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Author: [The Archives] Topic: So, what have we learned - Week 3 (nfl)
Joe Public send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/24/2006 8:39:50 PM
I would really like to be in a better mood right now.  I had one of those days where your original picks go pretty well, but then you sap your account with second half bets or ill-fated plays you made because you were having a good morning, etc.

Ugh.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad for the wins I got, and I do thank the Gambling Gods for it.  But I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't frustrated right now.

That said, let's see what I gleaned from today.

Well, right now I'm gleaning that this NBC highlight show is worthless.  I'd learned that before today, I suppose, but it's like a trip back in time.  To an era before things like information was good.  It's like, here's a TD, some guy scored it at some point during the game and here's the final score.  Fantastic.

Let's start with the morning, because the morning was a happier time for me.

I'm not surprised that Pittsburgh lost given the way they played, though they really shouldn't have given that game away.  But turnovers and some poor choices by Ben late, engh, it happens.  Just like with the Eagles last week, I think that team will be fine.  Hopefully we'll get a little value with them, but being such a public team now after winning it all, we probably won't.  But what we learned today with them is something I think we already knew, you beat that team through the air, not on the ground.  Think of that going forward.  I also think this whole year for Pittsburgh is going to be a learning year for Big Ben.  I think they take a step back to take a step forward.  I'm just not sure how big a step back that step will be.  Whether it will be all the way out of the playoffs or just to 10-6.

Cincy's defense still doesn't impress me.  Either running or passing.

Detroit finally scored some points.  I didn't see the game, but maybe, just maybe, it's time to think about their totals.  Last year they had some weeks there that were great for overs, we might get some of those again. 

I'm glad GB won a game, they won't win many this year and so I think this was good for them.

I think Indy is for Jacksonville like NE was for Indy for years.  I think it's become a mental thing.  They know exactly how to play them, but they simply can't beat them in Indy.  I didn't see it happening today, I don't see it happening any time in the near future without Manning melting down.  On these teams, though, I think we learned that Indy is basically the team they've been for the last few years and that Jax seems to be the team they were last year.  That should be good for at least 10 wins for Jax and at least 11 for Indy.

Minnesota just did what they do again today.  Today they probably should have won, really.  But last week they should have lost so it seems these things even out.  Again I'll say it, Minnesota is going to run over people--literally--this year.  They likely will not blow out anyone but the dregs of the league, but they are going to be able to run the ball and control the clock.

Chicago, hey, they did what they had to do.  Big gut-check kind of win for them.  This really seems like their division to lose now that they're 3-0 in it and have a road win vs. the only team that should rightly contest them.  Let down next week?

Don't look now, and it may mean nothing, but Washington showed up for the first time this season today.  Just hear it in the background.  When they're 100% and once they get on the same page, they do have talent.  No reason to lump them in with the bottom of the barrel.

Carolina may have saved their season, but I'm still not sold yet.  Not without a healthy Steve Smith.

Tampa.  Two things.  Their staff loves this Gradkowski (sp?) character.  If he comes in I'll still look to bet against them because their line sucks and without a running game, what are they going to do.  But I would prefer the known quantity of a not-so-good Simms back there rather than an unknown.

Two, I saw John Gruden on one of the morning shows this morning and that guy has become a walking ad for sunscreen.  Seriously, parents, teach your kids the value of protecting yourself from the sun.  Chucky is in his 40s and his face is starting to look like a f**king lizard.  It's creepy and I don't want to see him when he's 60.

All right, enough of this nonsense, let's talk about the Cleveland Browns.  Yes, they should have won, but they're a young team and this is what happens.  Charlie Frye makes a key mistake at a key time.  Others don't execute.  It happens.  But they should be proud and Romeo should be emboldened by letting this team come out of the box throwing.  Even without Ruben teams are going to make Frye beat them.  He has the talent around him to do it.  They need to let him.  He has to learn.  If you want to write this team off, please do, but as the season goes on they're going to start making people some money and I intend to be one of them.

