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Author: [The Archives] Topic: My new Bowl betting cheat sheet
BigPapa21 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#26
Posted: 1/2/2007 11:05:56 PM
Who you got tonight Joe? Tulsa the golden hurricane I think.
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#27
Posted: 1/2/2007 11:31:41 PM
I think you're right, Sunny.

I took a small bite on the over. 

Right now, it tastes bitter.
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#28
Posted: 1/3/2007 12:01:43 AM
How about teams that don't turn the ball over in the red zone?
 
Wake
 
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#29
Posted: 1/3/2007 12:03:43 AM
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#30
Posted: 1/3/2007 12:31:21 AM
 
 
Joe, here's my short-handed thoughts on FL OSU. . .  what do you think?

I don't think Meyer is severely over-matched, but I think you definitely give Tressel the edge here, being he's had the major big-game experiences a lot more (at least 1 each year with Michigan, basically a big 10 Champ game), with Meyer having really only two (BCS bowl, and SEC championship).  
edge: Ohio State

I don't think either team is going to have a problem with motivation
Edge: Even

FL: Leak, Baker, Cornelius, Everett, Hetland, Latsko, Lewis, McCollum, McDonald, Wynn, and you have to believe Nelson will elect for the draft as a Jr.
OSU: Troy Smith, Ginn (go to draft?), and if you count him a factor at all, Zwick.  That's about it, really.  I'm not in tune enough with Ohio State to know who might be leaning towards going to the draft either. Feel free to put in $0.02 if you can fill in the blanks
Edge (though Troy Smith counts a LOT): Florida
 
Out of conference:
OSU: Texas, N. Illinois, Cincinatti, Bowling Green
FL: UCF, Southern Miss, West Carolina, Florida State
Edge: Ohio State, thought FL/FSU big rivalry, usually with more implications than this years game meant for sure. Hell, FSU hurt our strength of Schedule. . .
 
I think Fl has better pass defense, and Ohio State better running game, and Florida has the edge overall with the conference.
 
Wouldn't surprise me to see a 7pt push Ohio State win here.  I think Ohio State ML may be looking as the best bet in my eyes.  If it gets up to 8, I'd consider Florida and the points.
 
More and more I see it, this is looking like a lay off kind of game.
 
 
 
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#31
Posted: 1/3/2007 1:00:25 AM
incredible thread.  wish i had something to add. i like lsu teased big time. we shall see though.  thanks joey p
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#32
Posted: 1/3/2007 1:06:37 AM
G8- Hard to lay off the championship game. Like not betting the super bowl
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#33
Posted: 1/3/2007 1:08:47 AM
Joe-

I think you hit the nail on the head with the first two.  Coaching and motivation are key in the bowl games.

I wrote it in another post, but if the Fiesta and Rose Bowls were playoff games, I think the dynamics would change.

As for the ND/LSU - Louisville covered today, but taking essentially a  two-possession favorite is not something that has fared too well this bowl season.
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#34
Posted: 1/3/2007 1:11:43 AM
here was my cheat sheet and i actually had this written out....worked okay for the 1st week..although looking at this list how the hell did i take A&M?...maybe i should add myself to the idiot list
 
idiots : fulmer,tuberville,tedford,franchione,al groh.....looks like callahan and carr go here now
 
good coaches that always cover their bowl- obrien (was at BC), tressel
 
go against 1 dimensional offenses
 
bet on a team that lost the same bowl last year (BYU)
 
bet against a team that won its "super bowl" last game  (UCLA)...shouldve added A&M)
 
bet on a good team that had a bad year that will use the bowl to "redeem their season"  (FSU)
 
go against teams that "dont want to be there"...(clemson)
 
the underdog always covers the sun bowl and the holiday bowl (like an behind i didnt listen to this one)
 
the # 3 BCS team usually wins and covers their bowl game....not this year i guess
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#35
Posted: 1/3/2007 1:20:18 AM
oh yeah mack brown was usually in my idiot list and for some reason after last year i removed him
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#36
Posted: 1/3/2007 1:34:47 AM
good point on conference strength...maybe the C USA's 0-4  and cincy as a favorite =$ on saturday
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#37
Posted: 1/3/2007 1:57:21 AM
Great sheet, but I don't think it is that complicated.  Everybody is on LSU so ND will cover. 
 
After losing both big games by a wide margin against USC and Michigan, ND will do everything it can to keep this game close.  LSU has better players overall, but ND still has plenty of very good players.  Not sure ND can win, but they certainly can cover.
 
