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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Overvalued/Undervalued Teams and a Whole lot more...................................
theclaw
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#1
Posted: 4/28/2012 11:11:38 AM

Hey boys and girls it's playoff time, gotta love it !!

Let's get down to bussiness and check in with my "key stat battles" that have a high correlation with winning basketball games.

Overvalued/Undervalued Teams.................................................

1. Lakers +1.71

2. OKC +1.48

3. Boston +1.12

4. Heat +.78

5. Denver +.53

6. Bulls +.31

7. Dallas +.14

8. Jazz -.35

9. Spurs -.4

10. 76ers -.41

10. Hawks -.41

12. Pacers -.55

13. Magic -.62

14. Clips -.76

15. Grizz -.81

and the m ost overvalued team in the playoffs........................................

16. NY Knicks -.1.12

Largest value mismatch.....................Heat over Knicks by 1.9

Last season I posted my largest value mismatch of Mavs over Portland in round 1, when the 1st round consensus upset by those on the site and in Vegas was Portland over the Mavs, well  the Mavs crushed the Trailblazers 6-0 ATS.

Seems many on the site have fallen hook, line and sinker for the Knicks the  largest value mismatch again this season.

Smallest mismatch by a favorite..........................Lakers by .12 over Nuggets 

Dogs with better value....................................................

Clips by.05, Jazz by.05

 

Field Goal Percantage Differential ...................................

The team that wins this battle wins roughly 79

% of all games.

1. OKC +4.4

2. C's +4.1

3. Heat +3.5

4. Bulls + 3.1

5. Spurs +2.6

6. 76ers +2.1

7. Lakers +2

7. Denver +2

9. Hawks +1

10. Mavs+.8

11. Clipps +.8

12. Grizz +.3

12. Pacers +.3

12. Jazz +.3

15. Knicks +.1

16. Magic -.8

Largest FG% Mismatch..............................................

OKC over Mavs by 3.6

Last season the largest FG% mismatch was C's over Knicks BY 6.7  and a 4-0 series win for C's. 2-2ATS.

Smallest mismatch by fav.............................................................

Lakers/Denver  --- even

Dogs Better ........................................................................

Clipps over Grizz by .5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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theclaw
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#2
Posted: 4/28/2012 11:26:46 AM

Adjusted Point Margin based on each teams actual play on the court..........................................................

This can be used as a power ratings, last season when a 1 point difference between teams produced a 9-3 series winners.

1. Bulls  +8.41

2. OKC  +7.68

3. Spurs +6.8

4. Heat +6.78

5. 76ers +3.79, huge drop-off from top 4 teams down to number 5.

6. C's +3.52

7. Denver +3.43

8. Lakers +3.11

9. Hawks +2.99

10. Pacers +2.75

11. Knicks +1.98

12. Clipps +1.74

13. Grizz +1.19

14. Mavs +1.14

15. Jazz +.35

16. Magic +.18

Largest mismatch ...............................................................

Bulls over 76ers by 4.62 pts.

Last season largest mismatch was Bulls over Pacers, Bulls did struggle a bit but got a 4-1 series win but just 2-3ATS.

I would expect a bounce back ATS  by this method this season.

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theclaw
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#3
Posted: 4/28/2012 11:32:36 AM

Forgot this in above post..................

Smallest mismatch by a fav.............................

C's over Hawks by .53

Dogs better than Fav........................................................

Clipps over Grizz by .55

Denver over Lakers by .32

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vetdrm
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#4
Posted: 4/28/2012 11:38:58 AM
gl on your plays good stuff

jus sticking with a couple o/u' s  today
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theclaw
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#5
Posted: 4/28/2012 11:54:16 AM

When we add up all 5 "key stat battles" , the largest mismatch of any series is...............................................

OKC over Mavs, ave mismatch ranking in each stat 1.8.

Heat over Knicks, ave rank 2.6

Spurs over Jazz, ave ranking 3.6

Bulls over 76ers, ave ranking 4.6

The info strongly suggest the OKC Thunder are going to hand a arsewhipping to the Mavs.

Ride the Thunder ...........................................................

Last season the ave rankings of the top 2 seeds in each conference................................

