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Author: [The Archives] Topic: Bowl Games thread.....
vanzack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:03:26 PM

As they say on the ESPN commercials, it’s the most wonderful time of the year.  Lets hope the most profitable too.

 

Im going to try and keep one thread for the whole bowl season.

 

Im also going to rate my games from 1 star to 4 stars, here is the breakdown:

 

* = lean but probably no bet for me

** = one unit wager for me

*** = one and a half unit wager for me

**** = the rare (but at least 3 for this bowl season, prob more) double wager for me

 

So here are the games through Fri Dec 22.  I will add the rest day by day.

 

TCU -12 (*) vs N Illinois.  This is a tough opener that will be played in San Diego.  N Illinois plays in the crappy MAC and had out of conference games against Iowa, Oh St, Temple, and Indiana State.  They won the games they should have and lost the ones they should have.   They rely heavily upon getting their ground game going averaging about 180 on the ground.  Their air attack depends upon their ground attack working, as shown in the games where they couldn’t get the ground game going the air attack was weak too.

 

TCU is hot right now winning 7 in a row coming in to this bowl game and none of them were really all that close.  TCU historically has lived off its defense but this team is stacked on offense averaging over 400 yards per game, their rushing offense is 9th in the nation.  Remember where I said N ILL would have to get their ground game going?  Problem is that TCU gives up only 67 yards on the ground per game which is 4th in the country and 1st in the MWC.  This team has held some very good offensive teams down (like T Tech to 3 points) and I think they can do it here to N Ill.

 

I hate laying DD in bowl games.  The past 10 years of DD dogs in bowl games cover at a ridiculous rate.  I don’t think TCU will sleepwalk through this one though.  They are coming in on a roll and should be happy to be there, and I hope will show up and cover the big number.

 

BYU -3.5 (***) (waiting as line keeps drifting down, trying to get -3)  vs Oregon.  This game is in Las Vegas.  Im confident that BYU will put up a big number against a sub par Oregon defense.  Oregons defense doesn’t give up a ton of yards, but because of turnovers and poor punting and kickoffs they are one of the worst points given / yards given teams in the country.  These are the teams you want to bet against, the teams that constantly give you a short field to work with and will make mistakes. 

 

Oregon limps in to this game since they made Brady Leaf the starter at qb.  He has done a reasonably good job but is still only 2-3 in his starts.  The Oregon offense is a lot like their defense in that they don’t turn yards in to points.  BYU has a bend but don’t break defense that should give up the yards but not the points.

 

This is my first big play of the bowl season as I see BYU being able to move the ball at will and holding Oregon to a reasonable number.  Total players might like the over here.  I see something like a 45-24 game.

 

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#2
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:03:35 PM

Troy vs Rice.  Nothing here.  Nada.  Drink a bottle of wine and go to sleep early.  Troy cruised through their conference schedule but lost to G Tech, FSU, Neb, and  UAB all on the road.  Now they should probably lose to those teams, but their loss to UAB concerns me.  Rice has won the games it should have and lost the rest.  Rice wins games by ridiculously close margins winning their final 6 games by 4, 1, 3, 6, 11, and 1.  And that is against CUSA crap competition.  Rice’s defense is very bad and gives up a ton of points.

 

I cant get excited about anything in this one.  Rip it out of the schedule.

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Posted: 12/12/2006 6:11:07 PM

S Florida -4 (**) vs E Carolina.  This one is in Birmingham Alabama.  I shade this one to SFL because of stronger numbers across the board for them, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  SFL is 24th in the country in total defense and 2 in the big east – and I think that is a big deal.  If you can play W Va, Louisville, and Rutgers and still have those numbers I am impressed.

 

In bowl games I also lay a big emphasis on conference strength and out of conference schedule.  The Big East and CUSA just don’t compare week in and week out.  ECU did not put up big offensive numbers against subpar defenses and I just don’t think they will get to the 20’s in this one.

 

USF qb grothe is a freshman and a good one, and has progressively gotten better over the season.  He is a dual threat and while USF isn’t going to put up a huge number here I think they will get in to the 20’s.

 

I see a 24-13 game for USF.

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#4
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:14:44 PM

SJ State +5.5 (**) (I realize this game is down to +3.5 at which it would be * for me) vs New Mexico.  This one is in Albuqerque NM which is close to a home game for NM.

 

This one is just an overlay pure and simple because of the perceived home field.  I got this one about a week ago at +5.5, and many have seen the value. 

 

NM is not good on offense, they are not good on defense.  At least SJ can move the ball on offense.

 

This is a value play pure and simple.  I had this one close to a PKEM so I will take the 5.5 with a smile.

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#5
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:25:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

SJ State +5.5 (**) (I realize this game is down to +3.5 at which it would be * for me) vs New Mexico.  This one is in Albuqerque NM which is close to a home game for NM.

