Bowl Games thread.....

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Author: [The Archives] Topic: Bowl Games thread.....
luckythirteen PM luckythirteen
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quote#301
Posted: 12/30/2006 12:00:55 AM
are you laying 3 *'s for the comeback on the -135? or are you playing to WIN 3*'s?
 
thanks
vanzack PM vanzack
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quote#302
Posted: 12/30/2006 12:04:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by luckythirteen:

are you laying 3 *'s for the comeback on the -135? or are you playing to WIN 3*'s?
 
thanks
 
My risk will be 3 units more or less.  My potential profit will be 2.3(?) units give or take.
 
But thats just my personal choice......
 
frumundercheeze PM frumundercheeze
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quote#303
Posted: 12/30/2006 12:50:10 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by bookiessuck]
 
OK Covers this is the garbage I see on daily basis that makes this place fucked up. Just get rid of this fuckin cocksucker. He just joined on 11/21 and is being a fuckin person! There is no reason to keep fool like this around on this fuckin site. This is the main reason you see people leave here so do all of us a favor and yourselves and ban him because negativity is something we don't need to hear at this site.
 
SOMEBODY NEEDS A girl SLAPPING
luckythirteen PM luckythirteen
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quote#304
Posted: 12/30/2006 1:00:11 AM
yo.......sorry to even ask this as i don't want to be like one of those begging and tugging at your pant leg......but i am definately coattailing this bowl season and am not afraid to admit i am not doing it myself......hoping you post your monday plays by sunday afternoon sometime so we can get them in before we hit the town and dont have to wake up hungover for the first game at 8am.........whatcha think?......
vanzack PM vanzack
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quote#305
Posted: 12/30/2006 8:14:20 AM

Miami vs Nevada (NO PLAY).  How can anyone be excited about backing a Miami team that has scored 17, 7, 13, 10, and 23 points in each of their last 5 games losing 4 out of those 5?  Will Miami even show up – this is a fantastic program playing in Boise at 6-6 – will they be motivated?  How will the coaching situation affect Miami?

 

There is no doubt that Miami’s defense is very good, but as you saw in the Clemson game yesterday a defense gets worn down over the course of the game if the offense just stinks and is not motivated.  Miami is a lot like FSU in that they will need turnovers, special teams plays, and other intangibles to put a lot of points up.

 

Nevada should be ready to play but are still at a class disadvantage in almost every category.

 

Overall, to much uncertainty for me to put money on.  PASS.

searchwarrant PM searchwarrant
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quote#306
Posted: 12/30/2006 8:15:36 AM
Doin Great Van...keep it up.
vanzack PM vanzack
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quote#307
Posted: 12/30/2006 8:16:31 AM
***to = too
vanzack PM vanzack
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quote#308
Posted: 12/30/2006 8:19:46 AM
Thanks all for the nice comments.
 
I hope Im not a douchebag by the end of this thread.
 
LUCKY - I will have all of mondays games up by the afternoon today I hope.
 
Beningo88 PM Beningo88
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quote#309
Posted: 12/30/2006 8:36:14 AM
Miami huge, I will have a write-up! 
KOAJ PM KOAJ
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quote#310
Posted: 12/30/2006 8:50:48 AM
my 2 cents on BC:

-not worried about BC coaching situation
-i dont see Navy being able to throw the ball at all without QB Ballard (who is out)
-BC gives up 90 ypg on the ground

BC should be able to play 8 in the box effectively all day. I think too much is being read into the coaching situation for BC. They are not the type of team to have a hissy fit and give up like Clemson did when things dont go their way. The team is very disciplined and the staff that helped Tom Obrien win 6 bowls in a row is still intact and will be working the game.

Navy's last 4 wins came against Duke, East Mich, Temple, Army....awful competition. They only threw 6 times in the Army game, QB going 1 for 6 for 11 yds.
bagzman PM bagzman
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quote#311
Posted: 12/30/2006 8:52:29 AM
Enjoyed the analysis, convinced me to go under in BC-Navy and VaTech-UGa.
 
 
chodya PM chodya
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quote#312
Posted: 12/30/2006 9:22:22 AM
VT's D is pretty good. 
 
Why is it that I have to lay on everygame even if its just a buck?  So that means I'll be playing the Miami/Nev game.. Prob taking the over.
BigEastExpert PM BigEastExpert
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quote#313
Posted: 12/30/2006 9:26:26 AM
Van, I agree on your TT comments.  What a bunch of underachievers.
 
The 1 good thing is that I was able to bet an in-game over (over 20 pts in 4Q) to make my money back.
TT was inside the 5 as the 4Q started - a perfect situation to take the over as they scored 4 seconds later.
I have used that in-game system 7 times this year and it has gone 7-0.  Of course, it is situational and does not happen very many times over the course of the year.  And you have to be ready to pounce on it.
 
The key to OT was getting 1st possession & a TD which they did not do.  That was really the only way to cover the 6.5.  Then when Minn kicked a FG, I knew I was cooked.
 
Question, did TT win the toss and defer in OT?  I thought that is what may have happened.
 
GL today.
 
LostBall PM LostBall
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quote#314
Posted: 12/30/2006 11:08:07 AM
Good work, Vanzack.  Thanks for sharing and hope your winning continues...
sharper45 PM sharper45
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quote#315
Posted: 12/30/2006 11:17:34 AM
Van...good luck
Johnnynumbers PM Johnnynumbers
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quote#316
Posted: 12/30/2006 11:25:26 AM
Van-
Keep up the good work...Tex Tech hurt, but that's the way it goes...I still feel that fading the Big Ten teams other than OSU, Mich, and maybe Wisc. is the right idea...
MNFLoser PM MNFLoser
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quote#317
Posted: 12/30/2006 11:44:06 AM
I like Georgia.  SEC has looked quite good in bowls where as the ACC is soft as hell.
vanzack PM vanzack
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quote#318
Posted: 12/30/2006 11:56:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MNFLoser:

I like Georgia.  SEC has looked quite good in bowls where as the ACC is soft as hell.
 