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#38
Posted: 1/3/2007 2:47:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NJDevils:

 
idiots : fulmer,tuberville,tedford,franchione,al groh.....looks like callahan and carr go here now
 
 
LOL
Anyone who knows me knows I have a vendetta against "Fat Boy" Fulmer a.k.a. "The Buffet Bully"
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#39
Posted: 1/3/2007 3:19:57 AM
Something I've noticed, that really has killed me this bowl season, has been turnovers.  I tried putting a large emphasis on turnover margin, taking teams who didn't shoot themselves in the foot and didn't find ways to lose the game.  Thing is, there's absolutely no consistency here.  Michigan, Boston College, Wake Forest, and Texas A&M are all top-15 teams in TO margin who either hurt themselves with turnovers or played like absolute garbage; BYU, Kentucky, San Jose State, and Rutgers all helped themselves by winning the TO battle.  Then you've got teams like Boise State and Nevada - teams who covered but either cost themselves the game or nearly did because of key mistakes at the wrong time.
 
Another thing that seems to be catching on to me is that when it just doesn't make sense, it most certainly should.  It was very challenging to find things to like about Troy, Missouri, Minnesota, Navy, Penn State, and Auburn in my opinion; a lot of the teams just didn't match up well, didn't come into the game on a good note, or were playing an extremely hot team.  I sat there for a month trying to find a reason to take Penn State since I wanted to fade Tennessee (and their soft defense and running game) so bad, but I never could.  Minnesota was 115th in pass D against Texas Tech.  Auburn hadn't been impressive lately.  Missouri had been getting dominated by good opponents.  Troy was 7-5 from the SBC.  Navy was without Ballard and Hampton against BC's 11th ranked run D.  None of them hardly added up, and they all covered.
 
Some things just never change either.  Like USC losing 2 straight games, or 2 straight bowl games.  Or like Texas losing 3 straight games.  Or like Florida State or Miami having a losing season.  These are just the type of things you want in your favor (meaning you aren't betting against them happening).  Obviously neither Texas or Miami covered, but it's hard to make a ML play on Iowa or Nevada in that situation.
 
You make a great point about motivation.  Occasionally you will get a Texas A&M performance, where the team who should be more motivated gets whipped, but just look at other results this bowl season.  So many teams who wanted it badly took care of business.
 
I think talent edges, in a lot of cases, need to be taken out of the picture when the motivation is in the other team's favor.  Like Arkansas/Wisconsin and Boise State/Oklahoma yesterday, for instance.  A lot of people around here loved the Hogs because they were the fastest and most athletic team the Badgers had seen since Michigan.  Same can be said about Boise against Oklahoma.  A lot of these smarter and more sound teams, like Wisconsin, can overcome talent.  I think having a team that plays very sound football and plays as a unit is always worthy of strong consideration (obviously Wake falls under this category, but Louisville was lucky to cover tonight).
 
Just my two cents.  I'm two games under .500 this bowl season, but have gotten hammered from a units standpoint.  It's safe to say I've learned quite a lot for next year.
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#40
Posted: 1/3/2007 3:20:50 AM
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#41
Posted: 1/3/2007 7:04:30 AM
Good stuff.
 
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#42
Posted: 1/3/2007 11:19:41 AM
Great work Joe P
 
got a kick outa this quote...."Mack Brown vs. a potted plant."
 
 
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#43
Posted: 1/3/2007 11:57:57 AM
In actuality Joe, your point about Clemson having a weak coach, and a lack of motivation is probably related to my comment about recent performance.  If you look at teams that struggle down the stretch - most of these teams probably having coaching or injury issues.  Look at the teams I mentioned - Texas and Clemson.  Tah dah.  Who's driving the bus?
 
So recent performance is probably a direct correlation to caoching in many cases, but despite the long layoff, I think its still something that should be looked at during bowl season.  Yes, many of these teams haven't played in a month - and some of the ones that finished on a sour note can put it together during that month and come out on fire, but I would be very curious to see some numbers on teams that lost 2 of their last three games and how they did in the subsequent bowl game.
 
If I get some time, I'll dig up some numbers over the last 6-7 years.
 
 
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#44
Posted: 1/3/2007 12:44:41 PM
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#45
Posted: 1/3/2007 1:57:37 PM
Possibly the best thread EVER! Very informative and right on the $$$!!! Out of all categories, Motivation, in my opinion, is the strongest of all. At least this Bowl Season. Motivation breeds adrinaline which is a strong factor in single man to man match-ups. Countless times this season no-name players stepped up against supposed to be "miss-matches". Anyway  to all on the rest of your picks!!!!
 
