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Author: [Tennis] Topic: tennis_sunday
Anent
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#1
Posted: 4/15/2012 4:05:12 AM
Ivan Ljubicic +120* vs Ivan Dodig - this is a fanboy bet cuz I'm a big Ljubicic fan.  I think he'll win this match. (1 unit)

Albert Ramos +105* vs Pablo Andujar - I've been avoiding Ramos, but I guess I'll take him in the end.  Don't see him losing to Andujar. (3 units)

Mikhail Kukushkin -185* vs Arnaud Clement 
Michael Berrer +125* vs Tobias Kamke 
Sergei Bubka +220* vs Simone Bolelli 

qualifying matches are only .33 units each.



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#2
Posted: 4/15/2012 5:58:05 AM
J-R.Lisnard Games Won* +5 -115  vs V.Troicki Games Won
1 unit (this is a rare follow play off a computer program pick)

Ivan Ljubicic* +120  vs Ivan Dodig - adding another unit on this play
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#3
Posted: 4/15/2012 6:01:08 AM
Sara Errani* -110  vs Dominika Cibulkova = 2 units

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#4
Posted: 4/15/2012 6:11:54 AM
Ramos is 1-4 against Andujar.  3 units is risky.
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#5
Posted: 4/15/2012 6:52:43 AM
IL is getting squashed!
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#6
Posted: 4/15/2012 7:03:55 AM
Ljubicic finally won a game!

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#7
Posted: 4/15/2012 7:39:00 AM
Ljubicic got killed.  Wish I hadn't added a second unit.  Hopefully Errani will win and more than offset.  She's playing well and is up a break in the first set.

Berrer = win
Kukushkin = win

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#8
Posted: 4/15/2012 7:48:27 AM
Errani is doing to Cibulkova what Dodig did to Ljubicic.

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#9
Posted: 4/15/2012 8:00:44 AM
Caroline Wozniacki* -240  vs Angelique Kerber 2 units

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#10
Posted: 4/15/2012 8:10:49 AM
Errani = win (good thing)


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#11
Posted: 4/15/2012 8:12:45 AM
  1. 4/15/2012 8:15 AM WTA Doubles Tennis 351 S.Errani/R.Vinci* -170  vs F.Pennetta/F.Schiavone
  2. 4/15/2012 11:30 AM Challenger Tennis 801 Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo* -185  vs Carlos Salamanca

1 unit

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#12
Posted: 4/15/2012 8:13:57 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Anent:

Errani is doing to Cibulkova what Dodig did to Ljubicic.

 

lol. so true

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#13
Posted: 4/15/2012 8:14:51 AM
Hey Anent nice win with Errani. Followed you on that play.
Thinking about taking Wozniacki a littler later. What do you think about that play?
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#14
Posted: 4/15/2012 8:36:30 AM
B.Balleret Games Won/G.Simon Games Won* Under 17½ -125 .33 units

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#15
Posted: 4/15/2012 8:56:53 AM
Isner side 3 units

Ibchris81,

thanks dude.

I like Wozny but I don't trust the side of -4.  I think that winds up being a push or maybe even a loss (most likely a push).  Hence the ml play.  She could definitely lose, but she's been very focused in her matches lately and obviously has the history of winning.  Plus, she's 2-0 against Kerber.
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#16
Posted: 4/15/2012 8:59:44 AM
Lisnard is gonna lose on that follow match.  One of my many weaknessess as a sports better is going against my play and following some "authority's" play - like a pro capper or, in this case, a computer program that I won one game following before.  But in this case, I went against my gut and against Troicki - a player who always seems to perform pretty well against the spread as a heavy favorite.
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#17
Posted: 4/15/2012 9:00:45 AM
I think she'll most likely win but her ml return isn't that great.. I was leaning towards either Kerber +4 or over 20.5 games and took the over 20.5. Kerber gave her the hardest math here last year and Kerber is even better this year, although she wasn't playingn that great the first 2 games. Wozniaki has breezed through but Kerber has played the tougher opponents
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#18
Posted: 4/15/2012 9:03:12 AM
I see Sousa just won a three-setter against Marti.  I was leaning on Marti, but never placed the bet.  Glad I didn't.  It seemed very close, too close for me to get any sense of a prediction.
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#19
Posted: 4/15/2012 9:05:44 AM
PhatChineseDude

I think your over play is an excellent call.

GL

(yes, the ML payout is low, but the line seems right to me - in fact, very right, which is why I'm thinking that side of -4 will push).

We'll see!!!


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#20
Posted: 4/15/2012 9:06:10 AM
match just starting.

I'm going to bed.

GL everyone.
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#21
Posted: 4/15/2012 9:07:22 AM
not sure when that Capdeville match resumes today?
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#22
Posted: 4/15/2012 9:07:46 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Anent:

Lisnard is gonna lose on that follow match.  One of my many weaknessess as a sports better is going against my play and following some "authority's" play - like a pro capper or, in this case, a computer program that I won one game following before.  But in this case, I went against my gut and against Troicki - a player who always seems to perform pretty well against the spread as a heavy favorite.

 

I don't think Lisnard was a bad bet..it was a it of a toss up. I was tempted to go with Troicki-5, but didn't because he's definitly not playing up to wordl #27 standards and Lisnard is #390 but has beaten people in the 100's and given top 100 players tough matches. Last year he played Troicki (who was playing better)tough for the first set so it wasnt unreasonable to think he could do that little bit better this year

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#23
Posted: 4/16/2012 2:48:30 AM
PhatChineseDude

thanks for the good feedback bro. 

bad day at black rock!

one thing I've noticed, a negative betting pattern, is that I tend to to poorly on higher unit plays.

need to change that.

moving on.

will tally things later.




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