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Author: [The Archives] Topic: YANKEES+1.5(-455)
waltertaylor24
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#251
Posted: 8/24/2011 10:57:09 PM
You can't help some people...
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#252
Posted: 8/24/2011 10:57:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:

I do lovethejuice....I should change my name.

I would rather risk 273 to make 60 and win...than risk 72 to make 60 and lose the 72.   We are talking about a 132 dollar difference.


Option C of risking 273 to make 60 and lose! we are talking about a $200 difference between  Option B and losing Option C. It is too bad you viewed this is a can't lose bet, but at least you learned you can lose for the future.
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#253
Posted: 8/24/2011 10:58:05 PM
just tremendous work by everybody in the forum tonight, wonderful thread. Giants +1.5 with Vogelsong vs the Astros tonight ilovethedough, hop on that garbage.
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#254
Posted: 8/24/2011 10:58:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



I understand your point but lets think about this logically here...

If -455 is NEVER a smart bet, that would mean fading every single -455 you'd be up money. Obviously high juice books that look like -455/+305 isn't going to work. But if you are using an exchange or a low juice book...

Please explain to me how fading every single -455 bet wouldn't make you money in the long run according to your logic. For arguments sake...

Lets say there are 100 bets over the course of a season at -455.

One guy is taking every single -455.

One guy is taking every single +445. (approx price of an exchange)

One has to be in the red, and one has to be in the black. You are pretty much saying the +445 guy HAS to be the one turning a profit with your logic.

I understand you are taking the idea of "picking sports." Trust me, I do. But under the scenario I presented, there is a winner and there is a loser. Clearly you must think the winner is the +445 player.

And there lies the point I was trying to make. All you +445 players should be rich.


You are absolutely correct theoretically here rangerz, but what's the chance that a US player is gonna have access to anywhere near +445? I think you'd be looking at, what, +315 for OAK RRL today? I have no idea, just guessing. That changes the equation. The actual book backing the bet, however, gets +455, not +445. That's why you lay that type of juice and books will roll out the red carpet for you to play with them.
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#255
Posted: 8/24/2011 10:58:58 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

The thread started deserves the garbage he is getting. No doubts about that. BUT to all the garbage talkers out there...

WHY the hell aren't you fading this guy and racking it up? For every -400 he posts, you have a great opportunity to fade em and be up in the long term. Just seems silly to knock a guy for betting a certain way, and NOT fading him. Not defending the guy whatsoever, but I can guarantee 99.9999% of the guys in this thread who talked garbage, did not bet the other side.

Seems pointless to me.

 

How's that pointless?? Except for a few, most just are trying to tell  the OP that it's NEVER a good idea to lay -455 on a baseball game regardless what it looks on paper.

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#256
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:00:17 PM
Your saying every -445 favourite at +1.5 the underdog will be +445. It doesnt work that way and your theory is wrong
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#257
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:03:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bunny651:

 

How's that pointless?? Except for a few, most just are trying to tell  the OP that it's NEVER a good idea to lay -455 on a baseball game regardless what it looks on paper.

That's the point I was trying to make. Sometimes it's not about making money or cashing in on someone's detriment, it's about pointing out the fault in their logic so they can know what they are doing is wrong.

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#258
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:03:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



You are absolutely correct theoretically here rangerz, but what's the chance that a US player is gonna have access to anywhere near +445? I think you'd be looking at, what, +315 for OAK RRL today? I have no idea, just guessing. That changes the equation. The actual book backing the bet, however, gets +455, not +445. That's why you lay that type of juice and books will roll out the red carpet for you to play with them.


Very true Kap, unlikely but I'm strictly talking from the perspective of having the resources to be able to do something like this. As you know, I'm absolutely NOT defending the -455 side, but at the same time those with access to an exchange (the type of guy who bets enough to make it count) should be able to turn quite the profit by simply fading every single big line, according to some.
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#259
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:04:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neverlayoff:

Your saying every -445 favourite at +1.5 the underdog will be +445. It doesnt work that way and your theory is wrong


No I did not, I accounted for the difference in juice and explained what you would need to make it happen. I'm not talking bogus high juice books that 99% of us use. (including me) I'm talking those with access to exchanges.
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#260
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:04:46 PM
it doesnt matter......im winning.....no one understands this..... if i was on here and my record was 20-15, and i was down 5,000 dollars, then i could see what ur saying.... i'm up plenty for the year.... up plenty betting favorites.... meanwhile, 95% of the posters on here are losing... 

this is simple math.... i am winning....

if i lose my behind or something... i can understand the hating...  

winning is winning, and losing is losing.... doesnt matter if you are -500 or -110....  i'm winning...

if i should happen to get buried....talk to me then

i just won 10 in a row...I lost a game.... cmon fellas....we are all on the same team.... us against the books... i lost 273.... not 5k

If i should get buried... talk to me then...
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#261
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:07:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:

it doesnt matter......im winning.....no one understands this..... if i was on here and my record was 20-15, and i was down 5,000 dollars, then i could see what ur saying.... i'm up plenty for the year.... up plenty betting favorites.... meanwhile, 95% of the posters on here are losing... 

this is simple math.... i am winning....

if i lose my behind or something... i can understand the hating...  

winning is winning, and losing is losing.... doesnt matter if you are -500 or -110....  i'm winning...

if i should happen to get buried....talk to me then

i just won 10 in a row...I lost a game.... cmon fellas....we are all on the same team.... us against the books... i lost 273.... not 5k

If i should get buried... talk to me then...

