Posted: 2/27/2011 10:55:35 PM
What percent of you total gambling bank roll are you playing with on a monthly basis? Related, what are you willing to lose % wise of your total available funds on a monthly basis?
My "total gambling bank roll" is hard to define. And I dont use arbitrary time periods like "months" to factor in to anything. I use time frames like seasons, and terms like bankroll are goals to me. Im not being evasive or a person - just explaining that those terms dont really apply to what I do. I set a goal, and I set a stop gap on the downside, and I evaluate both after every set of wagers. So in a football season, I set a goal. My goal is calculated from some very specific inputs (look in the archives for a thread with "manifesto" in the title) - if you have the 6 inputs I describe in that thread - you can easily determine a betting amount. Mine are very realistic, and would be considered pedestrian by lots of people. I am a grinder. I look for value and I bet it - hopefully in volume.
I have had terrible months, but nothing where I would say "I need to stop because this is a bad month, I will pick it back up on the first of next month" - the time period of a month is not so important to me. But I have had months where I have been on my knees. It happens to everyone.
Would you consider playing on credit at this point? If you lost all the money you have available and allocated, would you stop or keep playing on a credit basis?
I would and do play on credit, but not because I need credit. It is more the landscape of certain "arrangements" I have in order to bet at places like Pinnacle and Betfair. I would never bet money I dont have, and if I ever got close to losing a lot of my money, I would stop gambling long before I would even be faced with that decision - but the decision would be no - it goes against why I do this.
Do you use a system (someone's or your own to determine games) or do you just break a game down by the numbers?
Very simply -
For me, I come up with a gut line - a 2 minute thought process that puts a line where I think the RESULT will land, NOT predicting the betting line. Then I run numbers and come up with a statistics line.
I mash them together - depending on what is working lately - and what time of the season it is (late means more stats) - and come up with a line.
Now that I have a line, I compare it to the real line. Depending on the difference between my line and the available market line, I bet accordingly.
And it is very important to look backwards at results. Tweak your formulas and your gut based on results. As simple as it sounds - I think this is the critical flaw of most gamblers - once a game is over they move on and dont learn anything. Compare how close your line is to the real results - and come up with some kind of analysis that will help tweak your process.
Have you ever considered quitting gambling due to poor performance? For example, maybe you lost you behind a few months ina row.
I think anyone would be lying if they said they hadnt had a time where the losses were trying your last nerve. But honestly, nothing - and I mean not even 20 game losing streaks - have made me consider quitting gambling than right now. And it has nothing to do with losing or winning, it has to do with what I have to go through to get wagers down, and collect winnings or pay losings, and the amount of risk I take on to do it.