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Author: [The Archives] Topic: MRBator You might want to read this
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MrBator
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#101
Posted: 1/15/2007 9:12:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:

Mr Bator,
 
So Peyton stinks and the Colts still won so he is great.
 
Tom Brady has an average game, the Pats win and he is
not good enough to beat the Colts?
 
Your logic doesn't make much sense
 
 
 
 
Peyton Manning does not stink. I never said that nor implied that.  And he is a great quaretrback.  Do you dispute that??? 
 
Tom Brady did not have an average game.  He had a subpar game, and his team won anyway when the other team buried itself under an avalanche of unforced mistakes (muffed punt, dumbass persnal foul on 4th down, fumble after 4th down interception, etc.). 
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#102
Posted: 1/15/2007 9:26:58 PM
 
Mr bator ,the colts are a good team and there d has been playing great, but your just handing them a victory
 
much to easy.Hell i took the colts over baltimore sat, and to be honest with ya i thought they wouldve won
 
by 2 touchdowns.You can sit here and talk about all the mishaps 4 sd, but at the end of the day they just
 
werent disciplined or coached well enough, and the pats were.
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#103
Posted: 1/15/2007 9:29:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by march:

 
Mr bator you just put your 100,00 on the colts ,ill put my couple hundred on the pats, and when its all said
 
and done and you  lost your kids college fund,maybe  us pats backers will  donate 20$ each so you can
 
afford food for your family to eat if you have one
 
fellas, let's not get silly here.  bator knows more about gambling than we've managed to forget collectively, so please don't make me laugh with these ridiculous posts.
 
i am by no means a blind 'tailer', but i'd rather buy $10,000 worth of lotto tickets than to bet against the b-man. 
 
tomcurtis, i tend to agree with many of your arguments, but could it be perhaps those same reasons why bator does this for a job and we don't? 
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#104
Posted: 1/15/2007 9:34:48 PM
Mr. Bator writes: Regular season stats count for far less in my eyes than the last two games
 
You can go bonzo on two good games by the Colts defense but ignore
the Patriots record, in the playoffs, on artifical surface, in domes and as an underdog?
 
 
I know all about the Patriots' playoff history, about their resiliency, their winning attitude, their intelligent play, and their superior head coach.  And out of respect for all that, I am only calling for a Colts win of 10-17 points, not a real thrashing.
 
 
Mr. Bator writes Now the Patriots are up against a legitimate, fully-focused, revenge-minded powerhouse
 
So you would have bet Indy ON THE ROAD in San Diego?  I think not.
 
 
You think wrong.  I would have loved that matchup even more than this one against the Patriots.  I would have gotten +150 or +160 on the moneyline for the entire 100K and I would have had the revenge angle of the Chargers ruining the Colts' perfect season last year.  I was pulling for the Chargers late in yesterday's game so I could get the Colts at San Diego. 
 
 
Mr. Bator writes Look, Manning didn't have a good game against the Ravens defense, but you know what?  WHAT QUARTERBACK DOES? 
 
Name a good game Manning has had in the playoffs.
 
 
Okay.
 
January 4th, 2004
--------------------------
Manning throws for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns in a 41-10 win.
 
January 11th, 2004
----------------------------
Manning throws for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 38-31 win.
 
January 9th, 2005
--------------------------
Manning throws for 458 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 49-24 win.  
 
 
Dang, you're right.  This guy never has a good game in the playoffs!  And you really can't trust him at home, either.
 
 
I swear, I think someone is ghosting your replies.
 
 
Nope, it's just dumb old me, spouting the usual nonsense about NFL games.
 