Dont know what you mean by that.
 
By my count, ACC is 2-1 (FSU by 17, MD by 17) so far in bowls and SEC is 2-1.
 
lfhlaw PM lfhlaw
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quote#319
Posted: 12/30/2006 12:04:54 PM
Don't like the side, but I like the over, Navy may not win, but I think BC will score on Navy and possibly may cover if they get up big on Navy. Navy's passing game hasn't been great if they have to come back, but most of the time, they match up by scoring on the runs. Navy's been great covering spreads this year as I've won a ton of money on them early as well as with Rice as a ML Dog. Hopefully with the time, they've worked on the passing game as well.

Over 47.5 for me.
bobforme99 PM bobforme99
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quote#320
Posted: 12/30/2006 12:08:43 PM
hey vanzack ragone15 is having a hard time winning in his thread maybe you should go over there and tell him whos really going to win today
vanzack PM vanzack
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quote#321
Posted: 12/30/2006 1:07:15 PM

Tennessee -3.5 (**) vs Penn State.  Im liking these matchups of the Big Ten teams vs the SEC teams.  Both of these teams faired similarly in their conference schedule, each losing to the top 3 teams in their conference and winning the rest.  Problem is, the Big Ten teams suck after the top 3 and the SEC doesn’t.

 

PSU chance is to play great defense and hold TN in the teens, but I think TN will have too much speed at WR and this is where the difference will be.  TN will be able to move the ball in the air and PSU’s mediocre offense will stall out most of the day re PSU vs ND.

 

TN 24 – 7

 

Nebraska +2 (going to wait as this should go higher)( **) vs Auburn.  Auburn’s offense isn’t built to be in a shootout and I think this is where they will have trouble.  Nebraska will move the ball as Auburn tries to adjust to an offense that they see very little of in the SEC.

 

I think Nebraska gets up in the first half and Auburn scrambles to adjust but wont.  This is one of those style differences that Auburn will have trouble with and Nebraska wont.  If Neb avoids the turnovers that killed them late in the season they will win outright.

 

Nebraska 31 – 21

vanzack PM vanzack
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quote#322
Posted: 12/30/2006 1:08:39 PM

Arkansas -2.5 and ML -130 split (****) vs Wisconsin.  Here is a great example of a style adjustment and speed advantage that will kill wisky.  The big slow wisky defense will not stop the Arkansas attack.  I think that Ark will have their way on the ground game and that means Ark will win.  Simple.

 

I challenge anyone to find an easier schedule than Wisconsins.  Out of conference they played; Bowling Green, Western Illinois, San Diego St, and Buffalo.  In conference, they avoided Ohio State, lost to Michigan, and beat all the other terrible Big Ten teams.  Now Im not one to punish a team for a weak schedule because I believe that it can be misleading because they might have beaten better teams if they had the chance to – but I do alter my statistical modeling to adjust.  Wisconsin statistically has the 4th best defense in NCAA but with my adjustments for opponents that number goes to 52nd.  All of their stats go down when adjusted for opponent expectations.

 

This will be equal to S Carolina as my biggest bet of the bowl season.

Arkansas 35 – 10

 

W Virginia vs G Tech (NO PLAY).  I don’t know how anyone could wager on this game.  You either get a team with a QB that has never had any meaningful playing time or a very inconsistent WV team that sometimes shows up and other times doesn’t.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised with any outcome in this one, including a G Tech blowout.

 

PASS

 

Michigan +1 (***) vs USC.  Lots of individual factors add up to Michigan for me here.  Every game that USC struggled offensively in this season was because of defensive pressure on Booty.  UCLA and Cal were able to get at him and he is not like Leinart, he will turn it over and make bad decisions.  I think that the Michigan defense will be able to stop the run of USC (1st in the nation against the run) and therefore force him to throw where USC will struggle.  They look like world beaters against ND, but look terrible against UCLA and the simple difference is pressure and coverage – both of which Michigan should excel at.

 

I also believe that Michigan believes that they are still in the National Championship race, even if it is just for the AP vote.  I also think that this has to be a letdown for USC after 2 years of playing at the top and losing their last game to UCLA.

 

Michigan 28-17

 

 

vanzack PM vanzack
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quote#323
Posted: 12/30/2006 1:08:52 PM

Boise +7.5 (*) vs Oklahoma.  I probably wont bet this game but if I had to choose I would take the points.  Call me crazy but I do believe that Boise has a chance here.  I get the feeling that they are the right kind of team to be able to keep pressure on Oklahoma and force them in to situations and mistakes.  I don’t buy that Paul Thompson is a pure dropback passer and if Boise can stop the Okl run they might be in trouble.


Probably a pass but might throw a fun bet on Boise.

 

Oklahoma 28-24

Joe Public PM Joe Public
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quote#324
Posted: 12/30/2006 1:14:13 PM
This thread's going to 50,000 views.  You heard it here first.

Good luck, Van.  The only one I don't like to see you on is Boise, because I like Oklahoma a lot.

But as I'm sure you're aware, I and many others will be watching this system closely.

=)

G8RB8 PM G8RB8
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quote#325
Posted: 12/30/2006 1:20:51 PM
The suspense on the UF/Ost pick is killing me
 
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