries they managed to cover this spread.
But, of course, you gotta take injuries into consideration thats part of the job when analyzing before hand.
Like if u like Eagles for over 9.5 Wins, then u gotta consider the chances of vick being injured, how will they recover, who will they use for back up, etc. Thats just interesting to think like that in my book.
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Asomugha |
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#5 Posted: 8/21/2012 5:39:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by shaps17: Your not the only one. Much less luck factor involved when your bet covers an 82 game season
Exactly - good to see im not alone
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#6 Posted: 8/22/2012 2:45:07 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha:
Funny that you talk about Minnesota, because Minnesota got 26 wins this season, and their line was 20.5 before the season.
So lets say some1 liked the over season wins, he would have taken over 20,5, even with injuries they managed to cover this spread.
But, of course, you gotta take injuries into consideration thats part of the job when analyzing before hand.
Like if u like Eagles for over 9.5 Wins, then u gotta consider the chances of vick being injured, how will they recover, who will they use for back up, etc. Thats just interesting to think like that in my book.
i talk about minny because it showed how 1 player can impact the whole team win-wise. If Ricky got hurt earlier, i dont think Minny could manage 20 wins. Just look how they got from great to awful in a blink of an eye.
Its still a better bet to take the season wins, but i hate to wait a whole year to see if i won or not. We want action, thats why we bet ( and for the $$$ ofc  )
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Asomugha |
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#7 Posted: 8/22/2012 4:24:33 AM |
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#8 Posted: 8/22/2012 4:40:59 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha: Mad Skillz: Dont u think u get lots of action if u have 20 units out on a bet? Thats action every night for me, where every singe win is important if u have the over for a team. Thats lots of action as i see it.
yeah but you cant celebrate after a win. And also, you got your money tied up for a year. You need different kind of bankroll for future wagers, esp. if they are as big as you are saying they will be.
and some lottery teams can tank the last 5-10 games and darn you when you are least expecting. Or some playoffs teams that secured spots ( 3 or 4 ) and rest starters in last few games and darn you...and you were looking great just a week ago...
im not saying i dont make future bets. I did last year ( Miami to win it all ) and i regret it because i could get much much better value in the playoffs ( down 2-1 vs Indy ) and down 3-2 vs C's....
good luck nevertheless
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Asomugha |
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#9 Posted: 8/22/2012 5:52:21 PM
- What will happen if xx player gets injured
- How will team xx do in this situation if they cant make the play offs
- How is their schedule
It's just another way of capping and it wont get u fucked over on just one bad night. Look at it the other way around, your pick could be totally dead, but if your schedule faces 5-10 teams that will tank then u could be lucky and get the win anyways.
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Asomugha |
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#10 Posted: 8/23/2012 2:51:50 AM |
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#11 Posted: 8/23/2012 4:14:35 AM
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Asomugha |
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#12 Posted: 8/23/2012 6:27:08 AM
i like xxx points scored and season wins before the season starts.
Miami is a lean tho, but wont bet on them till 40 games or 50 games have been played (after the all star break maybe) think they will win b2b |
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#13 Posted: 8/23/2012 8:47:03 AM
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Asomugha |
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#14 Posted: 8/23/2012 6:19:33 PM
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thorpe |
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#15 Posted: 8/26/2012 11:17:03 PM
I don't have time to handicap the games and watch them (this would be about 8 hours a day - 3 hours to cap and about 5+ hours of games). I could put bets in without capping, but what is the point of that?
With season wins you are betting every game ML, so you don't get beat on a meaningless basket, or lose because someone fouls down 8 with 2 seconds left.
AS far as tying money up for a long time, I don't gamble with money that I'd ever need to pay bills, and I am a million times more likely to turn a profit on futures than making 800 wagers in a season.
Two thing you are right about - it is a ton of action watching your futures unfold over a season, and you are usually better off waiting a month or two to bet some of these futures (NBA title, Conf winner, Div winner). Books are usually slow to adjust the odds on these wagers.
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#16 Posted: 8/27/2012 2:25:55 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha:
really? Where? Bet365 does not have those.
bwin
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#17 Posted: 8/30/2012 3:20:31 AM   
Mad -
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thorpe |
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#18 Posted: 9/29/2012 10:17:25 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha: thorpe - Mad -
Never too early for the NBA. A lot of moves this offseason to think about.
Season wins
Heat 65 Bulls 57 Knicks 53 New Jersey 51 Celtics 49 Pacers 48 Sixers 46 Detroit 40 Bucks 40 Atlanta 31 Cavs 31 Toronto 28 Washington 24 Magic 23 Charlotte 21
Lakers 62 OK C 59 Spurs 54 Clips 52 Memphis 51 Denver 47 Minny 43 Utah 42 Dallas 42 Houston 42 Portland 30 GS 30 Sac 30 Pho 28 NO 26 |
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Mikado |
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#19 Posted: 10/7/2012 4:44:56 PM
Most people here are in a get rich quick type of mentality and do not take the time to realize that playing over the long term is a lot less risky than playing one game in the short term.
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Mikado |
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#20 Posted: 10/7/2012 4:46:47 PM |
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#21 Posted: 10/7/2012 6:07:55 PM
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#22 Posted: 10/7/2012 6:08:18 PM
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#23 Posted: 10/7/2012 6:08:40 PM 
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#24 Posted: 10/7/2012 6:15:51 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:
magic 23? imo...more
Careful Magic will be garbage this year
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thorpe |
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#25 Posted: 10/12/2012 1:15:35 PM Atlanta Under 43 Bulls Over 48 Knicks Over 46 Detroit Over 32.5 Atlanta Under 43 Washington Under 31 Houston Over 30.5 Portland Under 35 Golden St Under 35.5 Phoenix Under 33.5 Brooklyn over 44 |
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