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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: April 13 Mariners vs Oakland
3825 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 4/13/2012 5:34:35 PM
took another loss on Thursday to even my season record at 2-2.

We now get a 6.5 total tonight with heavy juice on the under.  Felix sits at -152, or -105 for a -1 play.

I won't read anymore into the Mariners shelling of Colon than I am willing to read into Colon's domination in Tokyo.  Both are small sample sizes.  That being said, Felix is the better pitcher, and thus he is most likely to survive the odd scheduling that has both pitchers facing the opponent 3 times in the first 9 games of the season.

Some Felix notes . . . he has proven over and over than he is a "big stage" pitcher.   On the flip side, he has also proven that his velocity is down this season into the low 90's.  That makes him more prone to suffering WHEN he isn't sharp.  When he's at 95 mph, he can survive be less than sharp.  When he's at 91-92, those pitches will get hit, as we saw last Saturday night in Oakland.  Felix or more than capable of pitching well and winning games with a 92 mph fastball.  But no pitcher is sharp every outing.  Food for thought.

Moving forward, laying 20 cents to back an 6.5 is tough unless I can project both pitchers to be solid.  I expect Felix to be solid, not quite as sure with Colon.  Even though the Mariners offense took a holiday in Texas, it is better than last season. 

As of now, I'm leaning towards backing Felix on the ML or the -1 line.
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#2
Posted: 4/13/2012 5:46:31 PM
Mariners Lineup
LF  Figgins
2B  Ackley
RF  Ichiro
1B  Smoak
3B  Seager
DH  Montero
CF  Saunders
C   Olivo
SS  Ryan

Also, George Sherrill won't be screwing up an Under or Mariners ML play, nor will he help an Over or Oakland ML play, he has been sent to the DL.  Charlie Fursbsh has been recalled from Tacoma
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#3
Posted: 4/13/2012 5:48:03 PM

Appreciate all that you do with the Mariner games 3825.

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#4
Posted: 4/13/2012 6:59:46 PM
Tim Timmons is the scheduled home plate umpire
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#5
Posted: 4/13/2012 7:03:58 PM
Oakland Lineup
2B  Weeks
LF  Crisp
RF  Reddick
CF  Cespedes
DH  Smith
C   Suzuki
1B  Barton
3B  Donaldson
SS  Penington

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#6
Posted: 4/13/2012 7:05:46 PM
i'll take a shot with the mariners tonight. bol 2 ya man.
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#7
Posted: 4/13/2012 7:38:29 PM
I love the Under here. Felix to shut the weak A's line-up at home!
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#8
Posted: 4/13/2012 7:40:48 PM
,gL
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#9
Posted: 4/13/2012 7:59:18 PM

A's are a hell of a strong play tonight.

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#10
Posted: 4/13/2012 8:42:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds:

A's are a hell of a strong play tonight.



How so?  Educate us.
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#11
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:17:47 PM
Mariners ML for me   1.2 Units at -150
Season:  2-2  -0.12 Units
Average Price:  -106
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#12
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:21:14 PM
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#13
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:22:25 PM
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#14
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:34:09 PM
there are some interesting prices on 5 dimes for the totals
Over 5.5  +120
Over 6.0 -125
Over 6.5  +110
Over 7.0  +145
Over 7.5  +175

The Under 5.5 has a corresponding -140, but i'm guessing they won't grade it, but if you like the Over , the 5.5 offers value if they grade it.
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#15
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:40:50 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by 3825:



How so?  Educate us.

As and M's fan you should know never take this team coming off any kind of extended road trip. Colon before the season wears him down has very good stuff and has already shown this year how easily he mowed the M's bats.  This game will be close, probably tied going into the 7th and you'll be laying -150 while I'll be grabbing +143 or better.  Coin flip IMO.

 

 

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#16
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:43:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds:

As and M's fan you should know never take this team coming off any kind of extended road trip. Colon before the season wears him down has very good stuff and has already shown this year how easily he mowed the M's bats.  This game will be close, probably tied going into the 7th and you'll be laying -150 while I'll be grabbing +143 or better.  Coin flip IMO.

 

r u blind ? colon gave up a

100 runs last time out vs this same team

 

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#17
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:45:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds:

As and M's fan you should know never take this team coming off any kind of extended road trip. Colon before the season wears him down has very good stuff and has already shown this year how easily he mowed the M's bats.  This game will be close, probably tied going into the 7th and you'll be laying -150 while I'll be grabbing +143 or better.  Coin flip IMO.

 

Would agree if I rated Colon and Felix has a toss up, but I rate Felix as a very good "big stage" pitcher.  He excels in these types of games.  While Colon could be great, I think it's highly probable that Felix will be great tonight.  For me, I see value in backing Felix in a big stage game vs a weak hitting team at -150.   Give me any other Mariner on the mound in this game with these prices and I very well might be on the A's for the exact reasons you state.  Good stuff.

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#18
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:48:46 PM

r u blind ? colon gave up a

100 runs last time out vs this same team

One start don't mean garbage, he also shut them down the start before that going 8 inning and giving up 3 hits.  I don't think the M's got the ball out of the infield that game.  Are you blind?  Wake up cause your're sleeping.

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#19
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:53:57 PM
5 Dimes still has the same screwy prices up for the 5.5 total.
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#20
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:57:10 PM
-140 and a +120 take back seems normal to me

good luck tonight JR
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#21
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:58:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by diondimucci:

-140 and a +120 take back seems normal to me

good luck tonight JR


Exactly, that leads me to believe they might actually grade it.
Why take over 6.5 at +110 when you can buy over 5.5 at +125
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#22
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:00:34 PM
oh sorry, i see what u mean now, stupid me
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#23
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:53:30 PM
felix is not making me look very good . . . 4 of the last 6 guys reach base and the 7th guy hit the ball real hard into foul territory
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#24
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:11:01 PM
whats wrong with this guy? his velocity seems down this year
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