 
 
 
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#105
Posted: 1/15/2007 9:36:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by march:

 
Mr bator you just put your 100,00 on the colts ,ill put my couple hundred on the pats, and when its all said
 
and done and you  lost your kids college fund,maybe  us pats backers will  donate 20$ each so you can
 
afford food for your family to eat if you have one
 
 
 
march, if losing $100,000 on one game was enough to put me out of business, then I wouldn't be betting $100,000 on one game, you know what I mean?  Win or lose Sunday, I'll be looking at Monday's basketball card trying to find some winners.
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#106
Posted: 1/15/2007 9:43:07 PM
 
green monster ,I KNOW MR BATOR IS A GOOD HANDICAPPER IT WAS JUST A LITTLE TRASH TALKING AND NOTHING MORE,I BELIEVE I EVEN WISHED HIM LUCK EVEN THOUGH WERE
ON OPPOSITE SIDES.I JUST DONT THINK THE COLTS ARE GOING TO WALK AWAY WITH THIS
THING LIKE HE DOES
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#107
Posted: 1/15/2007 9:49:45 PM
b, send me your paypal addie, i'll send you some lunch money for monday.
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#108
Posted: 1/15/2007 9:50:34 PM
Hi Mr. Bator,
 
Pinnacle has Chicago -1 (-119) but the rest of the internet books have Chicago - 2.5.  Now that Pinnacle pulled out of US, do you think the new pinnacle lines are going to strip out the public factor?  Might be a good angle here.
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#109
Posted: 1/15/2007 10:01:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBator:

 
 
 
Tom Brady was far from sharp in yesterday's game.  Up until Marlon McCree's fumble, he positively sucked (by his standards, of course).  The devastating, and inexcusable, turnover by McCree put the entire Charger team in Full Choke Mode, and after that they were incapable of doing anything right.  TomCurtis, I think you could have rallied the Patriots to victory at that point.  Tom Brady, Tom Curtis, it would have made no difference.
 
Brady is great and he is super clutch, but he is not a better quarterback than Peyton Manning.  Brady in his Super Bowl winning years was always backed up a great defense, something Manning has never enjoyed.  Brady has always benefitted from superior coaching, again a major advantage that Manning has never had as a pro.  It's insulting how highly regarded Brady is over Manning, and this personal playoff dominance is not going to continue.  The Colts moved the ball with ease in the last two regular season meetings against the Pats weakened defense, and they will do it again with similar ease in the comfortable environment of their home Dome where they have won 24 of 27 games the last three seasons.  
 
You're absolutely right, Brady was backed by a solid defense and a hall of fame coach.  He was also backed up by average to below average running backs, a below avg offensive line and very below average receivers.  What have Branch, Givens, Patton or any other ex Patriot WR done with their other teams?  NOTHING.  Brady basically handed them their big contracts to sign as free agents elsewhere.
 
Manning on the other hand has consistently had one of the top 3 offensive lines, top 3 RB's, 2 hall of fame WR's, a very good coach and the benefit of the NFL desperately wanting him to win (in other words, favorable calls for the past 3 years at least). 
 
I'm a missing something here?  Since when has Brady been considered better than Manning.  Other than local Boston media, the rest of the world blows Manning every chance they get.  If Brady had his weapons, it would be a friggin joke.  If Manning had Brady's defense and coach, he would still panic in big games.  That's just his persona.
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#110
Posted: 1/15/2007 10:03:54 PM
 
Tom and Mr.B.............
 
this might be THE BEST and MOST civilized dispute ever in covers history.  Good info while not diminishing each other, thanks for the input and wish you bot the best of luck  this weekend, once again
 
 
 
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#111
Posted: 1/15/2007 10:07:40 PM
Mr. Bator wrote
Mr. Bator writes Look, Manning didn't have a good game against the Ravens defense, but you know what?  WHAT QUARTERBACK DOES? 
 
Name a good game Manning has had in the playoffs.
 
 
Okay.
 
January 4th, 2004
--------------------------
Manning throws for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns in a 41-10 win.
 
January 11th, 2004
----------------------------
Manning throws for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 38-31 win.
 
January 9th, 2005
--------------------------
Manning throws for 458 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 49-24 win.  
 
 
Dang, you're right.  This guy never has a good game in the playoffs!  And you really can't trust him at home, either.
 
I meant Eli Manning.....uh would you believe Archie Manning?
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#112
Posted: 1/15/2007 10:12:59 PM
After reading all of this, I'll be on the Colts...Thanks MrBator and everyone here...
 
