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Author: [Nascar] Topic: F1 Chinese Grand Prix
3825 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:13:03 PM
Looking ahead to this weekends race, some areas i'm lookiing at . . . Vettel to win at +450, are we getting good value there ? . . . .will Perez and Sauber be over priced ? . . . has Mercedes made improvement to their handling for race pace?

Obviously,  Sauber got it right with the aero and set up for race pace, their chassis is very good with the tires.  They read the situation correctly, Ross Brawn's team did not.  I think Sauber is in tough to maintain their current form, the better funded teams will figure it out.  Same thing for Red Bull and it's little problem with not having a F Duct.

I might be looking to fade Perez in a driver matchup this weekend, pending on who he gets matched up with.  Opposite for Michael and Nico.

Massa is a mess, but it is still Scuderia. 

Lotus has been surprising.. The frenchie seems to have bad luck follow him around the track.  I will stay away until he can at least finish a race.  The Ice Man, a different story.  He seems the be the most likely driver not from mclaren, red bull, or ferrari to win a race.

Like Sauber, Williams also got the set up correct for race pace, but I think they also get passed along the way by better funded teams.  I think Maldonado is fade material anyways.

Regardless, I wont be making any plays until I can at least see a 12 hour forecast for Qually or Race.  Rain is in the schedule for all 3 days.  Nothing big, and Sunday just says "AM Showers" . 

I will likely play Vettel or Button for Pole at better than +400.  Won't make a race play until after Q3 and I can see a short term forecast.
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#2
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:17:10 PM
I see Vettel at +290. If this race goes dry it's McLaren that wins IMO. Love your F1 and MLb threads my friend. I did notice the OVEr lean in a 1-0 Tex/Sea yawner though. lol

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#3
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:18:28 PM
Love the Chinese GP as far as late night viewing in primetime. GL
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3825 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#4
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:39:06 PM
ha, played "over" last night, but at least i leaned "under" tonight . . . back to back 1-0 games in texas?  could it happen?

i think the +290 price on vettel is for the championship.
i'm seeing +450 in the futures section and +423 in the F1 area on 5 dimes.

I think these long gaps between races will take a while to gauge.  how much did red bull, ferrari, and mercedes accomplish since Sepang?  I'm not sure.  We'll see in the next ten days.
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#5
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:40:10 PM
hopefully the Canucks play saturday night, that will make for a nice doubleheader.
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#6
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:41:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 3825:

ha, played "over" last night, but at least i leaned "under" tonight . . . back to back 1-0 games in texas?  could it happen?

i think the +290 price on vettel is for the championship.
i'm seeing +450 in the futures section and +423 in the F1 area on 5 dimes.

I think these long gaps between races will take a while to gauge.  how much did red bull, ferrari, and mercedes accomplish since Sepang?  I'm not sure.  We'll see in the next ten days.

LOL, you're right. No opinion for me so far.
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#7
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:37:13 PM
looks like 5 Dimes has pulled all action for Pole.  
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#8
Posted: 4/14/2012 4:35:18 PM
Mercedes all around with Hamilton representing Mclaren in second surrounded by Rosberg(pole) and Schumacher. It's clear to me that Red Bull has lost all dominance and Mercedes is only being beat by rain so far. Looking forward to plays on this tonight from Myself and you 3825...
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#9
Posted: 4/14/2012 4:37:03 PM
Five-place grid penalty for Lewis... 
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#10
Posted: 4/14/2012 4:38:51 PM
And Hamilton still the fav  This GP looks wide open with value betting everywhere.

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#11
Posted: 4/14/2012 6:10:50 PM
Ross Brawn's team has a huge advantage in practice and qually because they can use their F duct at any point when Nico or Michael are not touching the brake pedal.  That changes on Sunday, when they only get it's benefit within the DRS zone.  In addition, I am not convinced that Mercedes will have race pace with their current set up, and they have certainly been bitten by bad luck.

And what do you make of the Swiss team, Sauber looked like a poor man's Force India in Qually before this weekend, and they previously had pretty decent race pace due their ability to manage the tyres for longer stints and the ability to maintain decent pace as the tyres go bad. 

Alonso has an uphill battle ahead of him, but i think it's fair to say that given equal circumstances, He is the best driver on the grid.  I'm seeing a matchup with Vettel on 5 Dimes with the German favored, I'm not touching Alonso in that matchup.  IMO, Vettel is the second best driver on the grid.  I think Vettel wins that matchup.

I haven't researched Red Bull's qually strategy yet, it appears they were trying to save tyres and thought vettel was safe in Q2.  If Red Bull thinks they are still behind McLaren, then tyre strategy is one possible way they could make up the gap.

Hamilton won this pig last season, and Button continues to out perform expectations.  Hard to bet against McLaren with dry conditions.

I will not be playing Mercedes to win this tonight, for me to back them for the top spot on the podium, I need to see them prove they have solved their race pace issues.  And I'm not really sold on Nico being capable of pulling a victory any ways.

If so tough to imagine Sauber on top either, but you can't dismiss their chances based on Sepang and their qually effort at Shanghai.  Another tough call.  I love Perez, but not sold on Kobayashi just yet.  Even the Scuderia said they didn't think they could hold off the young Mexican in Malaysia.

This race is wide open, very wide open.   Will wait to get a weather forecast later tonight, before making ay plays.  Need to read up in Autosport and see what they are saying in China.
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#12
Posted: 4/14/2012 11:48:02 PM
wide open tonight, really can't even comprehend how this will turn out.
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#13
Posted: 4/15/2012 1:00:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by madshooter72:

wide open tonight, really can't even comprehend how this will turn out.

 going small
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#14
Posted: 4/15/2012 2:39:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by madshooter72:

wide open tonight, really can't even comprehend how this will turn out.


I cannot recall a race of this nature.  my friends in Charlotte think Mercedes has race pace.  I'm going to spend money to be convinced  I will not back mercedes tonight.
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#15
Posted: 4/15/2012 2:41:41 AM
Perez +145 over Kobayashi for play #1
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#16
Posted: 4/15/2012 2:46:02 AM
in a wide open race of this nature, in a season where ferrari can win round two . . . . i cannot resist taking the young german at +2300

Vettel to win at 23-1
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#17
Posted: 4/15/2012 2:54:47 AM
Kobayashi NOT in Top 6 at -115 for play #3
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#18
Posted: 4/15/2012 12:46:15 PM
Thought the race started before 3 am. Must have been thinking back to when I was in Vancouver. At any rate, I'm glad I stayed away, probably would have backed Hamilton. Looks like you backed the wrong young German 3825 as Mercedes certainly was for real finishing 1-2-3 with McLaren 2 and 3. Tough luck on the Perez match but Kobayashi NOT T6 at -115 must have seemed like stealing. See you in Bahrain...

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#19
Posted: 4/15/2012 3:44:45 PM
Nico and Mercedes proved me wrong.  Oh well, this was round 3.  This is shaping up to be an incredible season, i'm guessing both Red Bull and the Scuderia will have upgrades that should make this a four horse race.


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#20
Posted: 4/18/2012 2:30:50 AM
I generally just tune into F1 to watch a couple minutes of the spectacle, but I was glued to this race. I may have to start watching more regularly if the racing stays the same.
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#21
Posted: 4/19/2012 1:10:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by yourpixelarmy:

I generally just tune into F1 to watch a couple minutes of the spectacle, but I was glued to this race. I may have to start watching more regularly if the racing stays the same.


you're picking a good season to tune in, assuming red bull and ferrari improve, this good be a hard fought season when you just don't know who will win each race.
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