I don't want to talk to you. I want to bury you.

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#262
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:07:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:

it doesnt matter......im winning.....no one understands this..... if i was on here and my record was 20-15, and i was down 5,000 dollars, then i could see what ur saying.... i'm up plenty for the year.... up plenty betting favorites.... meanwhile, 95% of the posters on here are losing... 

this is simple math.... i am winning....

if i lose my behind or something... i can understand the hating...  

winning is winning, and losing is losing.... doesnt matter if you are -500 or -110....  i'm winning...

if i should happen to get buried....talk to me then

i just won 10 in a row...I lost a game.... cmon fellas....we are all on the same team.... us against the books... i lost 273.... not 5k

If i should get buried... talk to me then...


So my question is since your sticking with your strategy...what is your next bet going to be, as in how much are you going to risk. because we know it will be -400 or higher...so?
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#263
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:09:25 PM
I will say, ANYONE who is dumb enough to take the bogus prices the books offer on these RRL's is going to get murdered. There is absolutely no way around it.

But strictly speaking from a possible perspective of closing the gap, even to a -420, +400 type range....

I would be very curious to see the results over the long term.
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#264
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:10:06 PM
"You only pay juice when you lose"

Quote of the day
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#265
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:11:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:



winning is winning, and losing is losing.... doesnt matter if you are -500 or -110....  i'm winning...



And much better to be 10-1 and +8.9 units than 10-1 and +5.5 units, right?


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#266
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:12:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neverlayoff:



So my question is since your sticking with your strategy...what is your next bet going to be, as in how much are you going to risk. because we know it will be -400 or higher...so?

I will probably go to win 125 to $150 on my next 2 bets (because I am going to listen to some of you here) .....not straight martingale....when your betting big favorites in baseball....something similar to OSCARS GRIND is the way to go
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#267
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:14:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



And much better to be 10-1 and +8.9 units than 10-1 and +5.5 units, right?



Both are great...winning.

But 10-1  +5.5 units is alot easier my friend.
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#268
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:16:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by madshooter72:

Oak Reverse RL +375  it is.....thanks  

 

               Winning

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#269
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:16:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



No I did not, I accounted for the difference in juice and explained what you would need to make it happen. I'm not talking bogus high juice books that 99% of us use. (including me) I'm talking those with access to exchanges.

One slight problem, the people with access to exchanges are tend to be a bit more advance and I doubt in this particular case, anywhere close to +445 would be accepted.

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#270
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:16:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:


Both are great...winning.

But 10-1  +5.5 units is alot easier my friend.


Now you're just being stubborn.
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#271
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:21:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:


I will probably go to win 125 to $150 on my next 2 bets (because I am going to listen to some of you here) .....not straight martingale....when your betting big favorites in baseball....something similar to OSCARS GRIND is the way to go


So your going to risk 600 to win 150 which is you lose your down money...

cmon dude, use the 5.5 units ur up and bet 0.5 units on solid dogs or even money games. example tonight you could get bosox at a small fav barely laying any juice...bet 50$ on that and you win 50....
i dont think you understand that
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#272
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:26:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neverlayoff:



So your going to risk 600 to win 150 which is you lose your down money...

cmon dude, use the 5.5 units ur up and bet 0.5 units on solid dogs or even money games. example tonight you could get bosox at a small fav barely laying any juice...bet 50$ on that and you win 50....
i dont think you understand that

I would still be up money if I lost $600 on my next game....if I lost 3 or 4 in a row, then won 2 or three in a row....i would be right back up to 10 games in the positive.
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#273
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:29:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:

it doesnt matter......im winning.....no one understands this..... if i was on here and my record was 20-15, and i was down 5,000 dollars, then i could see what ur saying.... i'm up plenty for the year.... up plenty betting favorites.... meanwhile, 95% of the posters on here are losing... 

this is simple math.... i am winning....

if i lose my behind or something... i can understand the hating...  

winning is winning, and losing is losing.... doesnt matter if you are -500 or -110....  i'm winning...

if i should happen to get buried....talk to me then

i just won 10 in a row...I lost a game.... cmon fellas....we are all on the same team.... us against the books... i lost 273.... not 5k

If i should get buried... talk to me then...

That's exactly what's wrong with your thinking. It's of course a HUGH difference between -500 or -110.

You keep going back to the well -- you have won 10 in a row. I didn't know which games you had bet on but I assumed they were all high chalk. Did you even calculate how much you would have won had you bet the -1.5 or simply the ML? 1 game today cost you almost half and you still fail to see it??

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#274
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:31:43 PM
na dude im done caring or posting in your threads, im not attacking you at all, im a sportsbettor myself im attacking your system and the way you bet.

you could risk 25$ a game on dogs and even money plays and make more money that way in the longrun even if u went .500

GL in future, adios
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#275
Posted: 8/24/2011 11:32:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:


I would still be up money if I lost $600 on my next game....if I lost 3 or 4 in a row, then won 2 or three in a row....i would be right back up to 10 games in the positive.

WTF?!?!?!? If you lost 3 or 4 in a row the way you bet, YOU'RE DONE. Don't you understand that?? Yeah for normal bettors, that way of thinking is cool, but you're not a flat bettor. You're a fool that bets -455 RRL Favs.

And how much would you need to win in those next 2 or 3 in a row to be up 10 games? $2500 to win $500???

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