Posted: 12/15/2006 5:45:44 PM
Utah -1.5 (*) vs Tulsa in Fort Worth Texas. This is a pretty even game in my analysis. Utah always shows up for their bowl games winning their last 5. Tulsa does have some slight statistical advantages here but I chalk that more up to an easy schedule playing in the weak CUSA.
Special teams is an area that Utah has an advantage as they are first in the nation in net punting and Tulsa is close to the bottom. Utah should have the advantage of a shorter field throughout.
My analysis shows Utah is in a tougher conference, played a tougher schedule, and has the special teams advantage, while offense and defense looks very similar. Slight edge to Utah here but this will be one that I definitely wont bet on.
Arizona State +8 (**) vs Hawaii in Hawaii. I have to take these points. AZ ST is a very average team, but in my opinion is very comparable to the Oregon State team that went to Hawaii and won. They have similar offensive and defensive numbers, most are better than OSU, their problems have extended a lot to turnovers.
Hawaii is the type of team that extra coaching time favors when you are playing against them. ASU should not be surprised by what Hawaii throws at them and should be well adjusted to play the type of offense that Hawaii will bring.
Bottom line, I just don’t see how Hawaii deserves to be an 8 point fav here after their 2 out of conference struggles against Purdue and OSU, and will take those points gladly. High scoring 1 possession type of game. Will be nerve wracking, but give me those points.
Central Michigan -10 (**) vs Middle Tenn ST inside the dome in Detroit. There is every initial reason to bet Middle Tn here – they are a double digit dog, they are playing a team whose head coach left, they are a small school with bigtime motivation – but I cant get past their deplorable numbers on the field.
MTST ranks 105 out of 119 division 1 programs in total offense. Their passing offense is 108 out of 119. They play in the crappy sunbelt conference. Their strength of schedule is ranked 106th in the nation. Their wins came against: Ark ST, Lafayette, Monroe, FAU, FIU, North Texas, and Tennessee Tech. They did not even compete in any game they had against a legitimate div 1 team scoring 34 points in those 4 games.
CMU on the other hand also plays in a relatively weak conference, but their offense is outstanding and they have a great QB WR connection that has paid dividends. They are well balanced on both sides of the ball, and their special teams are also outstanding. They won the MAC this year and this will be close to a home game for them.
Like I said, I wanted to like MTST here but I just cant. They are overpowered in all facets of this game. 41-14 CMU.
More to come.....