Los Angeles at Boston (06/17/2008)

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Author: [The Archives] Topic: Los Angeles at Boston (06/17/2008)
CMJohnson1 PM CMJohnson1
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:17:02 PM
Although I am still kicking myself for allowing my heart to get in the way of an easy bet on Sunday night, I am more than ready for this game.  Right from the start of this series, I had a strong feeling of how the games would end up.  The Lakers won Game 3 just barely and looked like crap doing it.  Any Lakers fan will agree with me on that one.  Both teams came out struggling to shoot and it was a turnover filled game.  That was when they flew from Boston to LA after a Sunday night game for a Tuesday night Game 3.  We have the same situation here, flying from LA to Boston after Sunday for a Tuesday night game.  There is no doubt that the fatigue for the Celtics is starting to show.  26 games in the playoffs is an absolutely crazy amount. 

Perkins will more than likely miss this game as well, however Ray Allen is more than ready to go, as the illness with his son has improved.  Rondo has gotten plenty of rest the past couple days for his ankle, only playing 14 and 17 minutes in the past couple games.  He has continuously played much better at home, and allows the offense to run at its peak performance level.  Pierce's knee is about at the same level of Tiger Woods' knee, you know it hurts like a son of a girl but it's not going to affect his play one bit.  KG sucked in Game 5, mainly because of the quick fouls he picked up.  Those calls will not go against him in this one, and he should be able to assert his dominance early on.  He has always been one to step it up amongst criticism, which is what he is getting right now.

The major reason for the Lakers being able to hold on in Game 5 was the extent of the lead they were able to get in that 1st quarter.  KG had the fouls, and Boston was forced to go with a 4-guard lineup essentially...absolutely murdering their chances for rebounds.  Gasol was able to move much more freely in the middle, and his stats reflected that.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Big Baby play this game if Perkins sits again.  He doesn't have the quickness of a Gasol, but he can certainly bang him around inside.  Kobe has still been shut down for the most part, only shooting 14-40 in the past couple of games.  Now that they are in Boston, the bench will need to step up, something they were not even close to doing in the first two games of the series.

As I said before, I have predicted almost exactly every game of this series, they only difference being I didn't see the Celtics being down by 24 and coming back to have the greatest comeback in Finals history.  Before the series, I said they would take this one in 6.  I have to stick with that argument.  The crowd is jacked up, as they should be.  KG will look to dominate inside early on, like he did in Games 1 and 2. 

The spread for this game is incredibly off, as it has been for every game just about.  The only game where the spread was pretty close was Game 3.  The Celtics were getting 7 points in LA, and had a damn good chance to win all 3 games...the Lakers did not look solid at all except for the 1st quarter of Game 5 and 1st half of Game 4.  You would expect the Celtics to be at least as high favorites as the Lakers in this situation would you not?  Doesn't matter though.  If you want to win money, put it on the Celtics and the Under...and just count up the profits after the game.

Celtics are 7-0 ATS vs. the Lakers this season.
Celtics dominate at home during the playoffs.
Lakers bench goes down considerably on the road.
Rondo plays 10x better at home.
Pierce, KG, and Allen will NOT let the Lakers take this game.


Line just recently moving up to -5 and total moving down to 191...I trust you all know what to do!!!  Don't freakin overthink this one like I did in Game 5. Remember....

"THE NBA IS VERY HARD TO PREDICT"  - Jeff Van Gundy



CMJohnson1 PM CMJohnson1
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:22:56 PM
I am betting "only" half of my bankroll on this game, just in case something completely fucked up happens such as the referees giving us a whistle enema for more ratings.


2 Team Parlay Bet Details (reference #115925122)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics Under 191 
Basketball - NBA Lines NBA CHAMPIONSHIP - Total  
Tue@9:05p Best of Seven (2-3-2) Boston Celtics leads the series 3-2
 
Boston Celtics -5 (-105)
 
Risk Details
Risked US$ 2569.00 to win US$ 7006.36

CMJohnson1 PM CMJohnson1
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:24:27 PM
Prediction:

