dont know the exact track record of unders in preseason the last few years but i think if you bet every game under you will come out ahead?????? anyone got a track record of this??????
dont know the exact track record of unders in preseason the last few years but i think if you bet every game under you will come out ahead?????? anyone got a track record of this??????
Here's an article concerning just that 808 by Allen Moody of about.com sports gambling. Food for thought...
2012 NFL Preseason and Totals
Our final look at preseason football
will concentrate on totals. We touched upon totals a bit when we looked
at head coaches and their tendencies in 2012 NFL Coaches and Preseason
Betting, but this will be a much more detailed look at preseason totals.
Given the nature of preseason football, we'll break down each week
and see if there are some weeks where totals tend to go over or under a
greater percentage of the time. Preseason Football The image
of preseason football brings to mind a lot of 10-7 games with third- and
fourth-string players bumbling their way through the majority of the
game. You have quarterbacks who can't pass, receivers who can't catch
and linemen who can't block. From that standpoint, it's not really
surprising to see totals as low much lower in preseason than when the
games count.
But that perception is just that, a perception
and a false one at that, as over the past four years a bettor would have
shown a flat-bet profit by simply taking the over in every game. Preseason Totals
Over the past four years, preseason totals are 137-119-3 past four
seasons, which translates to 54%. Not quite high enough to instill a lot
of confidence in betting all of the overs, but certainly not a bad
starting point.
Now, a week-by-week breakdown: Week One Overall: 36-28 34.5 points or less: 26-19 35 to 39.5 points: 10-9 40 to 44.5 points: 0-0
Week No. 1 has been a decent week for overs, particularly those games
with a low total, as they go over 57.8% of the time. It's a bit
surprising to see no totals of 40 or higher for opening week. Week Two Overall: 36-27-1 34.5 points or less: 12-5-1 35 to 39.5 points: 21-21 40 to 44.5 points: 3-1
The low totals really perform well in week No. 2, going a solid 12-5-1,
while the middle grouping is right at 50%. The higher totals also do
well in regards to the over, but with just four games in the sample
size, it's a bit difficult to get excited about. Week Three Overall: 32-32 34.5 points or less: 4-3 35 to 39.5 points: 19-22 40 to 44.5 points: 9-7
The totals come back to earth a little bit in week No. 3, while the higher totals go over more often than not once again. Week Four Overall: 31-31-2 34.5 points or less: 4-7-1 35 to 39.5 points: 26-22-1 40 to 44.5 points: 1-2
In week No. 4 we see complete reversals in all three categories, as the
lower totals and the higher totals both go under more often than not,
while the 35 to 39.5 grouping sees more games go over than not.
Now to look at the overall breakdown: Overall 34.5 points or less: 48-35-2 57.8% 35 to 39.5 points: 76-74-1 50.7% 40 to 44.5 points: 13-10-0 56.5%
Going over the extremely low-totaled games has been the best bet over
the past four years, hitting at nearly a 58% clip, closely followed by
the high totals, with the mid-range totals in the 50% range. Bypassing
the final week will increase your winning percentage greatly.
Those looking for an additional edge can compare the coaching trends
discussed in 2012 NFL Coaches and Preseason Betting and look for those
situations where the trends coincide, which should give you more of an
edge.
Here's an article concerning just that 808 by Allen Moody of about.com sports gambling. Food for thought...
2012 NFL Preseason and Totals
Our final look at preseason football
will concentrate on totals. We touched upon totals a bit when we looked
at head coaches and their tendencies in 2012 NFL Coaches and Preseason
Betting, but this will be a much more detailed look at preseason totals.
Given the nature of preseason football, we'll break down each week
and see if there are some weeks where totals tend to go over or under a
greater percentage of the time. Preseason Football The image
of preseason football brings to mind a lot of 10-7 games with third- and
fourth-string players bumbling their way through the majority of the
game. You have quarterbacks who can't pass, receivers who can't catch
and linemen who can't block. From that standpoint, it's not really
surprising to see totals as low much lower in preseason than when the
games count.
But that perception is just that, a perception
and a false one at that, as over the past four years a bettor would have
shown a flat-bet profit by simply taking the over in every game. Preseason Totals
Over the past four years, preseason totals are 137-119-3 past four
seasons, which translates to 54%. Not quite high enough to instill a lot
of confidence in betting all of the overs, but certainly not a bad
starting point.
Now, a week-by-week breakdown: Week One Overall: 36-28 34.5 points or less: 26-19 35 to 39.5 points: 10-9 40 to 44.5 points: 0-0
Week No. 1 has been a decent week for overs, particularly those games
with a low total, as they go over 57.8% of the time. It's a bit
surprising to see no totals of 40 or higher for opening week. Week Two Overall: 36-27-1 34.5 points or less: 12-5-1 35 to 39.5 points: 21-21 40 to 44.5 points: 3-1
The low totals really perform well in week No. 2, going a solid 12-5-1,
while the middle grouping is right at 50%. The higher totals also do
well in regards to the over, but with just four games in the sample
size, it's a bit difficult to get excited about. Week Three Overall: 32-32 34.5 points or less: 4-3 35 to 39.5 points: 19-22 40 to 44.5 points: 9-7
The totals come back to earth a little bit in week No. 3, while the higher totals go over more often than not once again. Week Four Overall: 31-31-2 34.5 points or less: 4-7-1 35 to 39.5 points: 26-22-1 40 to 44.5 points: 1-2
In week No. 4 we see complete reversals in all three categories, as the
lower totals and the higher totals both go under more often than not,
while the 35 to 39.5 grouping sees more games go over than not.
Now to look at the overall breakdown: Overall 34.5 points or less: 48-35-2 57.8% 35 to 39.5 points: 76-74-1 50.7% 40 to 44.5 points: 13-10-0 56.5%
Going over the extremely low-totaled games has been the best bet over
the past four years, hitting at nearly a 58% clip, closely followed by
the high totals, with the mid-range totals in the 50% range. Bypassing
the final week will increase your winning percentage greatly.
Those looking for an additional edge can compare the coaching trends
discussed in 2012 NFL Coaches and Preseason Betting and look for those
situations where the trends coincide, which should give you more of an
edge.
damn thomas i havent kept track of OU over the years. im just throwing the all unders out there cause it really seemed more preseason games went under rather than over
damn thomas i havent kept track of OU over the years. im just throwing the all unders out there cause it really seemed more preseason games went under rather than over
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