Posted: 9/25/2006 12:58:20 PM
JP, thought I would post my game analysis in your thread as well. How about them Brownies? The first step to being a winning team is to start covering as a dog. Baby steps. Baby steps.
Well, another ho-hum week for me. 3-5-2. I have to say that pushes suck. While they are mildly better than losses, it is a complete letdown to freaking watch an entire game that you have bet, and end up with no freaking result.
The lines have been pretty solid based upon the team talent so far. I them deviating more in the next week or two to reflect the public opinions that are forming about teams this year. In the past, weeks 1-4 have been fairly profitable, but it looks like this year, they will be pretty uneventful.
The games had a lot of useful information to be garnered, however, so here are some thoughts:
The Jets were impressive to me. I feel that Buffalo's defense is fairly good, and going to Buffalo to play is never easy. The Jets may have some sleeper potential this year. I will be looking to capitalize on some good situations with the Jets.
Jax defense looked solid, but Indy offense seemed out of synch a lot. It remains to be seen whether the Jags did that to Indy, or if Indy was a little lacadaisical after a big time scoring performance. I liked this game a lot, after the physical MNF game that the Jags had the previous weeks. One thing about MNF, it doesn't take that much out of a team early in the year. Remember that these are 20-something year olds in great shape. They recover quickly. As the season drags on, we may be able to put more emphasis on a beat up team from Monday night.
GB can still score. I thought DET would drub them here, but old man Favre can still throw the ball. Here is where GB will get killed: When they play a team with a decent (not even great) pass rush. Favre has ALWAYS made poor decisions. In the past, his cannon arm would get him out of trouble. Now, he has lost a little zip on the ball. If a pass rush puts a little pressure on him, he will still try to make the throws that he used to, and get into deep doo-doo. GB doesn't have much of a defense, and overs may be a good thing to look at with this team for you totals bettors. I will be looking to bet against GB whenever they play a team with any kind of D-line, however. Of course, that D has to have a rsbl secondary to capitalize on Favre.
STL/ARI - who cares, right? I kind of feel that 2 shitty teams playing each other, you play the dog. Warner has not looked good since that one season with the Rams. STL doesn't look so hot either. Even if ARI kicked that 97 yard field goal, STL still covers. This game played out the way I saw it.
WAS/HOU - Wow, the Texans really are as bad as everyone thinks. Good thing they passed on Reggie Bush or even Vince Young. WTF were they thinking? That being said, WAS broke out offensively against a pretty good secondary. Dante Robinson is pretty damn good, and he got worked a few times. I think the Skins are better than people give them credit for. The Texans can not string four good quarters together. Too many mental mistakes and breakdowns on defense. Carr is HORRIBLE. he still makes rookie mistakes. It is time to stop making excuses for this guy. Trade him, and get something for him NOW. Both the team and Carr may benefit from a change here.
Chi/Min - I just saw two quality defenses playing a tough game. I love these types of games. The Bear offense scored when they needed to, which they have not been able to do in the past. The Bears also have the division in hand... it's theirs to lose now. I like Minny more and more every time I see them. Both these teams may provide some value into the future. As much as I like the bears, if they start out 4-0, I will probably start betting against them in week 5. They will be way overvalued on the spread. Minny may be a good bet for next week (If they are not on a bye, I haven't looked yet).
Den/NE - Whoa, when did Denver get a defense??? They looked solid. That being said, NE did not look to be firing on all cylinders. Brady did not look sharp, and Corey Dillon was non-existent in this game. Denver really drubbed the Pats. The game was not as close as the score indicated. Two teams to keep an eye on. Denver on the way up, and NE may be declining.
NYG/SEA - While Seattle looked fantastic in the first half, the Giants appeared to be sleepwalking. I kind of felt that the Giants had a letdown after their big comeback the previous week. While they tried to string some points together in the second half, it was too little too late. You totals bettors should be looking to capitalize on the second half giants games. Seattle looks unbeatable at home. BUT, that fact will make them more appealing later in the year, when the line will be too far tilted in their favor. It will be interesting to see how they fare in Chicago next week.
BAL/CLE - Impressed by CLE here, but BAL just doesn't have much offensive firepower. Their D did what they needed to, but I don't feel like they should be favored by more than 3 ever. I may look to take points against BAL next week. Cleveland, is Cleveland. JoeP, I'm sorry but they are not that good. They do have a nice core of young players, and could be on the rise... just not this year.
PHI/SF - No real need to talk about this. Philly is a quality offense, and their D does just enough to keep them afloat.
The other games were too close to call, in my opinion. It was interesting to watch the PItt/CINCI game, which really could have gone either way. Carolina looked strong, and Miami stinks. Tennessee is still horrible, but they can probably cover an 11 point spread. They are not as completely worthless as people think.