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Author: [The Archives] Topic: Los Angeles at Boston (06/17/2008)
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#26
Posted: 6/16/2008 6:20:18 PM
Charlene... i am about as big a fan of Garnett as there is... and after game 5 even i have him in the doghouse... but realistically, you are showing some very short-term memory, because he was a huge key to their game 4 comeback win...
 
think about this... Paul Pierce has been the best player in the NBA playoffs this year... but KG has outscored him...
 
and KG isn't a true scorer like Pierce... he is a defender, rebounder, inside presence...
 
so don't bash him too much...
 
i agree his performance in game 5 was ridiculously bad... and until he erases that memory with a dominant game 6 showing, he is deserving of any criticism that comes his way...
 
he had a chance to grab the ring he's been waiting for and all he had to do was take it, and he squandered it away... not at all impressive... i feel like he single-handedly blew that game for them... he was the invisible man...
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#27
Posted: 6/16/2008 7:37:51 PM
didn't the favorites lose that one?
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#28
Posted: 6/16/2008 7:42:37 PM
60+% on boston? if VEGAS would like to give its money away, Boston would win and cover that spread..
 
Lakers hasn't covered a single game ATS. Boston did that at least once against the CAVS...
 
will think about this some more... got 12more hours to do so...
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#29
Posted: 6/16/2008 7:49:21 PM
I JUST dont get the whole series spreads...according to the news, books taking a loss every game. So why would they create a line again to draw action on boston? arent they sick of losing to public 5 straight games? Only thing I could think of is if they put a -7 or -8, people will still take boston. But a -4 makes you say, "fishy line aint it?" and some might stay away (reverse phys.) I do not pay attention to all that, and will take boston -4 ; i have predicted game 1-2-3-4 in terms of money line, laid off five, time to get boston -4 game 6...
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#30
Posted: 6/16/2008 8:14:07 PM
BOSTON...Lay the chalk...Don't over think...
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#31
Posted: 6/16/2008 8:48:48 PM
I think the books know Boston takes this by double digits.  So, they could lay a -7 or -8 out there and then we'd all be talking about how Boston will win this thing by double digits so pound -7 or -8.

But, throw a -4 out there and it freezes a lot of people.  Hmmmm.....why so short?  Maybe the NBA wants this to go to 7?  Maybe an injury to the Celtics somewhere?  What do they know that we don't, etc.?

And it gets some people off Boston who would normally bet them at -7, -8 and may even get some otherwise Boston backers onto L.A.!



As said above, reverse psychology and don't overthink.  Love the Celtics -4.
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#32
Posted: 6/16/2008 10:15:30 PM
WOW LA WON GAME 5..................I THOUGHT SO....
 
GAME 6...............................
SH!T REALLY HARD NOT TO TAKE BOSTON
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#33
Posted: 6/16/2008 11:26:27 PM
Lakers vs. Celtics -4 (3 units) - if Boston doesn't close out the series in Game 6 then they're gonna be in a lot of trouble for the final game.  They need this one to pull the plug on the revived Lakers.  Kendrick Perkins is a game-time decision, and we saw how weak the Celtics are without him in Game 5.  Does Doc really think Leon Powe or Big Baby can fill in for Perkins?  Defense will be the key to victory here so expect this to be a low scoring game.  If the Lakers don't take a commanding early lead by halftime then you might as well stick a fork in them, I don't think Boston will give it away at home in the 4th quarter.
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#34
Posted: 6/17/2008 2:11:33 AM
the lakers are lucky to still be playing....it should be a better series next year when they are at full force with bynum.....he will make the lakers a more physcical team......the only reason boston didnt wrap this up in LA is becuz of those bulshit behind nick-nack fouls GARNETT picked up in the first qtr of the last two games in LA....GARNETT WONT GET THOSE FOULS CALLED IN BOSTON.....AND BOSTON CAN EASYILY BEAT LA WITHOUT PERKINS....GARNETT IS  THE KEY....HE IS THE REASON BOSTON IS IN THE FINALS .....WHEN HE'S INNA GAME HIS PRESENCE IS CRITICAL FOR BOSTON ON OFF/DEF..... THE UNDER IS RIGHT ON POINT JUST LIKE IT WAS IN GAME 3.....A LOT OF PLAYERS COMPLAINED ABOUT FATIGUE AND TIME CHANGING AFTER A 6 HR FLIGHT ....ESPECIALLY THE OLDER PLAYERS.....PICK : BOSTON/UNDER      
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#35
Posted: 6/17/2008 2:14:53 AM
NOTES -BOSTON IS LEADING THE SERIES 3-2...BUT 5-0 ATS .....AND THEY HAVENT EVEN PLAYED GOOD THE LAST TWO  GAMES.....
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#36
Posted: 6/17/2008 3:38:30 AM
The book do not try to lure the public into bets.  They set every line trying to get equal action on both sides so that they are guaranteed to make money.  PERIOD.