Oh, and what you saw today was an admission that Kellen Winslow was right.  I don't like his mouth either, but  that they threw the ball today and did what they did suggests to me that Romeo has the right handle on this team.

Philly and Seattle are slowly becoming the same team and--as an Eagle fan--I don't like it.  Seattle isn't the same team they were last year.  That running game isn't there without Hutch.  It's just a fact.  But that passing game is going to be better with Branch because they can go four wide.  This will also help Alexander by spreading the field and giving him some lanes.  But Alexander isn't going to come close to the stats he had last year.  And I think Seattle is going to have to win by throwing the ball.  Even though they have a good defense, they are going to have to throw the ball and put up points to win.  Bet accordingly.

Same with Philly and I think we learned with the Eagles today that though their defense is good, it's not great.  Great teams do not let good or bad teams come back from the dead and though the Eagles offense eventually kept the game out of reach today, their defense in the second half was soft.  I'm going to cut them a little slack because they were all the way across the country and up by 21 at the time.  But I'm not happy about their performance today and because the offense can't kill the clock with a running game, this team, like Seattle, will need to win via the air and via points

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#2
Posted: 9/24/2006 8:40:04 PM
.

Arizona.  You worthless bunch of c*cksuckers.  I hate you.  Whew, that was bitter.  Sorry about that.  Here's the thing.  They're going to play Kurt Warner at least four or five more weeks or until he gets hurt.  I have to remember to look to bet against them in the majority of those games.  I also need to remember to look at the over.  The over should have hit in that game today.  There were more points wasted in that game than were scored in Cleveland in total.  It was sad.  Sadder still is that Kurt Warner sucks and I thought I could get away with betting him on the ML today.  No such luck.  But I'll remember it.

Oh, speaking of which, why on earth should I think the Dolphins will win eight games this year? Because their division sucks?  Maybe.  But they are part of it.  Culpepper is awful.  I'm glad his knee is feeling better because I don't root for injury, but his head is not far removed from where it was before he blew it out.  That security blanket of Moss isn't there and he doesn't look right.  Again, if you want to bet against bad QBs, feel free, I personally look to bet against them.

Week four is usuallly when unders start kicking in as teams have three weeks of film to stare at, but a couple of teams really jump out at me for overs going into the next few weeks:

Cincy
Indy
SF
Arizona
Philly
Seattle (maybe)
NYG (particularly at home)
Detroit (maybe, vs. bad teams)

Such are my first, initial thoughts, what did you see out there today?
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#3
Posted: 9/24/2006 8:58:26 PM
I also keep learning that I don't like this new Sunday Night/MNF deal.  Having Al Michaels and John Madden on Sunday night is weird and wrong.  ABC not having MNF is weird and wrong.  I just don't like it.
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#4
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:00:44 PM
I learned to not ask bad football teams (like Houston) to cover spreads for you
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#5
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:03:08 PM
Being a giant fan, i had to suffer through that game. A couple of things stood out to me and everyone else who watched it. Noise affected the offense all throughout the game, but this offense is not performing up to what they should be. When Eli gets that 'doe in the headlights' look, he isn't going to do anything. You can tell in his body language, that he's disappointed, and it affects his performance. When his back is against the wall, he doesn't 'think' and plays the game up to his expectations. Granted, the crowd was quiet and they were down by a bunch at the time, but he executed the way he should have. I am not convinced that he has the mental toughness yet. He needs to hang with shockey and get fired up all week long. Also, it looked like Plax got benched for the 2nd half. Not good, I don't like it one bit.
 
As far as the defense, they just got steamrolled in the first half, and the slippery slope just got steeper and steeper. They need to have a pass rush, because those db's are not that good.
 
Seattle executed everything well in the first half, but the second half, they are just too predictable. Having fat behind holmgren doesn't help their cause at all in the second half, he never steps on the throat of teams he's blowing out.
 
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#6
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:05:43 PM
I learned that the Giants are the worst first half team in the NFL, but they are by far the best in the second half.
 
