Professional Handicapper Q&A Session

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Author: [The Archives] Topic: Professional Handicapper Q&A Session
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:27:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fartnsniff:

  

Why should someone buy picks when they can do the research for themselves?



Good question,

For a lot of people it simply comes down to time. Not everyone has the time to sit around and analyze matchups for hours on end and come up with an informed betting decision. That's where I step in. It's really not much different than using a financial planner. Anyone can do the research, but not everyone has, or wants to dedicate the time.
Ragone15 PM Ragone15
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:28:15 PM
Does Vegas really try to achieve balanced action on each and evey game?
Hoang612 PM Hoang612
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:28:56 PM
hey pat, on the wv game tonight who do u think will cover and the total?
Dios1890 PM Dios1890
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:30:42 PM
I would like to ask a question if I may:

I see a lot of professional cappers quoted systems plays like:

Golden State playing Back to Back when the total is between 201 and 204 coming off a SU loss is 10-0 ATS when laying between 3 and 6.5 points at home.

Where do people get these stats?  Do they have personal databases for these situations?

Thanks in advance if you get a chance to answer.

P.S.  Do you think the Zips can win on the road tonight?
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:32:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by king james23_mb:

 
I second that i dont think i would ever buy a pick would rather lose my money on my own selections
 
what makes you so better than anyone else we all wake up in the mourning and put our pants on one leg at a time


Trust me, I understand where you guys are coming from.

Buying picks isn't for everyone, that's for sure.

I'm not saying that I'm necessarily better at handicapping than anyone else, whether they charge for picks or not. I pride myself on consistency and quality, that's it.
Terry Benedict PM Terry Benedict
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:34:36 PM
I take public numbers with a grain of salt and see the "smart money" why dont I ever go say 6-6 for a week ? Im either 10-2 or 2-9 does everybody feel this way? Why does the public either win big or lose big?
I feel like a coin flip shouldnt be better than an amatuer but I know it is? I can figure this out in about 10 years but I'd appreciate the answer from a pro.
thanks
hustle_man PM hustle_man
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:35:54 PM
I have two questions:
 
  1) How hard is it for a professional handicapper to gain credibility from their clientele (or people in general) in releasing their picks in a certain sport (or sports) that they have no experience playing?
 
  2) How common (because I know it happens) is it in the handicapping industry to steal picks and pass them off as that of your own?
 
I.E. "John Anthony" browses covers daily looking for the selections of more knowledgeable posters, steals their plays and writeups, edits the write-up to fit his language or style of writing, and passes them off as his own for PAY.
 
Thanks in advance.
Terry Benedict PM Terry Benedict
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:36:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ragone15:

Does Vegas really try to achieve balanced action on each and evey game?
this is my question except sober.
king james23_mb PM king james23_mb
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:36:31 PM
thanx for taking the time and anwsering the question
 
 
just never understood why people buy picks and they lose
 
then there pissed because they listened to someone else
 
if am gonna go down you better believe am taking my self down
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:37:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ragone15:

Does Vegas really try to achieve balanced action on each and evey game?


Ragone15,

Again, I don't have the definitive answer to this question, but 99% of the time I do believe the answer is yes. It really wouldn't make sense for them to not guarantee themselves a cut. That may be simplifying things a little, but in all honesty that's how I feel.

If they weren't trying to achieve balanced action, they would have to already be aware of the outcome, and that just isn't the case. Or at least I hope it isn't for all of our sakes.
king james23_mb PM king james23_mb
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:38:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hustle_man:

I have two questions:
 
  1) How hard is it for a professional handicapper to gain credibility from their clientele (or people in general) in releasing their picks in a certain sport (or sports) that they have no experience playing?
 
  2) How common (because I know it happens) is it in the handicapping industry to steal picks and pass them off as that of your own?
 
I.E. "John Anthony" browses covers daily looking for the selections of more knowledgeable posters, steals their plays and writeups, edits the write-up to fit his language or style of writing, and passes them off as his own for PAY.
 
Thanks in advance.
 
l
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:39:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dios1890:

I would like to ask a question if I may:

I see a lot of professional cappers quoted systems plays like:

Golden State playing Back to Back when the total is between 201 and 204 coming off a SU loss is 10-0 ATS when laying between 3 and 6.5 points at home.

Where do people get these stats?  Do they have personal databases for these situations?

Thanks in advance if you get a chance to answer.

P.S.  Do you think the Zips can win on the road tonight?


Yes, in most cases, they do have their own personal databases at their disposal. I'm not a strong believer in such trends, and try to use more of a feel approach. What you have to ask yourself is what does a trend such as the one you mentioned really say, in my opinion, not a whole lot.

To answer your second question, no I don't believe the Zips can walk away with the 'w' tonight. Come buy my pick and find out why, j/k.
bookbreaker152 PM bookbreaker152
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:41:06 PM
Using a rating system please rate the weight that you put on the following categories when capping your games?
 
10 = extremely important  1 = Not important at all
 
Injuries -
ATS Trends -
Recent Meetings between these two teams -
Recent Meetings against like teams -
Recent Games Overall -
W/L Home and Away -
Weather -
Overall League Rank Offensively and Defensively -
 
Thanks for being here
 
 
BB 
gamer22 PM gamer22
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:41:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gamer22:

 Why don't you post here in all forums for two weeks....then we'll decide if you're the real deal?  Give us one good reason why not.  It's the only way to show your expertise. 
 
