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Author: [The Archives] Topic: Los Angeles at Boston (06/17/2008)
GoG send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:33:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MountainTerps:

The book do not try to lure the public into bets.  They set every line trying to get equal action on both sides so that they are guaranteed to make money.  PERIOD.

 

 

100% TRUE!

 

reality... this series line opened up at LA (-200)... game 2 closed at LA (-2) in Boston...

 

why is everyone looking at THIS line (of ALL lines) and saying they are trying to induce Boston betting?  does nobody pay attention?

THIS IS THE ONLY LINE OF THE SERIES THAT HAS BEEN CLOSE TO BEING RIGHT!

 

something you need to always think about... after 5 games we all know that LA (-200) was a retarded series line for this game... but that does not change the fact that there are millions of dollars in tickets out there that are all based on the original handicapping line for this series...

in other words... the books never forget where they started the line, and that starting line continues to influence every subsequent line... if they suddenly flipped and make Boston a huge favorite, you are now screwing yourself on both sides of the line... better to take a bath on one side then to take a bath on both sides...

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#52
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:41:08 AM
by the way... i think this is a must-win game for Boston... they cannot allow this game to get to 7 after going up 3-1...
 
my original suggestions for series outcome are looking good... Bos in 6 or Lakers in 7... both in the +450 to +600 range...
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#53
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:43:30 AM
my bets are Bos (-3.5) (bought the hook) and Under (192)...
 
my suggestion is to bet Boston this game, and put a small bet on the Lakers to win the series at (+560) or so...
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#54
Posted: 6/17/2008 11:21:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GoG:

 

 

100% TRUE!

 

reality... this series line opened up at LA (-200)... game 2 closed at LA (-2) in Boston...

 

why is everyone looking at THIS line (of ALL lines) and saying they are trying to induce Boston betting?  does nobody pay attention?

THIS IS THE ONLY LINE OF THE SERIES THAT HAS BEEN CLOSE TO BEING RIGHT!

 

something you need to always think about... after 5 games we all know that LA (-200) was a retarded series line for this game... but that does not change the fact that there are millions of dollars in tickets out there that are all based on the original handicapping line for this series...

in other words... the books never forget where they started the line, and that starting line continues to influence every subsequent line... if they suddenly flipped and make Boston a huge favorite, you are now screwing yourself on both sides of the line... better to take a bath on one side then to take a bath on both sides...

This is all common knowledge
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#55
Posted: 6/17/2008 12:45:44 PM
Boston SUCKS THEY GOT NO HEART
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#56
Posted: 6/17/2008 12:57:40 PM
nightridah!  I am with ya.  dropped my account on this one.  I have been waiting for a while now.  Since the wings dropped the ball in game 5 to start betting again.  And to be completely honest, i was waiting for two things, some $$$ to play with and a bet that made sense.  This one makes sense.  The Celts close it out tonight and they do it thier way.  Low scoring defensive battle that has BOS winning by 8 or 9.  Goodluck to everyone!
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#57
Posted: 6/17/2008 1:36:29 PM
Injuries & another big first-half deficit and a sub-par performance by center Kevin Garnett cost the banged-up Celtics, who lost 103-98 on Sunday in Game 5 at Los Angeles and left Staples Center kicking themselves at the missed opportunity.
 
Without Perkins and Allen (at least not at 100%), Lakers take advantage in the 1stQ and try to get up by as much as they can.
 
LAKERS +1 1stQ
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#58
Posted: 6/17/2008 1:43:10 PM
The Lakers staved off elimination Sunday by getting more physical with the Celtics, who tonight will play their 26th game of this postseason -- a record -- and could be wearing down the Celtics physically.
 
I Smell a Game 7. Can ya Smell it? Close your eyes and inhale deeply through your nose. Sniff Sniff...
 