Almost screwed me twice in a row.
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#7
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:37:11 PM
Great info Joe Public, one thing though is that Alexander is hurt and has played hurt the last 2 games so he will be back in form at some point this year but all your info, again, is spot on.
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#8
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:39:50 PM
Thanks, TTB. 

So, let's see, Chris Simms is out now for a while.  TB will be starting a rookie QB.  They're already 0-3.  Now it's going to get interesting in Florida.

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#9
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:50:50 PM
Good stuff Joe. I agree 100% with you on Cincy.
 
I had Pitt today and would make that bet again. Ben is not 100% in rythym, yet. Pitt had the opportunity to go up 14-0 but several times they let Cincy back in the game. Once again, Palmer did not look good and he has admitted he is not as mobile/comfortable as he was last year. Bengals did win because Pitt let them. I am waiting to bet against Cincy in the weeks ahead, just not sure when. Their defense was far from impressive and they had no running game.
 
I am an Eagles fan as well and Reid needs to learn not ot take your foot off thier throat when your +21. It coudl have been another 45-3 type of game, but they felt like they had it. Glad for the win, but you gotta wonder how they will play in a tighter game late in the 4th. Call me a homer, but Philly wins the East.
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#10
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:50:50 PM
i learned i should stay un the ncaaf forum...i tend to do much better over there

5-2 sat
1-3 sun
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#11
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:52:22 PM
KOAJ - I noticed you mentioned SF being a live dog in numerous posts. I gotta question why you thought that? Philly is one of the best teams in the NFL, SF is not.
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#12
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:53:15 PM
I learned that betting on the hot QB (Grossman) is not always a great idea.  Hot streaks all have to come to an end sometime.  That INT killed any hopes of a CHI cover. 
 
Grossman seems to be shaping up to be a QB that can beat a bad defense, but look very subpar against a good D.  And I guess that's not that bad...there are some QB's out there that can't even perform against BAD defenses! 
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#13
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:57:36 PM
I'm sick of the "Let Byron Leftwhich be Byron Leftwhich" type quotes.  Michael Herpes says the same thing.
 
This tells me...
The player is lazy ( and doesn't want to work)
the player is uncoachable
the player is bull headed
the player doesn't want to get better
the player is selfish
the player just wants to collect his check and play "street ball"
It's really a selfish thing to say.
 
I know the media will tout out leftwhich and Herpes, but I can't stand them.  I only counted 1 pass over 5 yards that Byron threw and completed.  He was dumping the ball off all game on these 3 yard passes. 
 
His mechanics are horrible.  His footwork is horrible.  I know everybody now talks about that long wind up, but watch his footwork when he drops back... horrible.  He had quite a few throws sail on him this week, because his feet weren't set. 
 
The fat pillsbury dough boy byron couldn't complete a pass against INDY's defense, and it was a sad sight to see.  He ends up resorting to taking hits and complaining for flags. 
 
He was standing in the pocket and trying to "act" like sombody gave him a late hit. 
 
But then again, the media will excuse his poor play, and say " Just let Byron be Byron".
 
That fat darn is worse than I imagined.
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#14
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:59:40 PM
let it go C-Gold.....let it go.
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#15
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:00:35 PM
Oh, how could I forget.  Today I learned that officiating in this league, which doesn't really get a lot of s**t from me all that often, can be absolutely brutal at times.

The end of that Arizona game was a nightmare. 

Look, I have no idea whether Neil Rackers would have had a chance to make what would have been like a 75 yarder on a free kick, but if there's a guy in the league who's got a shot, it's probably him.  But, of course, we were all denied the ability to see him try because the officials bungled the whole thing.  First St. Louis declines the penalty, then they accept it, after Rackers was already on the field and the decision had been made. 