Best of luck this weekend...
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#113
Posted: 1/15/2007 10:16:17 PM
Brady throws 3 picks, made a bunch of horrible throws he had a couple nice drives particularly one before half then the rest was given to them by the Chargers, ive never seen a pro team in the playoffs play this poorly yet everyone still hangs onto the Bellichek/Brady mystique well I bet if you ask them how they won that game they would agree that it was given to them on a silver platter SD didnt know how to win
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#114
Posted: 1/15/2007 10:25:01 PM
All I can say right now folks is,Colts have stepped up and want to end this bad habbit of losing in the playoffs.They are playing at home and lets stop shaking our heads and looking the the other way on that pats win.PATS GOT LUCKY WITH A BREAK.Colts earned there wins and manning is a due for game to throw 3 touchdowns or more.
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#115
Posted: 1/15/2007 10:26:11 PM
Mr. Bator,
 
I think your opinion of the colts winning the A.F.C. Championship is spot on. 
 
But do you think that Indy's defense is for real???
You just dont go from worst to first overnight.
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#116
Posted: 1/15/2007 10:56:49 PM
Mr B.
 
 
I'm on New England.  There is something to be said for being on a roll.  I don't usually like to use that angle but the shoe fits here.  The Colts are 6-4 since the win in New England.   Brady threw 4 interceptions that night.  The AT Tennessee and AT Jacksonville wins by New England perked my interest in their shot at grabbing it all.  Clearly they were fortunate to get the fumble off the interception against San Diego.  It reminded me of the "tuck" play vs Oakland a few years back.  They are wearing that same crown again. Brady is Joe Montana and the Patriots like the 49er's of the 80's are the team of the 2000-2010 age.  Brady was below par at San Diego and he won't toss 2 stinkers in a row especially knowing what his performance was the last time against the Colts.   Additionally Maroney ran for 5 yards against San Diego and Dillon for 18.  Toss in Faulk's 25 and I don't see another stinker performance by this trio.
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#117
Posted: 1/15/2007 10:59:57 PM
You can sit here and talk about all the mishaps 4 sd, but at the end of the day they just
 
werent disciplined or coached well enough, and the pats were.

 
True enough, march.  What you're saying is correct.....and yet it was barely enough!  Will it be enough to beat the Colts in the Dome when Peyton Manning is playing in the biggest game of his career?  I'm betting that it won't.  If the Colts lose and Manning plays badly, then I'll agree that the guy's a loser.  But I don't think he is.  This is the defining moment of Peyton Manning's career and he knows it.  He knows that he can make people forget about five or six bad playoff games if he can have one great one on Sunday.
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#118
Posted: 1/15/2007 11:18:09 PM
 
This  is a difining moment for peyton and if he doesnt win this one , nobodies gonna care about the records until hes retired,theyll just remember the great quarterback that could never beat the new england patriots
in the big game.
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#119
Posted: 1/15/2007 11:21:40 PM
Peyton Manning= Dan Fouts, Dan Marino
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#120
Posted: 1/15/2007 11:47:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MRSARATOGA:

Peyton Manning= Dan Fouts, Dan Marino
 
 
I agree
 
Manning has showed me nothing. I cant see how many people are on the colts. Last week Brady an company  did garbage on o the give up on the run an made Brady try to beat them even when he was off,
 
 
 
 
Ask your self a couple of ?s
 
1.Will Brady play that bad again. At the end of game star are born. Who would you want
2.Will the  be able to run the ball on the Colts
3.Bottomline what whould you take qb, dfense,hc,would you
 
 
 
Also for you die hard Mr Bator fans( I am  on 2)  how many time have you his top picks but yet he hedges almost 50%
so you be the judge
 
 
But I recpest all of you and I want to say thank you and keep up the hard work
and also basher cut that garbage out an grow up
 
 
WE ARE HERE TO MAKE  SO  LETS GET IT
 
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#121
Posted: 1/16/2007 12:00:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:

Always,
 
Sorry I just disagree.
 
If a trend is winning I play it the trend until it loses.
 