 
MB
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#46
Posted: 1/3/2007 2:41:22 PM
Great additions, guys, thanks.

Linde, I tihink one thing that trips me up in any sport is overthinking it.  I've been in season-long contests now for a couple of years, and I've noticed that when I have more time on my hands to really rack my brain about the board for some reason it becomes like trying to pick up toothpicks with mittens on.  But when I have more things going on, for me, my picks tend to come easier and I do better.  I think this is because I'm not ripping a game apart down to its last detail--but that's me, some people I know need to spend time looking over every last shred of evidence before it all falls into place.  Neither is a better way, I'm just saying that for me when I over-think it, it's a problem.

That's what your turnover thing said to me, same with your point about games that didn't make any sense.  Funny thing about two of those is, I took both Navy and Penn. St. in bowl pools simply because I wanted to bet them, but couldn't find a reason.  That was my way of taking a stand and betting them without betting them, ya know. 

But I agree with you, sometimes they just refuse to make sense.

Which leads me to the other thing I've gotten out of this year and that's that I played way too many games.  I'm OK with that because it's taught me a lot, but looking back, I realize there were 32 games (funny how there are now 32 bowl games and 32 opening round games in March Madness, isn't it?), but I really probably should have had no more than eight plays or so in this season.

We say this every year, but just because the game is on TV and you're home from work doesn't mean you have to bet on it.  Nobody listens to that statement all the time, myself included, but it's the truth and Bowl  season's the worst.  It's so easy, they're all on TV, some holiday money would be great, blah, blah, blah--the next thing you know, you've got God knows how much on some school you know nothing about.

That's the trick, I think.  First is narrowing it down--a process in which you may discard an eventual winner or two, but so long as you discard more losers, or games you shouldn't be involved with anyway, the better off you'll be.  Then making sure you're not getting sucked in just for the sake of having action.

Weird thing about how many games to bet, though--and he may hate me for doing this, but he'll get over it and he's the easiest example that comes to mind because his thread was so self-contained--but if you look at someone like Vanzack for example.  He had a sort of one half to two unit menu to choose from.  Had he only bet the big plays, I  think he actually might have finished down instead of up because (and this is from memory, so forgive me if it's off), I believe the smaller plays cashed more regulary than the big ones.

So there's this fine line of, 'OK, these are the ones that fit my criteria, that I feel I want/should bet, now how many of the smaller, maybe riskier, or gut-calls do I want to play as well?'

Because the weird thing is, whether you miss them when you 'cap them, or whether something goes totally against you during the game that you could not have predicted, you could end up losing games you felt great about and then kicking yourself for not taking a couple of shots on smaller things that then came in.  Of course, conversely, you could win your big ones and have your profit nibbled back by your smaller riskier plays.
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#47
Posted: 1/3/2007 3:20:54 PM
I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned - quarterback - .At least I don't recall reading it in this thread.
I don't disagree with any of the other key factors.
But give me a decision to make where the other factors seem to cancel out and I'll take the team with the better QB. That didn't always work out ( Houston, BC ) but -
BYU, So Florida, Hawaii, Central Mich, California, Rutgers, Wisconsin  all had better QBs  IMO.
I didn't bet on all of them, but in several cases I wished that I had.
Joe- You have a marvelous knack of starting threads that elicit excellent discussiuons.
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#48
Posted: 1/3/2007 3:25:23 PM
My cheatsheet = take every underdog, just like I do in the first round of the NCAAs.  For march maddness, I also take every dog for the first half in addtion to the game.
 
 
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#49
Posted: 1/3/2007 3:35:32 PM
heres one i like, colin cowherd calls it the sunday qb.
i just look for a qb that might be able to will his team to victory, regardless of what happens he wont let his team lose. or a big mismatch at the qb spot.
 
it is more about the heart and leadership than the arm to me. chris simms-no......major applewhite-yes
flutie-yes....jeff george-no
 
its a coincidence that the #1 qb in the upcoming draft is playin tonight but ill use him as an example.
 
if lsu is up 10 and getting pressure on b. quinn, is he gonna step up and play his best game ever, like vince did? or is he gonna get mad at his line and make bad decisions like manning does?
 
i think the latter, but cowherd would say take the better pro.
 
hope that was readable, good thread & discussion fellas.
 
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#50
Posted: 1/3/2007 4:27:25 PM
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