Again, that's hardly why I lost that game, and these guys have a tough job, but seriously, why is it that once a week there seems to be a f**k up that at least makes people question what the hell is going on with these guys.
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#16
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:01:01 PM
I just can't stand to watch a Pro QB, with the mechanics of a highschool QB...
 
but the media is all about Byron.  I wish rush limbaugh made his comments about Byron, culpepper and Herpes, instead of Mcnabb.
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#17
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:02:17 PM
Again, that's hardly why I lost that game, and these guys have a tough job, but seriously, why is it that once a week there seems to be a f**k up that at least makes people question what the hell is going on with these guys.
 
what about in the Browns game.  They call offsides, then review that play where they said the raven was out of bounds?
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#18
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:03:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by doc32:

KOAJ - I noticed you mentioned SF being a live dog in numerous posts. I gotta question why you thought that? Philly is one of the best teams in the NFL, SF is not.


doc, if philly doesnt return that fumble its 24-17 and not 31-10. that changed everything
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#19
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:03:20 PM
I don't hear the 'let Lefty be Lefty' quotes.  I really don't.  That may be because I really rarely hear anything about the Jags, but I really don't hear much about him.

His mechanics do suck, though.  And he is fat.  But he's still better than what a good eight to ten teams have at QB in this league.  Hell, though many may disagree, I'd rather have him than Kurt Warner if I was Arizona.  Not by much, but I'd take him.
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#20
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:03:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Joe_Public:

I would really like to be in a better mood right now.  I had one of those days where your original picks go pretty well, but then you sap your account with second half bets or ill-fated plays you made because you were having a good morning, etc.

Ugh.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad for the wins I got, and I do thank the Gambling Gods for it.  But I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't frustrated right now.

That said, let's see what I gleaned from today.

Well, right now I'm gleaning that this NBC highlight show is worthless.  I'd learned that before today, I suppose, but it's like a trip back in time.  To an era before things like information was good.  It's like, here's a TD, some guy scored it at some point during the game and here's the final score.  Fantastic.

Let's start with the morning, because the morning was a happier time for me.

I'm not surprised that Pittsburgh lost given the way they played, though they really shouldn't have given that game away.  But turnovers and some poor choices by Ben late, engh, it happens.  Just like with the Eagles last week, I think that team will be fine.  Hopefully we'll get a little value with them, but being such a public team now after winning it all, we probably won't.  But what we learned today with them is something I think we already knew, you beat that team through the air, not on the ground.  Think of that going forward.  I also think this whole year for Pittsburgh is going to be a learning year for Big Ben.  I think they take a step back to take a step forward.  I'm just not sure how big a step back that step will be.  Whether it will be all the way out of the playoffs or just to 10-6.

Cincy's defense still doesn't impress me.  Either running or passing.

Detroit finally scored some points.  I didn't see the game, but maybe, just maybe, it's time to think about their totals.  Last year they had some weeks there that were great for overs, we might get some of those again. 

I'm glad GB won a game, they won't win many this year and so I think this was good for them.

I think Indy is for Jacksonville like NE was for Indy for years.  I think it's become a mental thing.  They know exactly how to play them, but they simply can't beat them in Indy.  I didn't see it happening today, I don't see it happening any time in the near future without Manning melting down.  On these teams, though, I think we learned that Indy is basically the team they've been for the last few years and that Jax seems to be the team they were last year.  That should be good for at least 10 wins for Jax and at least 11 for Indy.

Minnesota just did what they do again today.  Today they probably should have won, really.  But last week they should have lost so it seems these things even out.  Again I'll say it, Minnesota is going to run over people--literally--this year.  They likely will not blow out anyone but the dregs of the league, but they are going to be able to run the ball and control the clock.

Chicago, hey, they did what they had to do.  Big gut-check kind of win for them.  This really seems like their division to lose now that they're 3-0 in it and have a road win vs. the only team that should rightly contest them.  Let down next week?

Don't look now, and it may mean nothing, but Washington showed up for the first time this season today.  Just hear it in the background.  When they're 100% and once they get on the same page, they do have talent.  No reason to lump them in with the bottom of the barrel.

Carolina may have saved their season, but I'm still not sold yet.  Not without a healthy Steve Smith.

