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Author: [The Archives] Topic: Professional Handicapper Q&A Session
Rizzo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/16/2006 5:48:11 PM

Welcome to the Handicapper question and answer session with Sean Murphy of Pat Miller Sports and Covers Experts.

 

Please feel free to ask any question you may have of Sean Murphy, as he will be fielding your questions from 6:00 to 7:00 pm EST.

 

I would like to personally thank Sean for giving us this opportunity.

 

Enjoy,

Rizz

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P_Miller_Sports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 11/16/2006 5:54:45 PM
Good evening everyone, thanks for checking out tonight's handicapping Q&A session.

I'll do my best to answer as many questions as I can over the next hour.
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vanzack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#3
Posted: 11/16/2006 5:55:33 PM
I would like to ask a frank question - more about the industry of sports services than actual handicapping advice.
 
Sean, as a legitimate handicapper how do you feel about the reputation of your industry and those in it that abuse things such as records etc?  With the lack of regulation and the ability to say anything under the sun and offer outrageous guarantees - what should we as the consumer know about the integrity of the business and those actually trying to do their best for their customers?  Do you wish there was more regulation?  Does it anger you or do you just have to "play the game" because there is nothing you can do about it?
 
Thanks in advance.
 
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#4
Posted: 11/16/2006 5:56:49 PM
Hey how do you make your picks?
 
What, if any, are the main factors or stats that you look for to determine winners for NFL? NBA?
 
What is the biggest difference between picking winners for NBA and NFL?
 
Can you give examples of good spots to pick winners?
 
How do you analyze matchups?
 
Do you use trends? If so, any specifics? How do you determine which trends will be applicable?
 
Do you use any system plays? if so, what are they?
 
In what situations do you believe the lines are off the most? EX: a team that has won 4 games in a row and are now favored over a team that is actually better..
 
What is your take on hot/cold temas? How long do you think they usually stay such? Are they good bets/fades? examples?
 
Do you put into consideration public money? Do you think public money is more applicable in NBA or NFL?
 
What is your take on line changes? What about "smart" money changing lines?
 
thank you
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#5
Posted: 11/16/2006 5:59:31 PM
Hi, what is the truth on reverse line movements?
 
If the "public" is all over a side and the line move the other way, is the "sharp" money on the other side? (Ex. Vanderbilt moving from +2 to -1 last night despite the fact that the public was seemingly hammering Georgetown)
 
Thank you.
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snicker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Brobury Sports |
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#6
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:01:05 PM
hey Sean
 
Have you seen the movie Two for the Money?   If so, do you consider this an accurate depiction of life as a pro capper? Was the movie even close?
 
 
Personally....I thought the movie was terrible.
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#7
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:02:38 PM
what's your take on trap bets? Can you give an example or how to spot one?
 
I read this in the football forum, but what about reverse traps where Vegas makes lines to try to trap the wise/ sharp bettors. Do you find any truth to this?
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P_Miller_Sports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:02:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

I would like to ask a frank question - more about the industry of sports services than actual handicapping advice.
 
Sean, as a legitimate handicapper how do you feel about the reputation of your industry and those in it that abuse things such as records etc?  With the lack of regulation and the ability to say anything under the sun and offer outrageous guarantees - what should we as the consumer know about the integrity of the business and those actually trying to do their best for their customers?  Do you wish there was more regulation?  Does it anger you or do you just have to "play the game" because there is nothing you can do about it?
 
Thanks in advance.
 


You've brought up some excellent points right off the bat vanzack.

It is frustrating that there are so few 'rules' and 'regulations' surrounding sports handicapping. It really is a case of a few bad apples (or more than a few in this case) ruining it for everyone. As a customer, you really have to do your homework. For a site such as ours at Covers Experts, it's all about honesty and integrity. Our records are monitored daily by a team at Covers, and we have zero tolerance when it comes to any innacuracies.

Of course the best case scenario would be to have one monitor for all professional handicappers, but that just isn't going to happen. It really is a case of buyer beware.
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Rizzo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#9
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:05:39 PM
Good questions Rookie, just limit them so everyone can have a chance to ask something.
 
Rizz
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P_Miller_Sports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#10
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:06:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dmoney416:

Hi, what is the truth on reverse line movements?
 
If the "public" is all over a side and the line move the other way, is the "sharp" money on the other side? (Ex. Vanderbilt moving from +2 to -1 last night despite the fact that the public was seemingly hammering Georgetown)
 
Thank you.


Ah, this is a common question. While I don't have the definitive answer, generally it is a case of so called 'sharp' money moving the line. People often make the mistake of looking at public numbers that just aren't accurate. In most cases, my advice would be to take public numbers with a grain of salt.
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#11
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:08:41 PM
Do you have a documented record of your picks for this season and also previous seasons as I couldn't find them on the site. What concerns people is seeing someone claim he's just gone 7-2 for example - really it means nothing without a season record.
 
