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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: ALCS - NLS - World Series
KeyElement
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#1
Posted: 10/13/2012 8:36:01 AM

Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI

2012 Playoffs: 8-5-2, +8.95 Units

All Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice”

You boys are going to do what you want to do, so I am probably wasting my breath, but anyone that plays every side and/or total the rest of the way should not kid himself. He is nothing short of a degenerate gambler. Just read the board and look at how many fools went belly up yesterday. The ALCS, NLCS and World Series will present very few truly opportunistic chances to win a well computed or thought out bet. Face the facts. That really high line on Sabathia never came down yesterday because the smart money was not jumping the Orioles, the smart money simply was not playing. The Nationals were clearly the better side of the other game and if you played first five innings you got the win you deserved. Anyone that had the Cardinals FG simply got very lucky; it was not a brilliant pick at all. Maybe the Under in New York and the Over in Washington were solid picks but most of the board did not play the totals. What happens now is going to be very difficult to assess. All remaining games will be played in open air, cold weather venues, after sundown mostly, for the benefit of national television. The fans are going to be bundled up in parkas and the players won’t be wearing much less. Between innings pitchers will be in heavy jackets, with scarves around their necks and heavy gloves on their hands. This is not Arlington in August we are talking about. Baseball is a hot weather, loose muscle, sport and an uncomfortable body does not perform at its peak. Caution, a lot of it, is called for this time of year and forcing a play on every game is nothing short of foolish. If you turned a profit up to this point be conservative and tuck most of it away. If you are in the hole, don’t try to get it back with what remains of the playoff schedule. I know I won’t have much the rest of the way. I made too much money and take my handicapping too seriously to just foolishly insist on having a little something on every game I watch. Tonight’s game is a darn good example. The line has the Yankees at the commonly perceived home field advantage and that is probably about where it should be. If Fister and Pettitte are on their game you could have an “E-Z under” or one big inning by either team could create an “E-Z over”. Take your pick, flip a coin, but if you read a hundred posts today, with analysis, you won’t find three of them tomorrow that were spot on. Not three.  

BOL

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#2
Posted: 10/13/2012 9:04:20 AM
GREAT READ
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#3
Posted: 10/13/2012 9:06:23 AM
you can't base whether or not a pick was solid or not based on the outcome of the one game that was bet on.  someone as smart as you should know this.

you mention line movement as your example for where the smart money was in the AL matchup and that it wasn't there. However, you knew Cards were the play yesterday and the line movement late in the day agreed with you.  And now you are saying it was a bad pick?

You have a lot of good information and picks if people can sort thru the BS 







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KeyElement
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#4
Posted: 10/13/2012 9:30:24 AM
WTF do you mean, "late line movement agreed with you"? That line stayed nearly flat all day, and I didn't "KNOW" the cards were the play. At +130 I might have pulled the trigger for the value, but it never got anywhere near that.

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#5
Posted: 10/13/2012 9:33:09 AM
I got it @ 125 and it closed at 114.  Your post (and Silly's) helped me pull the trigger b/c I was on the fence

Nats didn't give that game way.  Cards came back and BEAT them.  
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#6
Posted: 10/13/2012 9:39:52 AM
good luck key!
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#7
Posted: 10/13/2012 9:42:58 AM
is every comeback in baseball a lucky one?  are runs scored in the 2nd half of the game any less valuable than runs scored early on?   wtf are you talking about?  You're one of the smartest guys here Key.  I'm disappointed
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#8
Posted: 10/13/2012 9:53:50 AM
Nats are "lucky" that Gio didn't give up more runs than he did.  He gave away 12!!! free passes in the last 2 games against STL.  I don't care how good a pitcher he is. but that kind of garbage pitching will comeback to haunt you every time.

Be sure to incorporate everything if you are going to base whether a play was solid or not based on that ONE game.  Which you and I both know you shouldn't do.
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KeyElement
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#9
Posted: 10/13/2012 9:55:18 AM
Look, late comebacks are great for the guys on the comeback side, and I will grant the Cardinals they deserved to win. The point was, going forward you can't handicap garbage like that and late comebacks from 6 runs down are very rare, that's all. It will be common to have leans instead of plays from now on and if that helps you, along with si1ly's opinion, I am very glad it did. I was not looking for late money coming in on the Cardinals to verify or condone my play, I was looking for greater value in the odds. I don't really care which side the public or pros are on, as long as I am getting the value I think I deserve. thanks for the compliments and, BOL
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KeyElement
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#10
Posted: 10/13/2012 9:58:27 AM
BTW, I don't really understand the line movement on the Yankees so far, unless it is all the retired old farts down here in the Sun Belt that bet the Yankees daily, but the Tigers are looking better and if the Yankees continue to climb the ladder I may pull the trigger after all. Not saying, just saying, well, maybe.
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#11
Posted: 10/13/2012 10:59:34 AM
I understand you were only leaning towards the value on the Cards, and I felt the game should have been closer to 50/50 odds.  However, I already had a future on the Cards and wasn't sure if another play was validated.  But when I see you and Silly on the same page (leaning or playing) that's probably a strong play imo esp if I'm feeling the same way.  And I try to put my money in situations that have value, regardless of where it may already be at. But just b/c the Cards had to comeback in that particular game doesn't make it a bad play. Like you said, there is no way to know that beforehand. If Wainwright would have been just average last night, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. 

