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[The Archives] Topic: Hot Seat... Week 1 .... VANZACK |
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Iw1nBets |
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#126 Posted: 2/28/2011 11:49:15 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:
I cant do it in portuguese, but I will tell you that I could write a post that I loved Hitler and it wouldnt get as much negative vitriole (sp?) as that avatar. I posted above in this thread about it, I loved discussing high level math and theory, only to have the person eventually ask me sheepishly if that avatar was really me. I get a sick satisfaction from that - and it cements my theory that humans generally stereotype to get through life.
hmm you do say my lad |
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Iw1nBets |
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#127 Posted: 2/28/2011 11:50:41 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:
GL being a mod. It is a tough, thankless job.
I was actually nervous when I first heard the rumor. Now Im just ready |
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vanzack |
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#128 Posted: 2/28/2011 11:57:27 AM 1. Where do you see the state of the online sportsbetting industry in 5 years? Are we destined to see shops close up and people flocking back to locals so long as it remains illegal for the US market?
I think in 5 years the economics will force the hand of moralists in to legalization, or at least semi-legalization the way marijuana is today. The money is too big, and the momentum is there. But I do think it will get worse before it gets better - and the amount of time in between changes is getting shorter and shorter - in other words its like buying a laptop - what you buy today might be outdated in 4 months so you better keep your eyes and ears open.
2. When you say your goals are in terms of profitability, can you elaborate? Are you talking in terms of a percentage return or actual dollar figure?
It is an actual dollar figure, not a percentage return, although I guess you could make a case that those are closely tied. I know that if I am betting 10 dollars a game, and I can bet 100 games in a season, and I can expect to go 55%, and my juice will be averaged to -103, that my goal amount should be about 85 bucks for that time period. You need the following factors:
1. Amount per unit
2. Amount of units bettable per season (estimate)
3. Expected win percentage (estimate)
4. Average juice
From that, you can come up with a goal. That is what I do for every betting season. Once I reach the goal, or hit a stop gap on the negative side - I re-evaluate for a new goal.
It is profit driven. If I get lucky, go 20-0 out of the gate and hit my goal, I stop and set up a new goal. I dont keep going blindly without evaluating the current landscape.
3. Do you believe you have to watch a lot of a sport (soccer, baseball, football) and really see a lot of teams to successfully cap a sport?
Answered in post #125.
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vanzack |
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#129 Posted: 2/28/2011 12:06:35 PM I assume you need to have significant movement in a line to make money on buying and selling... What do you consider "significant" movement?
Actually, I am very quick to sell. I often sell on 1 cent line moves in MLB. I consider myself to be a roughly 55% capper, so that is not good enough to not take advantage of situations where I can return a profit before the game starts - if I was a 70% capper - I would hold on to a lot more bets.
As far as when I sell, in MLB I have a very rigid system that is driven by thresholds. I have written a lot about this and will try to find it, but it depends on my line, the position I bought, anb how much movement - but there is no thought process - I never say "I really think the A's will win today" type of stuff - I follow a set of rules.
Also, when you hear people say sharp, square, public, or vegas, does your mind go crazy like me and want to beat the garbage out of that person?
For the most part, yes. But I have come to learn that gambling is a lot like anything that humans dont fully understand (religion, medicine, science, probability, superstitions) in that they make up stories to better explain what they dont understand without even being fully aware that they are doing it. Most people at covers believe that "vegas" has a crystal ball and knows the final score. Not some, not one person, BUT MOST PEOPLE.
I used to argue with these morons, but I dont anymore - in the same way that I dont argue religion or politics - I think I have come to a place where I understand that these myths are out there and if the individual doesnt take the time to investigate for themselves - that is like a poker tell for me - it is a reflection on them and it is not my job to convince them otherwise.
But yes, I often feel like the only sane person in a room of crazy people, and scratching my eyeballs out. It can be very frustrating, but it is not limited to gambling - and as I know I am often wrong about things too - I am sure I am often one of these crazy people in someone elses bubble of expertice.
Lastly, what is your advice to me in helping me to keep my mouth shut when going after touts? ( I will be asking everyone this question)
Touthunting should be fun and safe for all parites involved.
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vanzack |
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#130 Posted: 2/28/2011 12:07:16 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by jmitseff:
You going to Brazil for 2014?
Wouldnt miss it for the world.
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vanzack |
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#131 Posted: 2/28/2011 12:09:57 PM What did you do to Wrigs to make him not like you much?