How much do you bet on these games yourself, who do you place it with and how much juice do you pay?
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#12
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:08:42 PM

What’s your strategy, do you change it when you get cold?

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#13
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:09:23 PM
What, if any, are the main factors or stats that you look for to determine winners for NFL? NBA?
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P_Miller_Sports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#14
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:10:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by snicker:

hey Sean
 
Have you seen the movie Two for the Money?   If so, do you consider this an accurate depiction of life as a pro capper? Was the movie even close?
 
 
Personally....I thought the movie was terrible.


Good question snicker.

I did see that movie, and by no means was it an accurate depiction of my life as a pro capper. Myself, I work long hours in order to stay ahead of the curve. What that movie did was really paint a picture pro cappers spending all of their time on the golf course, living the fast life, and putting in little effort. Make no mistake, this is a serious business. If I'm going to put a price tag on my selections, I better have good reason to back it up. Customers can sniff out a lack of effort in an instant.
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#15
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:14:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fadeville:

Do you have a documented record of your picks for this season and also previous seasons as I couldn't find them on the site. What concerns people is seeing someone claim he's just gone 7-2 for example - really it means nothing without a season record.
 
How much do you bet on these games yourself, who do you place it with and how much juice do you pay?


Thanks for your interest fadeville.

Yes, we document all of our records, and stand by them.

For the current season, our NFL record is 29-22-3 (57%), NCAAF is 46-36-3 (56%), NBA is 13-5 (72%), and finally NHL is 9-4 (69%).

All of these records are documented by a team at Covers, as I mentioned in an earlier post.

Do I bet on these games myself? Absolutely. I live and die by all of these picks, just as my customers do. It would be very difficult to sleep at night if that were not the case. I just wouldn't be able to justify charging for them.
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#16
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:17:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RonBurgundy:

What’s your strategy, do you change it when you get cold?



I can't say that I have one blanket strategy. I try to follow a similar routine every day, but my strategy changes from sport to sport, and game to game.

One thing I will say is that I am a situational capper. I'm not big on using systems, I really feel that every game is it's own entity.

It is important not to change your ways when you find yourself in a cold streak. Obviously there will be tough stretches, but it's how you work your way out of them that defines you as a handicapper.
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#17
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:18:01 PM
hey who do u thik will cover tonight =P and whats game will be over or under =P
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#18
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:18:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by P_Miller_Sports:



What that movie did was really paint a picture pro cappers spending all of their time on the golf course, living the fast life, and putting in little effort.
 
you mean you dont have a gym in your living room? 
 
Thanks
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#19
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:22:15 PM
  

Why should someone buy picks when they can do the research for themselves?

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#20
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:22:25 PM
are you guys hiring
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#21
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:24:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rookie333:

What, if any, are the main factors or stats that you look for to determine winners for NFL? NBA?


Obviously there are a ton of factors to look at when it comes to both sports. I really feel that how you cap a game is more of an individual thing though. There seems to be an infinite amount of stats at our disposal, but not all of them are useful.

For myself, two of the things I really like to look at our motivation, and scheduling. If you can get a good handle on a team's mindset heading into a game, you're well on your way to success. I find that to be especially true in the NBA.

For example, last night we made a play on the 76ers +4 over the Sonics. Philadelphia entered that contest on a three game slide, with back-to-back games against the Suns and Clippers on deck (all on the road).  Obviously last night's game was probably the most winnable on this trip. A loss last night and they would have in all probability been staring down a five game losing streak. On the other hand, the Sonics were coming off a lengthy east coast road trip, a successful one, and had just one day of rest. The 76ers ended up winning that game outright, and our analysis was pretty much bang on.
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#22
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:25:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hoang612:

hey who do u thik will cover tonight =P and whats game will be over or under =P


Depends which game you are referring to Hoang612.
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#23
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:25:14 PM
 Why don't you post here in all forums for two weeks....then we'll decide if you're the real deal?  Give us one good reason why not.  It's the only way to show your expertise. 
 
We'll be watching your (system) picks closely!  (thanks Vanzack)
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#24
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:25:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fartnsniff:

  

Why should someone buy picks when they can do the research for themselves?

 
I second that i dont think i would ever buy a pick would rather lose my money on my own selections
 
what makes you so better than anyone else we all wake up in the mourning and put our pants on one leg at a time
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#25
Posted: 11/16/2006 6:27:33 PM
Thanks Sean, that's good to hear.
 
Another question if I may- If a person wanted to put say $100,000 on an NBA game, for example, how would they go about doing that? I notice that Pinnacle has a limit of $30,000 for sides. How much does a sharp play on a game? What sort of sums can they get down and at what juice- are we talking 100K? 500K? Presumably not -110?
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