Everything Nightridah said was right on, here are some more reasons to be on the Celts....

Boston -4.5 and under 191.5 (I have 192, but I feel a game under 180 so it shouldn't matter).

#1 Both teams get a cross country flight and only a single day off, that means less practice and maybe a bit of weary legs so less jumpers should fall (especially from the Laker bench who seem to play better at home).  Also important is the Laker bench performance since Gasol and Odom have been contained.
#2  No more lackluster Celtics.  They need game 6 and they know it which means the defensive intensity should be there early and often.  I expect the Lakers to 40 or less in the first half.  Also expect Doc Rivers to point out that the Celtics keep getting blown out in first quarters so they may come out extra fired up.
#3  Perkins?  No one else seems to think this is important but the Lakers did a much better job on the boards after Perkins was injured.  He doesn't bring much on offense, but his defense and rebounding allow Garnett to avoid Gasol (and foul trouble) while Perkins cleans the glass on D and frsutrates Gasol.  I'd feel much better about the under and the Celts if someone would tell me he is playing.  I checked perkisabeast.com, but they don't have any info either.  I do think he plays though.  Rivers probably rested him in game five waiting for this game and if its close to healthy he'll give it a go... after all "Perk is a best."
#4 Why is this 4.5?  The home team gets 4.5 points in the NBA (just like the home team gets 3 in the NFL).  We know this.  So if two identical teams played each other the home team would be favored by 4.5.  So when the Celtics get 4.5 at home Vegas is telling me that these teams are equal.  Wrong.  The Celtics are better and have proved it repeatedly.  Every must win game they have won (games 2 and 4) and have looked better throughout the series, so why are they only giving 4.5?  The line is getting closer to correct with each game, but its still off by a few points.  Vegas simply won't let me take the Lakers cause the Celtics have been undervalued in every game.
#5  The Crowd.  I think the Boston crowd may be worth more than 4.5 this time.  They should sense a championship and all those Patriot/RedSox fans will be hammered and obnoxious for several hours tomorrow night (9PM local start gives people 4 hours to drink between work and game 6).  The crowd shouldn't affect Kobe, but Vujacic? Farmar? Radmonavic? Gasol?  Do the officials make those same calls on Garnett in front of 20,000 drunk Bostonians?  Does Boston rotate a little faster and box out a little harder?  Will LA fold up in the second half and just let Kobe take all the shots if LA is down 10 in the third and the crowd senses blood?  (Vujacic won't I've never seen someone who likes shooting as much as that guy, but the rest may pass pass pass pass pass pass, which Kobe will like, but won't help the Lakers win).


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#37
Posted: 6/17/2008 5:24:46 AM
The Hunger factor for Boston is inspiring & will feed their determination further in game 6 - Over 10 years in the league for these vets and no title. Kobe has 3, Phil Jackson has 9, the rest of Lakers are young & with Bynum to complete their team next year gives them plenty of chances. Boston will go for the kill which should have been done in game 5.

Heavily leaning BOSTON -4 - still yet to see who the refs are.
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#38
Posted: 6/17/2008 7:11:24 AM
Boston wins, Lakers cover.
Boston- 96            Los Angeles - 94
Lakers             under 191.5
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#39
Posted: 6/17/2008 8:28:51 AM
good to hear from you again, nytridah!
 
well, you heard him (or read what he said)...
 
taking the C's and UNDER. BIG.
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#40
Posted: 6/17/2008 8:42:09 AM
Close game Boston pulls it out.
If Ray Allen plays.
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#41
Posted: 6/17/2008 8:58:35 AM
Ray Ray will play no doubt about that!!
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#42
Posted: 6/17/2008 9:42:10 AM
Finally decided last night. going with 8 units on this one. Almost feels like a trap, but I'd be kicking myself not to double up on this one.
 
CELTICS -4 (8 units)
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#43
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:14:54 AM
I THOUGHT THE LINE WOULD BE AROUND -7.5? -4 SEEMS LIKE A GIFT.
AS STATED EARLIER DO NOT OVER THINK THIS ONE, LAY THE CHALK.
                        