 I highly respect what you do or I wouldn't even be in here.


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#12
Posted: 10/13/2012 12:14:35 PM
 Nice Season
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KktdocT
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#13
Posted: 10/13/2012 12:24:40 PM
GL, mate.
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#14
Posted: 10/13/2012 12:43:22 PM
Hey Key Element, another point that I believe is being missed is that the yankees are playing their 4th playoff game in a row. That has never happen in baseball playoffs. Normally you would've 2-2-1 format for 5 game series with a day off in between for traveling. and with 2-3-2 format you have a day off for traveling as well. Your thoughts on this? Even if Detroit loses today, Yankees will be playing 5 playoff games in a row tomorrow. 
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#15
Posted: 10/13/2012 1:01:03 PM
BOL next season Key, solid season, and your perspective turns out as +240 unit through out the season, let the numbers speak for itself  hope you'll be back here next season, and have another solid season.
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#16
Posted: 10/13/2012 1:02:50 PM
great post, keyelement.
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KeyElement
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#17
Posted: 10/13/2012 1:27:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdukes0004:

Hey Key Element, another point that I believe is being missed is that the yankees are playing their 4th playoff game in a row. That has never happen in baseball playoffs. Normally you would've 2-2-1 format for 5 game series with a day off in between for traveling. and with 2-3-2 format you have a day off for traveling as well. Your thoughts on this? Even if Detroit loses today, Yankees will be playing 5 playoff games in a row tomorrow. 
Well, the line is not open yet but we are probably looking at Scherzer-Kuroda, right? Chances are very good I would like Scherzer in that situation anyway, but if the Yankees are playing a fifth in five days that might add fuel to the fire. We shall see.
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KeyElement
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#18
Posted: 10/13/2012 1:47:15 PM
I wish that aneur stood for aneurism and this guys would explode.

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#19
Posted: 10/13/2012 2:17:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

I got it @ 125 and it closed at 114.  Your post (and Silly's) helped me pull the trigger b/c I was on the fence

Nats didn't give that game way.  Cards came back and BEAT them.  
Agree 100%. Even with a 6-run lead with my bet, I figured the Cards might cut into the lead if Gio didn't bring his A game.
The middle relievers for the Cards gave their offense a chance to do what they've done for 2 yrs now: timely hitting. The better, more experienced team won.

Besides wishing I had a 1st 5 inning's bet, obviously, I had soo many chances to hedge out on it with that big lead. I choked as bad as the team did by freezing up when my live betting needed me most! 


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#20
Posted: 10/13/2012 2:20:45 PM
Great post Key. I primarily play series bets and will only sprinkle in the occasional game bet in the playoffs.  Had Giants and Tigers last round, talk about reversals of fortune that both fortunately worked out. Had i played individual games i probably lose units in each series. Had a friend call me and asked me for a play in each game. Told him I was playing nothing but gun to my head Yanks under and Washington. Washington was the dead nuts play as you stated and in this year of the endless blown saves it seems, one of the most brutal occurs. Keep up the good stuff!
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#21
Posted: 10/13/2012 5:13:23 PM
I got that toal in Wash.at 6.5,easy over choice for me,did a tiny play on Balt.,b ut was pretty sure it was a loser,just hoping the Yankees would lose,did like the benching of ARod though,to funny on that.
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#22
Posted: 10/13/2012 5:22:58 PM
love the play good luck
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#23
Posted: 10/13/2012 5:40:31 PM
Great read, wise words man.
Sometimes you need someone to post something other than biased stats and insight and just tell it like it is and that it's too risky to bet on.
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#24
Posted: 10/13/2012 6:02:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by greengrocer:

love the play good luck

Yea I love the play too.    garbage I sure hope they win today.
What part of his pick did you most agree with most? 
I get the feeling that you're a "cliff notes" kind of guy, probably don't plow through a lot of novels cover to cover.

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KeyElement
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#25
Posted: 10/13/2012 7:17:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iceman67:


Yea I love the play too.    garbage I sure hope they win today.
What part of his pick did you most agree with most? 
I get the feeling that you're a "cliff notes" kind of guy, probably don't plow through a lot of novels cover to cover.

No wonder you are the ICEMAN. That post is COLD man.

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