 

This one is just an overlay pure and simple because of the perceived home field.  I got this one about a week ago at +5.5, and many have seen the value. 

 

NM is not good on offense, they are not good on defense.  At least SJ can move the ball on offense.

 

This is a value play pure and simple.  I had this one close to a PKEM so I will take the 5.5 with a smile.



I know you are a juice freak, so why not sell SJSU down to +4.5 or +4 and get plus money? 5 and 5.5 are the most irrelevant numbers around. My feeling is to either buy cheaply up to 6 or sell down to 4.5 or 4.

Your thoughts?


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#6
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:28:06 PM
good stuff vanzack. GL with your picks.
I like BYU also.
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#7
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:29:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GAM:



I know you are a juice freak, so why not sell SJSU down to +4.5 or +4 and get plus money? 5 and 5.5 are the most irrelevant numbers around. My feeling is to either buy cheaply up to 6 or sell down to 4.5 or 4.

Your thoughts?


 
I got this one at +5.5 -102 so I was willing to deal with that.  I do understand your point though and thought it through.
 
In college I am not convinced that 5 is an insignificant number, or a number that I am willing to sell cheaply which is all you will get.  This is totally unscientific, just a hunch that selling from 5.5 to 4.5 for about 10 cents didnt make sense to me.  Maybe Im wrong but I dont think it could be that far off.
 
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#8
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:37:17 PM
Van- You make a strong case for TCU as a PLAY. I understand the hesitancy to lay DDs but I'm likely to do just that.
Good thread. It will get a lot of hits and a lot of responses.
GL..
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#9
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:51:54 PM
Van,
 
I'm with the Taurus here;  DD favorites can be treacherous during bowl season, but this is one I won't be passing up either.  Your reasoning is perfectly legit and I agree with all of it.
 
Motivation:  TCU wants 11 wins very badly;  that would make them the only Texas team to do so, and HC Patterson has mentioned that as a recruiting tool in-state.  2nd best program in that state if you ask me.
 
Remember two years ago we both were ON NIU against Troy;  we both had it as our best bowl bet that season and after going down 0-14, Huskies kicked behind.  Looking for the opposite here.
 
GL this bowl season Van;  I really enjoy the threads you start;  even though I do not post much in them, it's because I more or less agree with your points and wouldn't have a helluva lot to add.
 
 
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#10
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:52:15 PM
Well, I sure hope you do well Van, considering that your early card is a carbon copy of mine. Interested to see what else you've got cooking......


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#11
Posted: 12/12/2006 6:54:38 PM
agree with your picks but will play Rice..this is the first bowl game for them since Jess Neeley was the coach 1960s. I think they will make a statement like they did against Tulsa as a 14 point dog...won outright  GL
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#12
Posted: 12/12/2006 7:08:53 PM
I pretty much agree with those as well.
 
GL
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#13
Posted: 12/12/2006 11:28:21 PM
Great card Vanzack!
 
Is there anyone who doesnt think that TCU is the play of the bowl season?  OK maybe not the best play but the right play in this case.
 
I am also on BYU, but I already played Rice (a bit weary about that one). 
 
SJSU is my first upset of the bowl season and took them on the ML.  Never took the points in that one.
 
Also like Utah and Oregon St. as favorites early.
 
TCU -7 at the first half was +101 and I put close to 15% of my account on that.
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#14
Posted: 12/13/2006 12:21:37 AM
TCU -12 is one of my favorites.

Utah 1.5 looks like one of my favorites also. Any thoughts on that one yet?
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#15
Posted: 12/13/2006 1:24:13 AM
The Pundit,
 
Lots of cappers like Tulsa, well at least their coaching staff, and based on that it's a tough game. But like other people have pointed out, Utah has lots of speed and athletes.  This line looks light, so the value leans to Utah.  Utah's recent bowl record also makes it look like a chalk play. 
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Posted: 12/13/2006 7:45:10 AM
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#17
Posted: 12/13/2006 9:09:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

S Florida -4 (**) vs E Carolina.  This one is in Birmingham Alabama.  I shade this one to SFL because of stronger numbers across the board for them, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  SFL is 24th in the country in total defense and 2 in the big east – and I think that is a big deal.  If you can play W Va, Louisville, and Rutgers and still have those numbers I am impressed.

 

In bowl games I also lay a big emphasis on conference strength and out of conference schedule.  The Big East and CUSA just don’t compare week in and week out.  ECU did not put up big offensive numbers against subpar defenses and I just don’t think they will get to the 20’s in this one.

 

USF qb grothe is a freshman and a good one, and has progressively gotten better over the season.  He is a dual threat and while USF isn’t going to put up a huge number here I think they will get in to the 20’s.