I dont know. I dont know who he is. But I would lay 10-1 that he has mental problems.
How much cash do you walk around with in your pocket everyday?
Sometimes too much. But most days, under 100 bucks. But I have had 200K on my body getting on an airplane once in vegas. Stupid.
Will the Cubs ever win the world series?
Of course. |
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vanzack |
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#132 Posted: 2/28/2011 12:16:45 PM
Not going to mention any names but what is your opinion of wannabe touts posting BS lines, records and using an army of alias's to "atta boy" his every move???
I have to admit this makes me a little crazy, and I have been working on it.
Not so much because someone is getting their rocks off on bullshit - but mostly because it goes against the spirit of helping - which is what I think this forum is for (and entertainment). If I post that I bet the Knicks -2 and they are really -4, what does that do for anyone reading? If I would like to take your advice and bet the Knicks, how do I know if you would bet it at -4? In other words, you are doing NOTHING but advancing your own agenda for attention.
The reason you post picks here is not to brag about them, but to get opinions, and to possibly help others. Consistently posting a false line is the most transparant gesture a narcissist poster can make becaue there is no other agenda possible other than trying to get attention. It is a poker tell.
I know the guys who do it, and I have very little respect for them. It is silly to even argue with them. They deny it, make excuses - but at the end of the day it is for only one reason - to get attention - and that is not why I post here or read others post here.
It is funny to hear them say "that is the line I got, so Im posting it" - but who cares? What does that do for the reader? If you got the Knicks at -2 and it is currently -4, the info that could most help the reader is IF YOU STILL LIKE THE KNICKS AT -4!! A post to say something like "I got the knicks at -2, but at -4 I would lay off" is a perfect way to get both points across - but I realize that might cut in to your huge posted winning percentage, page views, and attention.
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vanzack |
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#133 Posted: 2/28/2011 12:19:42 PM covers phenom articulate and handsome a model's hands in his pants touch and tickle his behind/nuts 
you're a handicapping monster son
 vanzackenstein
my question...........
you like stoke on monday ?
Spock - one of my alltime favorite posters here....
As a matter of fact, I have 1 unit on Stoke at -110 today. WBA is on a crash course for relegation - I see a Rory Delap throw in going right in to the net today. Stoke 2-0.
GL
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vanzack |
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#134 Posted: 2/28/2011 12:20:37 PM Im up to post #77, I will answer all questions, but figure post 77 was a good place to take a breather.
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CMJohnson1 |
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#135 Posted: 2/28/2011 12:30:19 PM |
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5_for_Fighting |
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#136 Posted: 2/28/2011 12:45:30 PM Vanzack
Just catching this thread after a weekend with my computer down 
Not sure if any of these have been asked
 If you were in charge of covers, what improvements would you make
If you were mod for a day, and could ban anyone, for any reason, who would it be
Who do you feel is the best handicapper in the following sports
( please exclude yourself )
That is, who do search for to see there analysis on games, and does it ever sway your thoughts on a game )
NFL Football
NCaa football
basketball
Hockey
Baseball
Who do you feel is the best mod, and why ( moderators, not referees )
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cacabware |
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#137 Posted: 2/28/2011 1:20:20 PM i have to go back and read all of this still---sorry if this has been asked already but myself and clubdirt want you to tell us what happens when we die ?????
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cacabware |
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#138 Posted: 2/28/2011 1:24:56 PM geezus WRIGS,,,,spazzing out of control!!!!
i believe in my ability to point out bullshit posters on covers- and not once have I have questioned anything this dude has ever posted............just my opinion |
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Jimmag |
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#139 Posted: 2/28/2011 1:43:37 PM Not sure if these were asked.
Married or single?
What hair color do you prefer on your women?
On a whim yesterday I took Birmingham City to raise the Carling Cup.  Would you have placed that bet?
Vanzack on the Amazing Race  
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kaponofor3 |
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#140 Posted: 2/28/2011 1:52:13 PM
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ClubDirt |
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#141 Posted: 2/28/2011 2:02:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by cacabware:
i have to go back and read all of this still---sorry if this has been asked already but myself and clubdirt want you to tell us what happens when we die ?????
cacab can speak for me anytime
but if this is a subtle attempt to get vanzack to start talking religion again, i don't think it will be successful. besides, it looks like some new folks have taken the baton in the gd forum. and vanzack appears to understand the danger of losing iq points at an alarming rate by reading and responding to posts from people like that rostos guy. |
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TRAIN69 |
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#142 Posted: 2/28/2011 2:56:15 PM
You wanted to know why I always got "the best line". As you well know, there are tons of books and loclas out there. Some shade the fav and certain totals. Just like you, I dont get into units or the price of plays. Like I explained, if I buy a hook, I look for a place where the juice has made it more valuable to buy. I play some lines on opening and wait for others. I bet more dogs than favs. All my lines are available (some with buying a hook) or where available if you were a night hawk.