? Game 7 Anyone ?
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#59
Posted: 6/17/2008 1:50:25 PM
With just one day off in the highly debated 2-3-2 format, Time zone and sleep issues, Boston coach Doc Rivers expects Game 6 to be a struggle. Especially being bangd up as they are...
GL
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#60
Posted: 6/17/2008 2:23:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jockjones:

Boston SUCKS THEY GOT NO HEART

Jock Jones dont be so mad just because you lost money on the fakers this entire finals. Celts had one of the most impressive comes from behind victories we have seen in finals history. No Heart? Jock you got no brain!

Celts and under

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#61
Posted: 6/17/2008 2:27:41 PM
no one mentioned the fact that the celtics didnt get home until late last night because of mechanical issues with there plane...perkins is still questionable..some of you think hes a non-factor but i do it takes the pressure off KG because he has 6 more fouls to give for the C's..also Ray Allen running around because of his childs issues..paul pierce is still hobbling on that knee...rondo and cassell being non factors too...im not saying that the Cs still dont take the championship but the deck is stacked against the Cs at least for tonight to cover this game..the public is jacking this line all up..the books are trying to be slick by offering a "value" line at -4 but by gametime the line will be where it should be -5 maybe even -5.5..im gonna wait til later to make a play but i will say it is highly unlikely that i take the C's for the game...i might wait until half hopefully there losing so i can pound em 2nd half like the other night....
 
be wary tonight Celtics backers....it looks like a trap to me....
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#62
Posted: 6/17/2008 2:31:57 PM
I would say this is the final game of the series, watch out for James Posey and Eddie House in 3 pts perimeter, this is it. Celtics -4, Over 191.5.
Boston Celtics 2008 NBA Champion (not world champion).

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#63
Posted: 6/17/2008 4:20:12 PM
who's with me on the under 191? looks like joe public is.... i dont like that! i understand bout the fatigue will play a factor for both teams especially boston(reaching home at 11:15 last night) theyre back at home but will the D keep it under? any thoughts?
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#64
Posted: 6/17/2008 4:56:18 PM
Lakers ML.... fatigue, injuries and other issues probably too much for BOS to bear for this game...  #7 more likely to go Celtics way..........
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#65
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:17:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TonCapone:

who's with me on the under 191? looks like joe public is.... i dont like that! i understand bout the fatigue will play a factor for both teams especially boston(reaching home at 11:15 last night) theyre back at home but will the D keep it under? any thoughts?

I'm definitely on the under. In elimination games, those tend to trend under. Also there has been some fatigue with the travel and Boston is banged up with injuries. Playing under, but I'm going to buy the 2 points. Just cause Public on it, doesn't mean its bad. Its just bad timing as your getting the bad line at 191.5, if you jumped yesterday, you could have found 192 to 193.5. Watch how close it comes to the number. Going to buy 2 points if necessary, I know some books do have 193.5 if you shop for it. That is my play, under 193.5. Good Luck.

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#66
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:29:52 PM
Lakers will make it to Game 7
 

Editor's Note: Adam Meyer recently joined VegasInsider.com as a professional handicapper. His analysis and expert selections have built his reputation in the sports gaming industry.
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Don’t bury the cadaver just yet!

It’s not like the Celtics thought Los Angeles would lie down and hand them Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Instead, they now head home for Game 6 Tuesday and a possible seventh tilt Thursday to try to close out their first championship in 21 years.

They’re still in great shape – they need one win in two home games – but there are some dangerous signs. For the second straight game, the Lakers came out more aggressive and built a big lead. True, the Celtics manage to climb back into each game – winning Game 4 in miraculous fashion, but it’s a trend they need to halt for good on Tuesday.

Boston guard Paul Pierce was annoyed at what transpired in the fourth and fifth matches of this series, saying the Celtics don’t thrive on letting teams get way ahead of them and then having to get back into the game.

Adding to Boston’s woes is the fact Ray Allen, one of the “Big Three” for Boston, left the Staples Center right after game five due to an unspecified illness to one of his children. His status remains unknown for Game 6. His loss could be a devastating one to the home-town favorites.