We'll be watching your (system) picks closely!  (thanks Vanzack)
 
Come on Sean, answer please.  Nothing to lose but credibility.  Not trying to be jerk but it's the only way to prove one's capping ability.  If two weeks is too short a period of time pick one sport and do for the season.  Thanks.
king james23_mb PM king james23_mb
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:42:50 PM
Come buy my pick and find out why, j/k
 
 
your a funny man pat
Hoang612 PM Hoang612
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:43:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hoang612:

hey pat, on the wv game tonight who do u think will cover and the total?
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:43:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hustle_man:

I have two questions:
 
  1) How hard is it for a professional handicapper to gain credibility from their clientele (or people in general) in releasing their picks in a certain sport (or sports) that they have no experience playing?
 
  2) How common (because I know it happens) is it in the handicapping industry to steal picks and pass them off as that of your own?
 
I.E. "John Anthony" browses covers daily looking for the selections of more knowledgeable posters, steals their plays and writeups, edits the write-up to fit his language or style of writing, and passes them off as his own for PAY.
 
Thanks in advance.


hustle_man,

1)I really feel that credibility can only be built with success over time. I don't believe that your capping success has anything to do with whether or not you have experience playing a particular sport. For instance, I have played hockey, baseball, and basketball all of my life. Does it make me a better capper? In short, no.

2)It's interesting you bring that up, because it has happened to us on a few occasions over the past couple of years. We've discovered other pay sites, passing off our free picks as their own, and charging for them. It certainly is discouraging to say the least. It is definitely something that you have to watch out for.
bookbreaker152 PM bookbreaker152
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:43:55 PM
You mentioned you didn't think the ZIPS could walk away with the W tonight. You did not however say that you didn't think they would WIN ATS. I got AKRON +4.5
 
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:45:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hoang612:

hey pat, on the wv game tonight who do u think will cover and the total?


In my personal opinion, I would lay the points with WVU. Weather factors, as well as the injury to Mountaineers FB Owen Schmitt, kept us from making a play on that game though. Schmitt is likely to play, but how much remains to be seen. He is a key blocker in the Mountaineers run-heavy offensive scheme.
dmoney41686 PM dmoney41686
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:46:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by P_Miller_Sports:



Ah, this is a common question. While I don't have the definitive answer, generally it is a case of so called 'sharp' money moving the line. People often make the mistake of looking at public numbers that just aren't accurate. In most cases, my advice would be to take public numbers with a grain of salt.
 
Thanks for the response.  Just a quick follow up:
 
Do these movements ever make you rethink or scare you off a play?  Or do you generally ignore them and stick to your original pick?  Thanks again.
gamer22 PM gamer22
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:47:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by P_Miller_Sports:



hustle_man,

1)I really feel that credibility can only be built with success over time. I don't believe that your capping success has anything to do with whether or not you have experience playing a particular sport. For instance, I have played hockey, baseball, and basketball all of my life. Does it make me a better capper? In short, no.

2)It's interesting you bring that up, because it has happened to us on a few occasions over the past couple of years. We've discovered other pay sites, passing off our free picks as their own, and charging for them. It certainly is discouraging to say the least. It is definitely something that you have to watch out for.
 
so,  why not post your picks here for a period of time to gain credibility?
VGPOP PM VGPOP
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:48:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by P_Miller_Sports:



Good question,

For a lot of people it simply comes down to time. Not everyone has the time to sit around and analyze matchups for hours on end and come up with an informed betting decision. That's where I step in. It's really not much different than using a financial planner. Anyone can do the research, but not everyone has, or wants to dedicate the time.
 
Ok. Let's give this guy a try.
 
I see that the last 5-10 minutes before tipoff, for example in the NBA, the line (ATS or Total) changes all over. We could see a -5 favorite team go -6 in no time (and keep in mind that there's no injury or big news as to why line changed) just pure action.  Is this the time where 'sharps' make their plays?
 
Do they wait until the last possible moment to get as much information as they can?
 
How long does a professional bettor spend analizing the games for the day?
Terry Benedict PM Terry Benedict
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:49:07 PM
Yeah Im gathering youre a decent capper/great politician
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:52:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookbreaker152:

Using a rating system please rate the weight that you put on the following categories when capping your games?
 
10 = extremely important  1 = Not important at all
 
Injuries -
ATS Trends -
Recent Meetings between these two teams -
Recent Meetings against like teams -
Recent Games Overall -
W/L Home and Away -
Weather -
Overall League Rank Offensively and Defensively -
 
Thanks for being here
 
 
BB 


bookbreaker152,

Instead of assigning a number ranking to each, I'll just make a quick comment regarding their importance. I'm only going to touch on a few due to time constraints.

Injuries - Not as important as they're made out to be. 99% of the time oddsmakers will already have them accounted for, and you should cap with that in mind.

ATS trends - These can be important, but it really depends on what trends we're talking about. Many can be irrelevant. Margin of ATS victory is another key stat to look at.

Recent Meetings - That depends. In rivalry games, recent meetings become much more important to look at. Definitely consider the time frame in which those previous meetings took place.

Recent games overall - Important. Again, this involves the situational factors that we like to look at. Gives you a good feel for a teams' current state of mind.

W/L home and away - Obviously this is somewhat important, but again it is already taken into account by oddsmakers. More useful when it comes to moneyline betting.

rookie333 PM rookie333
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:52:40 PM
So.... What are your thoughts on the two NBA games tonight? :)
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