Celtics  29   Lakers  20  1st quarter

Celtics  52   Lakers  42  Halftime

Celtics  98   Lakers  84  Final


GREEN 17!!  BEAT LA!!
Robem215 PM Robem215
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:32:08 PM
gutsy call CMJ..GL holmes....
CMJohnson1 PM CMJohnson1
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:36:46 PM
Like I said, the series has gone exactly how I predicted it, so why should I double think myself like I did in Game 5?
thinicesports PM thinicesports
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:41:41 PM
1. The Celtics are beat up, banged up and older. 
2. The flight back across the country will definitely have a more adverse affect on them just as it did in Game 3. 
3. This is the first game this series that Boston is the favorite.
4. The pressure is definitely more heavy on Boston to close it out here.
5.  Never count out a team led by Kobe Bryant.
6.  The Lakers aren't supposed to win.  No team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit.
7.  The amount of games it will take to decide this series.  The finale will be an absolute war.
 
GAME 6:  LAKERS ML (BIG)
GoG PM GoG
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:47:15 PM
CMJ... i think Rondo will be a big factor tonight... he's like night and day home/away...
 
before the series i predicted the winner of every game, and luckily i have not strayed far from it in my betting...
 
so far it has picked the winner correctly 4 out of 5 games... only game winner that didn't come through was LA in game 2... picked the correct winner in all 3 games in LA...
 
according to that early analysis (on which i did a LOT of work)... game 6 prediction is Boston to win...
 
all year long i have been riding Boston, and i always felt like i was riding KG... this game, i am riding Paul Pierce...
 
one last note: Ray Allen's kid will be watching this game from a hospital bed (or some sick bed)... think he isn't gonna be a bit motivated to give his kid a get well gift?
mika23g PM mika23g
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:48:37 PM
im takin la moneyline
 
GoG PM GoG
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:50:10 PM

also, lots of good reasons to like the under...

1) 35 and 37 pts scored by the Lakers in the 1st Q last two games... this will not happen tonight...

2) Lakers defense was about as bad as i've ever seen from a Phil Jackson coached team... still a miracle they won that game... only thanks to a ton of missed easy shots by Boston... expect a much better effort from the Lakers D...

3) Game 6 is historically a tight game... elimination game for 1 team, closeout for the other... the psychology favors defense...

WinsNow999 PM WinsNow999
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:51:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Prediction:

Celtics  29   Lakers  20  1st quarter

Celtics  52   Lakers  42  Halftime

Celtics  98   Lakers  84  Final

GREEN 17!!  BEAT LA!!

MJ --Hate to go another sides from your this time. But good luck!

Here are mine.

Lakers 24 - Celtics 21 end of Q1.

Lakers 49 - Celtics 45 -- end of Half.

Lakers 98 - Celtics 95 Final. Note. I changed my mine, B/C of MJ's Pick.

By the way I usually have read your post and your idea...You are considered one of the best in this forum.

Goood luck to you!

pronk PM pronk
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:52:29 PM
...Boston by 10...
rusty103 PM rusty103
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Posted: 6/17/2008 6:56:44 PM
No Game 7
                    Celtics Roll Tonight
  
         
 
 
 
 
 
backdooor_cover PM backdooor_cover
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Posted: 6/17/2008 7:00:05 PM
Lakers has won every 1Q so far.  Before last game the celtics won every 3Q.  The rolls change in this game and boston wins 1Q huge, 1Half small and game small
GoG PM GoG
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Posted: 6/17/2008 7:01:03 PM
Perkins expected to play... big emotional lift if he does...
WiseGuy702 PM WiseGuy702
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Posted: 6/17/2008 7:09:49 PM
Lakers +4.5
Under 191.5
 
Good Luck
dsizzle PM dsizzle
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Posted: 6/17/2008 7:10:49 PM
THE LAKERS ARE DONE...............LAY THE CHALK...................................VEGAS MADE A MISTAKE ON THIS ONE!!!!!
spurs74fan PM spurs74fan
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Posted: 6/17/2008 7:12:51 PM
BOSTON AND THE UNDER
Coloneljim PM Coloneljim
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Posted: 6/17/2008 7:35:50 PM
GREGO  Smart play
I just don't want to get caught in the trap.
BEWARE OF THE TRAP GREGO.
KongKiller PM KongKiller
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Posted: 6/17/2008 7:57:09 PM
Under she goes!!!!!
Jalein PM Jalein
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Posted: 6/17/2008 8:14:15 PM
I dont wanna sound like a broken record but.........