 

I see a 24-13 game for USF.



very tough game to call...HC Leavitt is staying at USF and while ECU has been a cover machine this year

USF is as good as any team in the Big East and probably the second best team in florida (UF, USF, Miami/FSU)
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#18
Posted: 12/13/2006 9:13:09 AM
Van:
I'm with you on all of these:
 
DD chalk on the Frogs is scary, but I have never prevailed betting against them.  TCU played a weak schedule (89) but the Huskies had the 112th worst schedule in the land.  TCU's D rules here.
 
Relative to the Mormons, anything under a TD relative to chalk here is a gift.  How Arizona managed to beat both of these clubs is beyond me.  On November 18th Zona was a 14 pt. dog to the Ducks and just stomped their fools but good on their own field no less.  They played the Mormons to open the season and  mistakes and not yet having their high-octane offense in gear cost BYU in that one.
 
I do love Rice over Troy.  The Owls are at a 75% clip ATS this year and have garnered me many units.  I refuse to change that formula.  Troy's collapse vs Mid. Tenn. St. cost me dearly and I just can't forgive them.  I will buy under 7 if I have to but hope for a fall in the chalk.  There are Div. II A squads that have played tougher schedules than Troy and Rice is thrilled to get in a bowl.
 
S. Florida's domination in Morganhole to end the season sold me on their D.  They were 21 pt. dogs in that contest and I wish like hell I would have just stuck a unit or two on them for that one.  I won't miss the 2nd chance.
 
Love SJSU as well.  The Lobos have an anemic offense and won't keep pace IMO.  The points make this one irresistable.
 
BOL on your early picks.
 
 
 
 
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#19
Posted: 12/13/2006 9:45:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by YoMomma:

KOAJ AND HUSTLE MAN ARE THE WORST CAPPERS ON THE BOARDS AT COVERS
I do not post much on here but I read religiously.  Koaj is one of the most complete handicappers on this site.  For all of our sakes please just go away.  What an idiot.
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#20
Posted: 12/13/2006 10:57:43 AM
thanks wilba

thats an old "friend" who decided he has 9 lives
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#21
Posted: 12/13/2006 11:45:36 AM
Good stuff Van... keep it coming.  I agree with TCU, BYU, and USF.  BOL this season.  
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#22
Posted: 12/13/2006 6:40:26 PM
Like the TCU and BYU picks
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Posted: 12/14/2006 9:04:34 PM
Van - You've got mail.
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#24
Posted: 12/14/2006 9:54:40 PM
Love TCU and BYU
also like Rice and USF
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#25
Posted: 12/15/2006 5:45:44 PM

Utah -1.5 (*) vs Tulsa in Fort Worth Texas.   This is a pretty even game in my analysis.  Utah always shows up for their bowl games winning their last 5.   Tulsa does have some slight statistical advantages here but I chalk that more up to an easy schedule playing in the weak CUSA. 

 

Special teams is an area that Utah has an advantage as they are first in the nation in net punting and Tulsa is close to the bottom.  Utah should have the advantage of a shorter field throughout.

 

My analysis shows Utah is in a tougher conference, played a tougher schedule, and has the special teams advantage, while offense and defense looks very similar.  Slight edge to Utah here but this will be one that I definitely wont bet on.

 

Arizona State +8 (**) vs Hawaii in Hawaii.  I have to take these points.  AZ ST is a very average team, but in my opinion is very comparable to the Oregon State team that went to Hawaii and won.   They have similar offensive and defensive numbers, most are better than OSU, their problems have extended a lot to turnovers.

 

Hawaii is the type of team that extra coaching time favors when you are playing against them.  ASU should not be surprised by what Hawaii throws at them and should be well adjusted to play the type of offense that Hawaii will bring.

 

Bottom line, I just don’t see how Hawaii deserves to be an 8 point fav here after their 2 out of conference struggles against Purdue and OSU, and will take those points gladly.  High scoring 1 possession type of game.  Will be nerve wracking, but give me those points.

 

Central Michigan -10 (**) vs Middle Tenn ST inside the dome in Detroit.  There is every initial reason to bet Middle Tn here – they are a double digit dog, they are playing a team whose head coach left, they are a small school with bigtime motivation – but I cant get past their deplorable numbers on the field.

 

MTST ranks 105 out of 119 division 1 programs in total offense.  Their passing offense is 108 out of 119.  They play in the crappy sunbelt conference.  Their strength of schedule is ranked 106th in the nation.  Their wins came against:  Ark ST, Lafayette, Monroe, FAU, FIU, North Texas, and Tennessee Tech.  They did not even compete in any game they had against a legitimate div 1 team scoring 34 points in those 4 games.

 

CMU on the other hand also plays in a relatively weak conference, but their offense is outstanding and they have a great QB WR connection that has paid dividends.  They are well balanced on both sides of the ball, and their special teams are also outstanding.  They won the MAC this year and this will be close to a home game for them.

 

Like I said, I wanted to like MTST here but I just cant.  They are overpowered in all facets of this game.  41-14 CMU.

 

More to come.....

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