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Author:	[College Basketball] Topic: Which STAT carries most weight in NCAAB?
Snookslayer	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Prospect Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 164 Location: Florida	#1 Posted: 3/10/2012 10:27:28 PM Of course good handicapping any sport involves analysis of numerous stats, injuries and trends. But if you had to name one stat that holds the most weight in your handicapping of NCAAB, what would it be? Rpi, shooting percentage, rebounding, steals, etc....? For me it's the Turnover/Assist ratio. Perhaps it's from bs correlations my brain has created over the years, but I feel like I do best giving a lot of weight to that particular stat. I'll often pass on teams I like simply because they have significantly inferior turnover/assist ratios. Of course I consider both overall ratio as well as from recent games. In any case, I was wondering which stat holds the most weight to the Covers community with respect to NCAAB handicapping?
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Alien-1	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Dec 2008 Posts: 1961 Location: Canada	#2 Posted: 3/10/2012 10:54:19 PM You will not find just "one" stat that holds the most weight. Every capper is different as to what he finds crucial when assessing a game. Use whatever stat works for you. There is no right answer here. I like to use DOG vs. FAVE ats stats.........excluding the really shitty teams who are always a dog or the really good teams who are always a fave. This is a real good indicator of how a team tends to perform in these roles. Tells alot.
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renorunner2	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2011 Posts: 213 Location: Nevada	#3 Posted: 3/11/2012 12:24:58 AM I would say the average IQ and mental discipline of the teams. A collective cerebral capacity that would be an asset to their game. Take away the fast twitch muscle capacity, muscle memory in physical movement and repetition, and natural size, speed and quickness by countering it with a team with equal or even at a slighty less physical level but a higher mental capacity and I'll take the team with higher level of gray matter any time. This applies to basically all levels of competitive sports. Some examples would be penalties in the FB, missed free throws in BB etc.
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Snookslayer	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Prospect Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 164 Location: Florida	#4 Posted: 3/11/2012 12:25:41 AM Obviously there is no one correct answer. But I thought it would be interesting to hear if any particular NCAAB stat tends to jump out at bettors around here.
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thisguyiswise	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Dec 2003 Posts: 6852 Location: Wisconsin	#5 Posted: 3/11/2012 12:29:39 AM A big one often forgotten until your bet literally hangs in the balance of the fool on the line...FREE THROW SHOOTING lets take 2 cases. Cincy worst free throw shooting team in big east, down 4 misses two. They go 1 for 7 from the line, the ville goes 11 of 12 Remember that Memphis team with Derrick Rose who could not shoot free throws and Calipari said we dont need a good ft percent to win? It cost them in the national champ game vs kansas. This year though, the worst free throw shooter on kentucky is at about 70 percent. This year, it should not cost them.
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thisguyiswise	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Dec 2003 Posts: 6852 Location: Wisconsin	#6 Posted: 3/11/2012 12:29:56 AM Turnovers are huge though.
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