This game will come down to the LA offense vs the BOS defense.  Defense wins championships.  PERIOD.  The Lakers on the road are not the Lakers at home.  And for the record, the Lakers at home were none too impressive. 

The obvious trap in this one isnt that the league wants 7 games.  The obvious trap is giving Perkins injury too much weight.  The Celts have been PHENOMENAL at home.  If the Celts are gonna be phenomenal and UNBEATEN ATS what has to hold true?  The Celts Defense is the answer to that rhetorical question.  Is Perkins valuable?  Yup.  Can PJ fill in and make an impact?  Absolutely.

KG has no ring. I sure as Hell think he wants one.  Ray too for that matter.  They have been around long enough to KNOW that they do NOT want a game 7.  Piss on the fact that it is at home.  Piss on what the league wants or what the public wants to see.  The Big 3 KNOW what is at stake. 

The Lakers, once the adrenaline wears off will be forced to rain J's from the perimeter.  They can shoot.  But they will not be able to keep it up.  The Lakers scoring pace will slow Boston will grind them up like sausage. 

My ticket is as follows
UNDER 1st 1/2
UNDER Game
Bos - the points. 

I have already gotten PAID on this series.  I got HUGE loot on the Celts series -105.  All this game is gonna do is make me get a friggin vice grip to keep my wallet closed.  Yeah, I said it.


morgan102 PM morgan102
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Posted: 6/17/2008 8:18:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thinicesports:

1. The Celtics are beat up, banged up and older. 
2. The flight back across the country will definitely have a more adverse affect on them just as it did in Game 3. 
3. This is the first game this series that Boston is the favorite.
4. The pressure is definitely more heavy on Boston to close it out here.
5.  Never count out a team led by Kobe Bryant.
6.  The Lakers aren't supposed to win.  No team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit.
7.  The amount of games it will take to decide this series.  The finale will be an absolute war.
 
GAME 6:  LAKERS ML (BIG)
This is the kind of game and games that Kobe and the lakers love.History!!Thats what THE ZEN MASTER IS PUSHING THAT POINT ACROSS.HISTORY!Plus I don't think Boston can close out a series,especially tonite.LAKERS TONIGHT!!!
rekamyenoM PM rekamyenoM
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Posted: 6/17/2008 8:21:13 PM
The time zone change, jet lag, lack of sleep, and banged up Celtics Team will more than likely force an under in this game. But I wouldn't bet on it. The only bet I like for this game at the opener is
 
LAKERS 1stQ +1
 
I will be betting the rest of this game in-running. I have way too much on the Celtics for the Series to lay out any more coin at this point. I grabbed that at -110 which you all should have if you didn't
 
I wish you all the best on what could be the last of the NBA for the year. But don't be surprised if you see a game 7 . If not.... See you all in the NFL (& College) Football arena where I make a living. And a dam good one I might add.
 
Jalein PM Jalein
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Posted: 6/17/2008 8:24:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

I think the books know Boston takes this by double digits.  So, they could lay a -7 or -8 out there and then we'd all be talking about how Boston will win this thing by double digits so pound -7 or -8.

But, throw a -4 out there and it freezes a lot of people.  Hmmmm.....why so short?  Maybe the NBA wants this to go to 7?  Maybe an injury to the Celtics somewhere?  What do they know that we don't, etc.?

And it gets some people off Boston who would normally bet them at -7, -8 and may even get some otherwise Boston backers onto L.A.!



As said above, reverse psychology and don't overthink.  Love the Celtics -4.
Now that my man is thinking.  I agree 100%
Jalein PM Jalein
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Posted: 6/17/2008 8:25:25 PM
I also got 1/3 BIG on the UNDER 1st Q
backdooor_cover PM backdooor_cover
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quote#100
Posted: 6/17/2008 8:26:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rekamyenoM:

The time zone change, jet lag, lack of sleep, and banged up Celtics Team will more than likely force an under in this game. But I wouldn't bet on it. The only bet I like for this game at the opener is
 
LAKERS 1stQ +1
 
I will be betting the rest of this game in-running. I have way too much on the Celtics for the Series to lay out any more coin at this point. I grabbed that at -110 which you all should have if you didn't
 
I wish you all the best on what could be the last of the NBA for the year. But don't be surprised if you see a game 7 . If not.... See you all in the NFL (& College) Football arena where I make a living. And a dam good one I might add.
 

GET AWAY FROM THIS PLAY AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

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