Tampa.  Two things.  Their staff loves this Gradkowski (sp?) character.  If he comes in I'll still look to bet against them because their line sucks and without a running game, what are they going to do.  But I would prefer the known quantity of a not-so-good Simms back there rather than an unknown.

Two, I saw John Gruden on one of the morning shows this morning and that guy has become a walking ad for sunscreen.  Seriously, parents, teach your kids the value of protecting yourself from the sun.  Chucky is in his 40s and his face is starting to look like a f**king lizard.  It's creepy and I don't want to see him when he's 60.

All right, enough of this nonsense, let's talk about the Cleveland Browns.  Yes, they should have won, but they're a young team and this is what happens.  Charlie Frye makes a key mistake at a key time.  Others don't execute.  It happens.  But they should be proud and Romeo should be emboldened by letting this team come out of the box throwing.  Even without Ruben teams are going to make Frye beat them.  He has the talent around him to do it.  They need to let him.  He has to learn.  If you want to write this team off, please do, but as the season goes on they're going to start making people some money and I intend to be one of them.

Oh, and what you saw today was an admission that Kellen Winslow was right.  I don't like his mouth either, but  that they threw the ball today and did what they did suggests to me that Romeo has the right handle on this team.

Philly and Seattle are slowly becoming the same team and--as an Eagle fan--I don't like it.  Seattle isn't the same team they were last year.  That running game isn't there without Hutch.  It's just a fact.  But that passing game is going to be better with Branch because they can go four wide.  This will also help Alexander by spreading the field and giving him some lanes.  But Alexander isn't going to come close to the stats he had last year.  And I think Seattle is going to have to win by throwing the ball.  Even though they have a good defense, they are going to have to throw the ball and put up points to win.  Bet accordingly.

Same with Philly and I think we learned with the Eagles today that though their defense is good, it's not great.  Great teams do not let good or bad teams come back from the dead and though the Eagles offense eventually kept the game out of reach today, their defense in the second half was soft.  I'm going to cut them a little slack because they were all the way across the country and up by 21 at the time.  But I'm not happy about their performance today and because the offense can't kill the clock with a running game, this team, like Seattle, will need to win via the air and via points

Chicago shouldnt have a let down next week joe,they are the sunday night national game at Soldier field VS Seattle
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#21
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:05:23 PM
Good point, CG.  I think they blew that call, too.  Because it seemed obvious not that he was out of bounds when he caught it, but rather that he had stepped out of bounds before he came back in bounds and caught it.  That should, to my knowledge, make him ineligable (sp?).
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#22
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:05:39 PM
that being said, it wasnt a banner day for me

laid off two strong leans in seattle and cleveland which were winners

strange, in ncaa i play about 5-8 games, in the pros, 3 or 4 tops...

i do have denver pretty big tonight...sometimes people call me for things and it stops there...some weeks it works out, some it doesnt, but always + at the end of the season
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#23
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:10:11 PM
So Where do rank Byron and culpepper on your QB list?  Are they the jags and dolphins quarterbacks of the future?  Were they were 1st and 2nd round picks?  Are either of them ever going to win a superbowl ( NO)? 
 
Sort of reminds me of Kordell stewart.  I think Kordell was better than Byron in a lot of ways though.
 
I always hear the " let byron be byron" bullshit and the same about michael herpes.  I'll also tell you that THEY themselves are always saying that. 
 
Herpes doesn't want to THINK.  He just wants to RUN and make sports center.  He doesn't want to study film, or read a defense... he just wants to drop back and run. 
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#24
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:11:12 PM
and people said the dolphins were their "suprise team" that would contend for the superbowl?
 
O yeah?  With daunte mcfumblepepper?
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#25
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:13:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by C-Gold:

 
Sort of reminds me of Kordell stewart.  I think Kordell was better than Byron in a lot of ways though.
 
Ugh, I just threw up in my mouth a little bit there.  C-Gold, you are the man, but I think you're being a little too harsh on Byron.  You are right, he is NOT a great QB, and will NOT win a SB.  But he is head and shoulders above Kordell.  Kordell is one of the least accurate throwers I've ever seen. 
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