Even if what you said was true about the 21-1 system, you would still
be 21-4 after going 0-3.
 
You can NEVER go 21-4 just picking the better team.
 
Trends rub people the wrong way because there is no logical
reasoning behind them.
 
IMO that is just pure ego getting in the way.
 
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth is my motto.
 
Even if the Pats hit the crapper, the worst I can do on sides in
this year's playoffs is 4-1.
 
I will take that every time.
 
 
I think you are forgetting that, before a "system" is created, there has to be a history.  Usually, people don't notice a "system" until it has "proven" effective for at least 10 games.  Therefore, by time most systems are established, books are accounting for the trend and the system is adjusting negatively.
 
Keep playing your trends and someday you'll realize they are nothing more than "fuzzy math" like a great American once commented.
 
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#122
Posted: 1/16/2007 12:35:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:

Mr Bator,
 
So Peyton stinks and the Colts still won so he is great.
 
Tom Brady has an average game, the Pats win and he is
not good enough to beat the Colts?
 
Your logic doesn't make much sense
 
Dude...  You dont get it do you?  Listen:  MrBator knows so much more than you about betting football.  I've read many posts of his and I think two of yours, and that's already as obvious as saying that Rosie is fat and disgusting.
 
I'm not saying that you cant disagree with someone, even if he does bet $100,000 a game, but bring something to the table if you're going to disagree with him. 
 
Have you seen how much some of these people bet?  Have you tracked how well they do?  Have you read their posts and how they approach their bets and their reasoning behind it all?  These guys, MrB probably above all else, know what they're doing. 
 
Listen to them.  Dont be so quick to disagree.  Do some thinking before you post. 
 
Last but not least... Good luck this weekend. 
 
 
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#123
Posted: 1/16/2007 12:58:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MRSARATOGA:

Mr B.
 
 
I'm on New England.  There is something to be said for being on a roll.  I don't usually like to use that angle but the shoe fits here.  The Colts are 6-4 since the win in New England.   Brady threw 4 interceptions that night.  The AT Tennessee and AT Jacksonville wins by New England perked my interest in their shot at grabbing it all.  Clearly they were fortunate to get the fumble off the interception against San Diego.  It reminded me of the "tuck" play vs Oakland a few years back.  They are wearing that same crown again. Brady is Joe Montana and the Patriots like the 49er's of the 80's are the team of the 2000-2010 age.  Brady was below par at San Diego and he won't toss 2 stinkers in a row especially knowing what his performance was the last time against the Colts.   Additionally Maroney ran for 5 yards against San Diego and Dillon for 18.  Toss in Faulk's 25 and I don't see another stinker performance by this trio.
 
I like to compare Brady to "THE MAN." But,
 
MrBator, thanks for your picks and discussion.
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#124
Posted: 1/16/2007 1:11:22 AM
alwayswin, thats a fair point. Therefore the basis between a system thats been "cherry picked", and one which has real merit is to gauge what that system has as it basis.
 
Systems based off of pure betting realities (Team A performs so & so as a 2.5-5.5 Dog when they scored X amount of points in their previous game that was an ATS loss) I personally see as having very little to no merit. These inevitably involve "cherry picking".
However, trends based off of fundamental achievements to do with core realities surrounding a sport (ie, in the NBA - a team's consistent output in a B2B situation off a SU win [here the Spurs are a very recent, solid example] where, in that day-to-day sport, heavy scheduling is identifiably a factor in how well teams do or dont perform) IMO are trends that can be looked to with a level of trust.
 
What Tom C is presenting here holds little value in my eyes. The danger with such *ungrounded* trends is always that there are more grounded, real-time factors (that have nothing to do with betting, but everything to do with the fundamentals of the sport concerned) which are seeing the results go the way they've gone, aspects his ultimately shallow trend simply dont account for, therefore cannot identify when they are absent for a result his system calls for, and when that result his system sees fails to be forthcoming, wonders how it let him down.
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#125
Posted: 1/16/2007 1:11:53 AM
didnt mr bator have balt and chi this weekend, i mean the guys not exactly on a tear
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