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Author: [The Archives] Topic: The -215 Rule... "My" new system
yosef send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/25/2006 5:35:10 AM
From 1991-2005 I have 18 home games at exactly -215 with home wins 13 times  
visitor @ -215 4 games, 3 wins. Maybe panther is onto something. LOL
 
 
 
That's from some guy's post in the "other" panther thread...  
 
 
So anyways, whatever brain node the guy got those numbers from, that's 73% and money in the friggin bank, yo!  
 
New system: play the -215 rule and only the -215 rule. I don't see how this can lose. The only question now is whether to make them 4 or 8 unit plays.  
 
 
First system play: Suppan v. Santos, line from sb.com  
 
Straight Wager  
215.00/100.00  
 
04/25/06 Cardinals(StLouis) -215  
20:10 ET
 
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#2
Posted: 4/25/2006 6:28:27 AM
does it have to be over -215?  
 
moose over kazmir is -227
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#3
Posted: 4/25/2006 6:29:04 AM
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#4
Posted: 4/25/2006 6:34:25 AM
Um...I think you better read the panther thread(s) first...
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KOAJ send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 4/25/2006 6:52:14 AM
ive tried...200 posts makes it a bit difficult
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#6
Posted: 4/25/2006 6:56:36 AM
quality AND quantity  
 
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#7
Posted: 4/25/2006 7:03:38 AM
loudon, to be honest...i can trust a system  
 
i can trust ervin santana at home and fading the tigers off a 5-1 beginning to their road trip  
 
i can trust numbers and trends and weather but not an arbitrary system based on line movements  
 
bol with your plays
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#8
Posted: 4/25/2006 8:56:10 AM
Is the LumberJack special on today at Denny's? It's Tuesday also.
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#9
Posted: 4/25/2006 9:47:35 AM
meant, i can't trust a system
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#10
Posted: 4/25/2006 10:01:14 AM
This looks like a license to print money, so here's what I did:  
 
I called my local. I asked him if I could lay -215 even for games that are less than -215. For instance, he let me take Hudson tonight for -215 instead of -130. The way I see it, I could bet practically the whole card this way. I think I could retire by this Friday.  
 
What do you think, loudon? Is this as foolproof as it seems? Do you see any way I could fail to make money by the truckload doing this?
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#11
Posted: 4/25/2006 10:31:30 AM
i'm really not try to defend this clown's system, and while i think calling anything a "rule" is ridiculous, you do have to take what he's said in context.  
 
the "rule" is to play the favorite when the line closes at -215. i have no idea how or why this is the play. like i said before, it should be pretty easy to research whether or not this has any sort of real success (though won't be 100% accurate b/c panther has said he only uses the lines from OMNI, i'd imagine it'll get you close). the only explanation i can think of is that there's something about that particular number that the books like that will cause them to leave it there??? who knows.  
 
this is going to sound preach-y, but i don't know where you all get off ripping this guy for sharing his strategy. you don't have to use his picks. at the end of the day, you're still posting daily picks in an internet forum rather than sipping margarita's by the ocean, so bottom line is that your own personal betting systems probably haven't done much better than his. who's to say that someone picking a team based on a batter vs. pitcher sample size of 30 at-bats has any more impact on the outcome of a game? just something to think about.  
 
everyone's on the grind looking to make some cash, so it makes zero sense to discourage someone from doing research that in the end has the potential (should it have some success) to have a direct, positive effect on your personal bankroll
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#12
Posted: 4/25/2006 10:43:26 AM
Hmmmmm. 5 posts. Just joined. Another Panther alias????  
 
 
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#13
Posted: 4/25/2006 10:53:47 AM
haha, was wondering when the first person was going to say that.  
 
i can't stress how much i cant stand the guy's "candy" theme or how he does the stupid 8/4 units thing to boost up his overall +/-. plus his posts are generally incoherent and make him sound bi-polar.  
 
as someone who's been reading this website for a long time and has always found a lot of value in the member posts, what i did want to get across is that it makes no sense to discourage someone from posting, especially someone that apparently has a ton of free time and is apt to do some research
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#14
Posted: 4/25/2006 10:57:32 AM
mod30b  
 
i dont think there is any research involved in panthers system  
 
he watches line movements...  
 
i used to day trade stocks based on ticks and charts and no research into the comapny's fundamentals and did ok with it...but this is different
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#15
Posted: 4/25/2006 11:20:12 AM
Here's the reason for that 73% payoff:  
 
PURE LUCK  
 
 
 
 
This is a CORRELATION, NOT a CAUSATION.
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#16
Posted: 4/25/2006 11:23:56 AM
matador
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#17
Posted: 4/25/2006 11:54:17 AM
hey loudon, that was my post. as for my brain node, the data comes from Pinny closin lines for 2003-2005, 1991-2002 various sources.
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#18
Posted: 4/25/2006 12:32:09 PM
modthirtyb is right. It is worthwhile to look for a vaiable system which points to winners. I am sure all of you incorporate systematic thinking in making your picks, such as if a team has a 19-1 record vs, another team over the last 20 games at home, the system says to bet on the home team. Most of the readers of this forum religiously use the worst system of all: look for topics in all caps and lots of punctuation marks bragging sure winners inside, then tail those posts.
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#19
Posted: 4/25/2006 12:44:08 PM
daystrom: i didn't mean to short-change you. it's nice to know that's accurate even if it was only, what, 22 games over 14 years? that's a slow grind. but thanks for even looking it up.  
 
modthirty: thanks for clarifying the -215 rule. looks like cards are a sure loser then? nah, too soon to say. waiting for closing line.  
 
matador:  
 
 
I don't want to be super-basher here as I'm sure that will invite bad gambling karma. I really do want everyone here to make money, but panther with his hyped-up posts, candy theme, impossibly complex system with at least 4 and maybe as many as 25 angles, etc. etc. just needed to be taking down a peg. Hell, everyody's "system" or style of capping can have a bad day. Maybe Vegas is up on panther now and set down yesterday as a roadblock, or something to at least slow him down, like spike strips.  
 
Get it back, panther, get it back! Seriously.  
 
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#20
Posted: 4/25/2006 12:54:17 PM
loudon, we`re Kool & the gang.  
 
matador:
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#21
Posted: 4/25/2006 1:42:49 PM
This is a CORRELATION, NOT a CAUSATION.  
 
Everyone could learn a lot from Hutchemall. The guy always says the right thing.  
 
THIS ONE SENTENCE DESCRIBES 90% OF THE MISTAKES AT COVERS.  
 
If everyone took the time to understand it, it would pay off more than absolutely anything else you could do.  
 
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#22
Posted: 4/25/2006 1:45:13 PM
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#23
Posted: 4/25/2006 2:06:40 PM
If you dont beleive how much I love the 215 rule, just look in the advice on my profile.  
 
While you are there, vote a "1" for me in poster rating.  
 
Thanks
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#24
Posted: 4/25/2006 2:24:02 PM
This is a CORRELATION, NOT a CAUSATION  
 
 
I understand what you mean, and I agree (to a certain degree). However, I'll also take a strong correlation any day. I'm not saying I necessarily agree with Panther's system, but without actually doing the research, it would absolutely be irresponsible to say that there is zero correlation between betting patterns (read: line movements) and the eventual outcomes of games.  
 
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#25
Posted: 4/25/2006 2:27:16 PM
modthirtyb: you may be on to something. does vegas do its own review of correlations? if so, what would ultimately pay off would be to get info from that guy or those guys who do (or used to do) vegas' statistical reviews...
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