Bulls , ave rank of 1.4, won series 4-1

Heat , ave rank of 2.8, won series 4-1

Lakers , ave rank of 5.4, won series 4-2

Spurs were dead last and did not finish better than 6th of 8 1st round match-ups  with ave rank of 6.6.

Last season the info strongly suggeted the Spurs were easily the closest 1st round match-up with the Grizz and the power of the info proved correct, as the largest mismatch won 4-1 and the smallest mismatch was taken out by a 8th seed.

 

The info also suggest the red-hot Pacers are not very good, their best finish was 8th with 4 of 5 stats being a 10th or worst ranking, the info strongly suggest the Pacers are not beating the top teams in the East.

It also suggest the Grizz are not the team everyone thinks they are, they were fortunate to play a weak statistical no. 1 seed last season, and those weak no.1 seeds rarely do well, and they did not.

The info suggest the 2 possible 1st round upsets would be............................Clipps over Grizz and Denver over Lakers, although not by enough for me to make a big call on those but, be warned.........................

Good Luck guys, we'll see how the info works-out this season.........................................................................................

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#6
Posted: 4/28/2012 6:20:52 PM
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theclaw
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#7
Posted: 4/28/2012 8:02:32 PM

Well, well well, looks like those Knicks lived up-to the  most overvalued team.

That's 2-0 ATS for our largest mismatch's today, with the Thunder up next, I'd expect a 3-0 ATS day.............................

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theclaw
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#8
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:08:04 AM

The Thunder got damn lucky to win that game, but hey let's take it. I will expect the Thunder to play much better next game.

Generally when the road team gets 1 good oppurtunity to win a game on the road they need to grab it, Mavs had their oppurtunity last night and failed.

Our largest mismatches was pretty much dead-on after day 1, with all 3 teams winning SU and 2 of 3 covering the spread.

The info was also right on the money regarding the Pacers, the red-hot team many thought could do some damage in the playoffs.

Huge fav in the playoffs are genrally reserved for the monster teams not teams like the Pacers with their pathetically weak .3 FG% differential and their very small 3.3 point margin, indications the Pacers aren't on the top level of teams.

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#9
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:37:48 PM
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theclaw
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#10
Posted: 4/30/2012 8:55:54 AM

Hey we got just a bit lucky but one of our dogs broke through in game 1.

The info was deadly in game 1's, including calling the red-hot Pacers not very good, was off only on Denver and OKC not covering.

But Dogs only need a split in games 1/2 on the road, we see if Denver can get that split or at least a cover.

I like Miami to win tonight but don't like backing big favs after huge wins on the spread and I like OKC to roll in tonight's game.

I'm to busy now to post all my picks and track them but they are available in the NBA Playoff Contest, now 4-1 ATS using the above info............................................................... 

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theclaw
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#11
Posted: 5/6/2012 12:54:50 PM

The largest value mismatch continues to roll. Now goes to 9-0 ATS the past 2 years in the 1st round.

In 2010, I posted Suns over Portland, with most here calling the Suns a paper tiger, they rolled-up a 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS.

That brings the 3 year total to 13-2 ATS in the 1st round and currently on a 11-0 ATS run as the Suns won and covered the final 2 games. 

Will the run continue today ?

I'd be careful backing Heat today, the line was adjusted up fairly large, ussually a good indication things may be ready to reverse themselves. The Heat opened game 1 at home -8.5 and now open this game at the same -8.5.

OKC the largest mismatch across all 5 key stat battles swept the Mavs much as expected, although they did dominate as m uch as I would of anticipated, going 2-2 ATS. I did have my largest bet of the playoffs thus far on them in game 4.

All my picks can be found in the NBA Playoff contest, where I've been on quite a tear using the above info as my guide, 11-3 ATS to date.

Today I like Philly with a small bet and a best bet on the OVER, a strong considerartion for my totals play of the playoffs. Interesting that most are on the under.

Good Luck today guys......................................................

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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#12
Posted: 5/6/2012 1:01:18 PM
Nice run
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theclaw
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#13
Posted: 5/7/2012 8:37:14 AM

As much as I expected the Heat did not do well.