What some of these people need to learn is that it is a double edge sword....the early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese, meaning that jumping on a soft line a wise move, but waiting on others to jump on the bait and raise the line is lesson you must learn if you want to be profitable.
I guess my question is, what do you think of this TRAIN69 character?
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PokinSmot |
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#143 Posted: 2/28/2011 3:02:06 PM
1. Whats the most you ever paid for sex?
2. What type(s) of job do/did you have?
3. Did you set a monetary goal of when to stop gambling? if yes, how much. if no, then i guess you plan on gambling till you die or cant afford to...?
4. Have you ever hit rock bottom? what got you there and how did you get out?
5. Do you believe in E.T.?
6. Have you lied about anything while you are on the Hot Seat?
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URISS2302 |
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#144 Posted: 2/28/2011 3:09:11 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I'm a dinosaur on this site (like yourself) and love to battle with the newbs. However, me and you seem to always butt heads. I read above about posting what the "current line" is, and thats where we had our last debate. I understand what you are saying, but to me thats being truthful. I post what I play and have done so for years. I play some the night before and then post in the morning all of my plays in one thread. If someone wants to aks me if I still like a line, thats fine, but postinga line I didnt play just isnt me. You wanted to know why I always got "the best line". As you well know, there are tons of books and loclas out there. Some shade the fav and certain totals. Just like you, I dont get into units or the price of plays. Like I explained, if I buy a hook, I look for a place where the juice has made it more valuable to buy. I play some lines on opening and wait for others. I bet more dogs than favs. All my lines are available (some with buying a hook) or where available if you were a night hawk. What some of these people need to learn is that it is a double edge sword....the early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese, meaning that jumping on a soft line a wise move, but waiting on others to jump on the bait and raise the line is lesson you must learn if you want to be profitable. I guess my question is, what do you think of this TRAIN69 character? I think you are a friggin box, and is EXACTLY what is wrong with this site .. Take your bullshit lines to the "newbs" who believe your BS lines in your threads
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Cyrax |
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#145 Posted: 2/28/2011 3:09:38 PM Van,
Are you a Billionaire like Bill Gates?
How much money do you wager on each week?
What's the most Money you ever won in a year?
What's the most money you ever lost?
Do you take Vacations every year?
What on-line book or books give you the best odds for each game?
How much do they charge you take money out of your accounts?
What's the most Money they allow you to withdraw each day?
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Hugh_Jorgan |
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#146 Posted: 2/28/2011 3:11:10 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I guess my question is, what do you think of this TRAIN69 character?
Vanzack, if you don't mind, I'll take this easy one …
He is an fool 
Vanzack, you can have the rest of the questions
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TRAIN69 |
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#147 Posted: 2/28/2011 4:31:34 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:
Vanzack, if you don't mind, I'll take this easy one …
He is an fool
Vanzack, you can have the rest of the questions
Just as I thought, the newbs and old retards come out answering questions in someone elses thread. Thats the problem with covers. Stupid people think they arent stupid. Posting only in the P Box means you suck. You know its bad when you agree with uriss 
Carry on Hugh J with your stupid day |
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vanzack |
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#148 Posted: 2/28/2011 4:32:13 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:
covers phenom articulate and handsome a model's hands in his pants touch and tickle his behind/nuts
you're a handicapping monster son
vanzackenstein
my question...........
you like stoke on monday ?
Spock - one of my alltime favorite posters here....
As a matter of fact, I have 1 unit on Stoke at -110 today. WBA is on a crash course for relegation - I see a Rory Delap throw in going right in to the net today. Stoke 2-0.
GL
Stoke 1-0 on a Delap goal!!
I have a crystal ball.
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captjohn67 |
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#149 Posted: 2/28/2011 4:33:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Just as I thought, the newbs and old retards come out answering questions in someone elses thread. Thats the problem with covers. Stupid people think they arent stupid. Posting only in the P Box means you suck. You know its bad when you agree with uriss
Carry on Hugh J with your stupid day
you know that's not true... |
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RickeM |
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#150 Posted: 2/28/2011 4:34:38 PM  |
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