Rajon Rondo was hobbled again with his sprained ankle and Paul Pierce’s banged up right-knee does not help matters for the suddenly vulnerable Celtics, even though he poured in 38 points in Game 5.

Kevin Garnett once again was an enigma on offense, scoring just 13 points on only 11 shots. Garnett, unselfish to a fault, has been an early focus of the Celtic guards, who continue to try to get him involved early and in transition. On Sunday, constant foul trouble kept him in check when the Celtics desperately needed him to be more of a factor.

Finally, the Lakers won the physical battle Sunday for the first time in this series, perhaps sending a message that they’re ready to match the Celtics’ more assertive style of play. This was evidenced best by both Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom putting up “double-doubles.” Gasol had 19 points and 12 rebounds while Odom scored 20 points and pulled down 11 boards.

The fifth game of this series was a fight of who could invade the other team’s “space” on post-ups. It was also a battle of where they wanted to catch the ball in the course of setting up their respective offenses. The Lakers clearly won this showdown.

If Kobe Bryant puts together a solid four quarters and if the Lakers as a team can remain the aggressors in a hostile environment, they have a great chance of winning Game 6. And, unless Kevin Garnett steps up and plays like an All-Star in crunch time, the Celtics could very well be looking at a winner-take-all Game 7, where anything could happen.

As the tide ever so slowly turns in the Lakers’ favor, some words of advice to the Boston Celtics about hoisting that 17th Championship Banner in Boston --- “not so fast, my friends.”

 
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#67
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:31:00 PM
LA Lakers/Boston Celtics UNDER!!! Lay it LARGE! 
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#68
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:39:11 PM
BMP's official pick is Lakers ML on this one folks!
 
The reasons have already been stated so I won't get into them again.  Lakers take this one from Boston forcing Game 7. 
 
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#69
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:42:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Coloneljim:

Boston wins, Lakers cover.
Boston- 96            Los Angeles - 94
Lakers             under 191.5

Gotta go against you once again CJ This one seems like a no brainer those are the ones I usually loose

BOSTON -3 1/2

Good luck

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#70
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:43:22 PM
Going with Nightridah and W8LIFTER...
Celtics- 3 1/2 and under 191 1/2.... GL to all
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#71
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:45:27 PM
After have read all above posts from many great -respectful cappers here, I am seeing something as follow:
 
Lakers + 1  Q1 Small
Lakers + 2.5 Half.
 
If Boston will close out the game tonight, it more likely second half.
 
Boston - 4.5 Full game.
Note. Don't like the total for tonight's game, It's very sharp line for O/U. Gust feeling for Under 1H, Whole game will be around 189-192.
 
Good Luck to all!
 
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#72
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:48:56 PM
I thought the line would be around 7 points, so when I opened my books yesterday and saw it at 4 points I couldn't help but see it as a gift. Boston has proven to be the better team. One day rest, as well as their plane being delayed in LA (see SA) gives me a few reservations, but the Celtics have more character and grit than the Lakers.
The defensive intensity will be turned up in the Garden, and today I read that Perkins should play, so I can't see this going over the total.
Bos -4
Bos -4  under 192 (parlay)
Bos +2 under 198 (teaser) 1 pt. buy 
 
 
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#73
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:55:10 PM
OOPS  I mean (lose)
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#74
Posted: 6/17/2008 6:04:24 PM
reverse line movement here..the Lakers are the play for sure...there is no way in hell the books are gonna give us a bone like this..some would say reverse psycology but im thinking its more like a reverse to the reverse..if you follow me...
 
im taking LAKERS ML & Points...
no thanks on the over under....
but if i were playing it i would play it over...theres way too much money on the O/U with little to no movement........
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#75
Posted: 6/17/2008 6:11:04 PM
L  A  K  E  R  S 
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