 Quess what boys, we have the same large line adjustment on tonight's Spurs/Jazz game.

Beware of backing the Spurs tonight, what happened in those first 3 games has nothing to do with this game. This game will take on it's own personality.

Possible out-right upset in the making.

Thus far these large line adjustments are 2-0ATS, totals are 1-3

I did lose my big totals play on the over in the 76ers/Bulls game by 1 pt in this same spot. I was hoping the Bulls went for a uncontested lay-up on that final possesion to go over but they threw-up a bad 3 pt shot.

Tommorrow we have a huge line adjustment in the Indy/Magic gam e total. The largest I can ever remmember seeing.   I will be grabing the over.

We also have a large line adjustment in the Clips/Grizz game tonight, I'll grab the over there as well as long as the money does not move the line to much against me.

We have 1 of our 2 possible upset teams  in control, I see the Clips winning again tonight.

Good luck tonight everyone...........................................

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theclaw
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#14
Posted: 5/7/2012 10:52:45 PM

Another large linemovent adjustment does it again, goes to 3-1 ATS. Actually I made a mistake in the above post as OKC did win game 4 with a large linemovement adjustment.

On the over in the late game based on a large linemovement adjustment down to 182.5.................................

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theclaw
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#15
Posted: 5/7/2012 11:19:42 PM
Looks like the over is pretty strong after the 1st quarter, on pace for 232 pts.
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#16
Posted: 5/8/2012 8:40:02 PM
Love the analysis good work brotha.....do your rules follow through to the next round or are these mostly for the first round
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theclaw
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#17
Posted: 5/9/2012 10:04:41 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by 1TimeLucky1:

Love the analysis good work brotha.....do your rules follow through to the next round or are these mostly for the first round

YES, will have the 2cd round coming up soon.

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theclaw
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#18
Posted: 5/9/2012 10:10:41 AM

Well guys, that's 4 straight winners using the large line movement adjustments.

Was a bit lucky with the over in Clips/Grizz game, needed OT, hey when it rains it pours and right now guys it's coming down by the barrels. I'm now 15-4 ATS in the NBA playoff contest using the above info.

I did miss one on the LA/Denver game, would of taken the over for another winner, unfortunate for me I got caught up talking to my friend and lost track of the time.

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theclaw
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#19
Posted: 5/9/2012 11:02:59 AM

I did make a mistake in the above post on adjusted point margin, the largest mismatch was not Bulls over 76ers, but OKC over Mavs by 6.54. Bulls was actually only the 4th largest.

You can see that by simply subtracting the 2 teams numbers.

OKC finished first in 2 of 5 key stat battles, 2cd in 2 of 5 and 3rd in the other for an ave of 1.8 per key stat battle. This was the largest overall mismatch with the 5 stats.

Interesting that of the top 2 seeds the closest match-up was Bulls/76ers with a ave of 4.6 which I posted above. One of the reasons I took the 76ers in game 4 missing  2 of their best players.

Last season of the top 2 seeds the closest match-up was Spurs/Memphis with an ave of 6.6, the Spurs finished no better than 6th in any of the 5 key stat battles.

If there's one thing you want to learn from this thread, let it be the power of the single most important stat in basketball, FG% DIFFERENTIAL.

If you want to seperate the contenders from the pretenders look no further than FG% DIFF.

The largest mismatch wasOKC over Mavs and  a 4-0 sweep by the Thunder, surprised a lot of people. The largest mismatch last season was C's over Knicks, another 4-0 sweep, that's 8-0 run for the largest FG% DIFF mistmatch.

In 2010 it was a 4-2 series win for the Suns over Portland, with damn near everyone on the site calling the Suns a paper tiger.

This will tell you the power of FG% DIFF. Last season the closest match-up was........................................................

NO.1 seeded Spurs 1.9% over Grizz 1.4% = .5%, ranking dead-last in the 8 1st round match-ups. This was the closest match-up, should not of been any big surprise when the Grizz pulled the upset.

Because of that upset many now want to jump on the Grizz this season, by looking at their FG% DIFF of a very weak .3 diff which ranks tied for 12th, 13th and 14th would have told one to beware of such over-reacting to last seasons upset win.

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