 
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#44
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:19:37 AM
Lakers will force a game 7-
 
Lakers +4
Lakers ML
 
I think we might see LAL put it all together tonight in this one.
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#45
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:21:45 AM
I think Lakers win today and the series will be 3 : 3 to get it more interesting, but they will drop the final game.I put my money on Lakers today, I believe in tnem. 
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#46
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:26:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MountainTerps:

The book do not try to lure the public into bets.  They set every line trying to get equal action on both sides so that they are guaranteed to make money.  PERIOD.

Everything Nightridah said was right on, here are some more reasons to be on the Celts....

Boston -4.5 and under 191.5 (I have 192, but I feel a game under 180 so it shouldn't matter).

#1 Both teams get a cross country flight and only a single day off, that means less practice and maybe a bit of weary legs so less jumpers should fall (especially from the Laker bench who seem to play better at home).  Also important is the Laker bench performance since Gasol and Odom have been contained.
#2  No more lackluster Celtics.  They need game 6 and they know it which means the defensive intensity should be there early and often.  I expect the Lakers to 40 or less in the first half.  Also expect Doc Rivers to point out that the Celtics keep getting blown out in first quarters so they may come out extra fired up.
#3  Perkins?  No one else seems to think this is important but the Lakers did a much better job on the boards after Perkins was injured.  He doesn't bring much on offense, but his defense and rebounding allow Garnett to avoid Gasol (and foul trouble) while Perkins cleans the glass on D and frsutrates Gasol.  I'd feel much better about the under and the Celts if someone would tell me he is playing.  I checked perkisabeast.com, but they don't have any info either.  I do think he plays though.  Rivers probably rested him in game five waiting for this game and if its close to healthy he'll give it a go... after all "Perk is a best."
#4 Why is this 4.5?  The home team gets 4.5 points in the NBA (just like the home team gets 3 in the NFL).  We know this.  So if two identical teams played each other the home team would be favored by 4.5.  So when the Celtics get 4.5 at home Vegas is telling me that these teams are equal.  Wrong.  The Celtics are better and have proved it repeatedly.  Every must win game they have won (games 2 and 4) and have looked better throughout the series, so why are they only giving 4.5?  The line is getting closer to correct with each game, but its still off by a few points.  Vegas simply won't let me take the Lakers cause the Celtics have been undervalued in every game.
#5  The Crowd.  I think the Boston crowd may be worth more than 4.5 this time.  They should sense a championship and all those Patriot/RedSox fans will be hammered and obnoxious for several hours tomorrow night (9PM local start gives people 4 hours to drink between work and game 6).  The crowd shouldn't affect Kobe, but Vujacic? Farmar? Radmonavic? Gasol?  Do the officials make those same calls on Garnett in front of 20,000 drunk Bostonians?  Does Boston rotate a little faster and box out a little harder?  Will LA fold up in the second half and just let Kobe take all the shots if LA is down 10 in the third and the crowd senses blood?  (Vujacic won't I've never seen someone who likes shooting as much as that guy, but the rest may pass pass pass pass pass pass, which Kobe will like, but won't help the Lakers win).


I agree with this and that is a correct statement, however given the scenario for tonight when Vegas feels that they can sway the public to one side or another they will do it if they can profit from it. Like tonight that line should be set to about -5 or -6 which is even lower that what the line was at LA. But they put out a lower line and you sway the money one way. The public in general likes to bet on the home favorite. They put the line lower to draw more money into bets for boston. This has always been quite profitable for them.

I think Perkins being out again will give GASOL/ODOM more confidence and they will step up. The bench will play a bigger role for the C’s. Kobe will play out of his mind. but in the end I think the lakers lose by 1-3 points thus still paying out the +4 and the minority of the public.

I will not make a final pick until a few minutes before gametime, but my gut says lakers +4

 

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#47
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:28:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MountainTerps:

The book do not try to lure the public into bets.  They set every line trying to get equal action on both sides so that they are guaranteed to make money.  PERIOD.

Really meant just this part

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#48
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:30:21 AM
Boston went to -4.5 but the ML stayed the same.  Hmmm...
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#49
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:30:36 AM
I'm with you %100 percent dcowboys. I also expected the line to be around -5.5 to -6.5. I definately like the Celtics here. I also like under 191.
 
Go Celtics!
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#50
Posted: 6/17/2008 10:33:12 AM
My gut tells me I have a beer belly and I am hungry!!
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